JASMY: Momentum Breakout into Heavy Supply—Plan the Dip, Not the Chase

Executive summary and 24h view

• Current price: 0.010559. The last 24 hours show a decisive intraday trend reversal from the 0.0089–0.0092 base into a momentum breakout that is now pressing into a dense resistance cluster between 0.0107 and 0.0111. The immediate risk/reward improves if we patiently buy a pullback rather than chase into resistance. Base case for the next 24 hours: shallow retrace toward 0.01015–0.01025, then continuation to test 0.0109–0.0111. Secondary scenario: a deeper mean-reversion probe into ~0.0100–0.01005 before rebounding.

Multi-timeframe market structure

• Daily structure: Medium-term trend has been down since August (series of lower highs from ~0.019 → ~0.015 → ~0.0115). A capitulation-style selloff on Oct 10 (intraday low 0.00488, close 0.00926) set a long lower wick, then price based in 0.009–0.011 range. The Nov 3–4 drop to 0.00843 looks like a spring/stop-run (Wyckoff Phase C) followed by a sharp sign-of-strength rally into today’s highs. Today’s move closes price back above the mid-October value area (~0.0101–0.0106), but key daily resistance remains 0.0107–0.0113 (prior supply and swing highs on Oct 23–26 and Oct 12–13).
• Hourly structure (Nov 6–7): Clear sequence of higher highs/higher lows from ~0.00897. Momentum legs:
  1. 0.00897 → 0.00936, retrace ~0.00911;
  2. 0.00911 → 0.01008, retrace ~0.00996;
  3. 0.00996 → 0.01064; Consolidation now 0.01045–0.01064. This looks like a 5-wave impulse with an ongoing micro-flag near the highs, into overhead resistance.

Support and resistance map (nearest pivots)

• Immediate resistance: 0.01071 (Oct 23/29 highs), 0.01086–0.01102 (Oct 26/12/13 closes and supply shelf), 0.01134 (Oct 13 pivot).
• Immediate support: 0.01039–0.01048 (hourly breakout shelf), 0.01015–0.01025 (1H 20EMA/BB mid-band zone and micro H-L pivot), 0.01000–0.01005 (round-number node and prior 1H consolidation), 0.00968 (Oct 17 close/pivot), 0.00903 (Nov 3 close).

Moving averages and trend filters

• Daily: Price likely reclaimed the 20D SMA/EMA cluster; still below the 50D trend filter, keeping the medium-term trend neutral-to-bearish but improving. A daily close above ~0.0111–0.0113 would begin to neutralize the medium-term downtrend.
• Hourly: Bullish alignment (8/13/21/50 EMAs stacked upward). Price extended 5–8% above session VWAP/MA bands, increasing pullback risk to the 1H 20EMA (~0.01015–0.01025).

Momentum oscillators

• RSI (daily): Recovering from oversold and likely in the 55–60 zone—bullish but not overheated. This supports continuation if dips are bought.
• RSI (1H): Overbought (>70) during the 15:00–19:00 surge; now flat to slightly diverging as price consolidates under resistance. This favors a near-term pullback or sideways digestion before the next leg.
• MACD (daily): Histogram turning positive with signal-line curl-up—early-stage momentum reversal.
• MACD (1H): >0 and widening earlier; now flattening—consistent with a pause/pullback scenario.

Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (daily): Price riding or just outside the upper band; typical behavior is a 1–3 bar mean reversion toward the mid-band if no immediate follow-through.
• Bollinger Bands (1H): “Band ride” from 14:00 onward; now pinching slightly as price ranges, suggesting a flag. A tag of the middle band (~0.0102) would be a high-quality dip-buy.
• ATR (daily): Expanded volatility since Nov 3–4. Expect 24h range of ~6–10% (0.0006–0.0010) around spot.

Ichimoku (trend + equilibrium)

• 1H: Price above cloud; Tenkan > Kijun; leading span green—bullish. Ideal pullback often finds Kijun/Cloud edge support around 0.01015–0.01025.
• Daily: Likely transitioning from below-cloud to cloud-base zone. A daily close >0.0111–0.0113 would begin to clear the cloud/supply overhead.

Volume, OBV, and VWAP

• Volume: Strong expansion 14:00–19:00 confirms the breakout leg. The last few hours show lighter but still supportive volume during consolidation—healthy for a continuation pattern.
• OBV (heuristic): Rising intraday, aligning with price—no distribution signature yet.
• VWAP: Session/anchor from yesterday sits near ~0.0097–0.0099; price is extended above, elevating the probability of a controlled reversion toward the 0.0101–0.0102 area before next push.

Fibonacci mapping

• Swing Oct 23 high (0.01071) → Nov 4 low (0.00843):
  • 61.8% = ~0.00984 (reclaimed), 78.6% = ~0.01022 (now support candidate), 100% = 0.01071 (first major resistance). Price is currently between 78.6% and 100% retrace—typical pullback zone before attempting to break the origin high.
• Intraday Nov 6 low (0.008935) → Nov 7 high (0.010639):
  • 38.2% pullback = ~0.00999, 50% = ~0.00979, 61.8% = ~0.00959. The uptrend is so far holding above 38.2%, indicating strong momentum; a retest of ~0.0100–0.0102 would be a textbook shallow retrace.

Wyckoff, liquidity, and orderflow cues

• The Nov 4 low behaves like a spring. Today’s rally is a sign of strength; ideal next step is an LPS (last point of support) on a pullback to ~0.01015–0.01025, then markup toward 0.0109–0.0111.
• Liquidity pools:
  • Above: 0.01071 (swing high stops), 0.01086–0.01102 (clustered highs), and 0.01134 (daily pivot). A break and hold above 0.0111 can trigger stop-driven expansion toward 0.0113–0.0115.
  • Below: 0.01039–0.01048 and the round 0.0100 handle (resting bids, late long stops).

Pattern read

• 1H bull flag/pennant forming under resistance with rising MAs and solid prior impulse—statistically favored to resolve higher after a brief consolidation or a controlled dip.
• Daily shows a nascent reversal attempt from a multi-week downtrend; however, medium-term supply overhead implies “buy-the-dip” is preferable to chasing.

Probabilistic 24h scenarios

• Bullish continuation (60%): Pullback to 0.01015–0.01025, then leg up to 0.0109–0.0111; extension possible to 0.0113 on stop sweep if momentum persists.
• Sideways consolidation (25%): 0.0100–0.0106 range builds value before a later break.
• Bearish rejection (15%): Failure at 0.0107–0.0110 leads to a deeper mean reversion toward 0.0098–0.00995; structure remains constructive unless 0.00968 breaks.

Trade plan logic and execution

• Edge: Strong short-term momentum, improving daily trend quality, and a clean nearby pullback zone aligned across BB mid, 1H Kijun/20EMA, and 78.6% daily retrace (~0.0102).
• Tactics: Place a buy-limit near 0.01020 to avoid chasing into 0.0107–0.0111 supply. Target the underside of the next daily resistance cluster around 0.0110–0.0111 for a measured 24h take-profit.
• Risk management (contextual, not part of the required fields): A protective stop would typically sit under 0.00968 (invalidates the breakout structure), yielding an attractive R:R when targeting ~0.01105.

Bottom line

• Momentum-backed breakout into resistance calls for a pullback entry. Expect a dip to ~0.01015–0.01025 followed by another push to test 0.0109–0.0111 within 24 hours. The higher-timeframe downtrend is softening but not fully reversed; therefore, buy-the-dip is favored over breakout-chasing.