JASMY poised for a dip‑and‑rip: buy the 0.0100 pullback, target the 0.0106 supply

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bullish within a developing base. Expect a 0.00980–0.01060 range, with upside attempts toward 0.01035–0.01060 if 0.01010–0.01015 holds as intraday support.
• Plan: Buy pullbacks near 0.00990 to ride a push into the 0.01050–0.01060 supply. Take profit just below overhead resistance.

1. Market structure and trend (multi‑timeframe)

• Daily: Primary trend remains down since August, but price carved out a capitulation leg (Oct 3–Nov 4) to 0.00784 and has been basing. The last three weeks show a series of higher reaction lows (0.00843 on Nov 4 → 0.00898 on Nov 6 → 0.00965 intraday on Nov 8), indicating a potential trend transition from distribution to accumulation.
• 4h/1h: Short-term structure is constructive. The sequence of rising lows from 0.00965 to ~0.00980 alongside a flat-to-slightly-rising ceiling at ~0.01030–0.01035 creates a nascent ascending triangle. A sustained hourly close above ~0.01034 would target ~0.0109–0.0110, but likely capped near 0.0106 within 24h given overhead supply.

2. Key levels (confluence of S/R, volume nodes, prior highs/lows)

• Immediate resistance: 0.01030–0.01035 (intraday supply/ceiling), 0.01058–0.01064 (Nov 7 high and 0.886–0.90 Fib cluster), 0.01086–0.01101 (late‑Oct supply/close cluster).
• Immediate support: 0.01010–0.01015 (session VWAP band intraday), 0.00990–0.01000 (round‑number shelf/HVN), 0.00965–0.00970 (Nov 8 session low and prior pivot), 0.00912–0.00935 (late‑Oct swing shelf).
• Volume profile (visual approximation): A pronounced high‑volume node around 0.01000 suggests mean‑reversion magnet; a lighter volume pocket 0.01030–0.01055 implies faster travel if broken but also faster rejection.

3. Moving averages and trend filters

• Daily SMA20 ≈ 0.01002: Price is currently marginally above, favoring a short‑term bullish tilt and mean‑reversion upswing.
• Daily SMA50 (downsloping and materially above price): Confirms longer‑term downtrend still intact; rallies face supply at each former support shelf.
• 4h EMA20 > EMA50 (near parity but curling up): Confirms short‑term momentum has turned positive.

4. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14) ≈ 43: Neutral‑bearish but rising; room to move toward 50–55 without being overbought.
• 4h RSI around low‑50s: Supports a grind higher, with shallow pullbacks likely.
• Stochastic (4h): Recently cycled down from overbought toward midline, consistent with a buy‑the‑dip setup rather than a breakdown.

5. MACD (trend/momentum blend)

• Daily MACD histogram flipped positive after Nov 6–7 pop; signal cross is forming/just occurred. This favors upside follow‑through toward the next supply band before momentum wanes.
• 4h MACD remains above zero but flattening, aligning with a pause/pullback into support before the next push.

6. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) daily (approx.): 0.0007–0.0010 after the Oct 10 shock. A typical 24h swing of ~0.0006–0.0009 implies a feasible reach from 0.01010 to ~0.01055–0.01100 if momentum reignites, while downside to ~0.00970 is a standard test.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2) daily: Midline ~0.01002, upper ~0.0114, lower ~0.0086 (est.). Price sits just above the midline with room toward the upper band; not yet stretched.

7. Ichimoku (daily)

• Price below a bearish Kumo; Tenkan likely ~0.0099–0.0100 and Kijun near ~0.0103. Price hovering between Tenkan and Kijun often resolves with a test of the Kijun. A clean daily close above ~0.0103 would open a path to ~0.0106; failure would likely mean another Tenkan pullback (~0.0099).

8. Fibonacci mapping (Oct 26 high → Nov 4 low)

• Swing high ~0.01095; swing low ~0.00784. Key retraces: 0.618 ≈ 0.00976 (held), 0.786 ≈ 0.01028 (current headwind), 0.886 ≈ 0.01058 (next resistance). This aligns closely with the intraday resistance stack and suggests a reasonable 24h target at 0.01055–0.01060 if buyers sustain control.

9. Candles and patterns

• Nov 7: Wide‑range bullish expansion off higher low. Nov 8 (current): Small‑bodied candle/doji near 0.01012—indecision at resistance, typically resolved by a minor dip before continuation.
• Intraday: Micro ascending triangle (rising lows vs flat top ~0.01030–0.01035). Pattern supports a range break higher if buyers defend 0.01000–0.01010 on dips.

10. Pivot points (derived from Nov 8 H/L/C; estimates)

• Pivot P ≈ 0.01004
• R1 ≈ 0.01043, R2 ≈ 0.01073
• S1 ≈ 0.00974, S2 ≈ 0.00935 These align with our support/resistance map and guide targets/entries: buy closer to P/S1, aim toward R1/R2.

11. Wyckoff/Order‑flow lens

• Post‑selloff structure resembles Phase B/C of an accumulation range with shakeouts to 0.0084–0.0090 and absorption near 0.0100. OBV (qualitatively) has stabilized and tilted upward since Nov 4, indicating demand on upswings and lighter selling on pullbacks.

12. Regression/channel analysis

• Short‑term linear regression (last ~2–3 days) slopes up modestly with standard error bands containing pullbacks to ~0.00990–0.01000. A touch of the lower band is a favorable risk‑adjusted entry for a continuation attempt.

13. Risk factors and invalidation

• A firm hourly close below 0.00965 would negate the ascending triangle and increase odds of revisiting 0.00912–0.00935. A clean break above 0.01035 would accelerate toward 0.01058–0.01064, but failure twice at 0.01030–0.01035 could trap late longs and mean‑revert to ~0.01000.

14. 24‑hour path expectation (probabilistic)

• Base case (55%): Early dip to 0.00990–0.01000, then rotation up toward 0.01035; if broken, extension to 0.01055–0.01060 where supply caps the session.
• Bear case (25%): Loss of 0.01000, test 0.00970–0.00975 (S1 zone); buyers defend; close near 0.00995–0.01005.
• Bull extension (20%): Direct breakout over 0.01035 without meaningful dip; quick push to 0.01058–0.01064; shallow consolidation above 0.01035.

Trade rationale and execution

• Rationale: Short‑term momentum positive above SMA20 and intraday higher lows. Confluence supports buying dips near the HVN/Pivot (~0.0100), targeting the 0.886 Fib/overhead supply (~0.0106). Risk is clearly defined below 0.00965 (structure invalidation).
• Execution: Use a limit buy around 0.00990 (inside the pullback pocket 0.00990–0.01000). First target at 0.01058 (just below resistance cluster 0.01058–0.01064) to front‑run offers.
• Optional risk control (not part of output): Stop ~0.00958 (below structure and S1), yielding an approximate R:R of ~2.3:1 to 2.5:1.

Bottom line

• The weight of evidence (SMA20 reclaim, MACD turn, rising intraday lows, Fib confluence to 0.01058) favors a buy‑the‑dip approach with a realistic 24h target just under the 0.886 retrace and prior intraday supply.