JASMY poised for a tactical mean‑reversion pop: aiming for R2 as bears take a breather

Summary view and thesis

• Direction next 24h: Mildly bullish (tactical mean-reversion bounce) within a broader daily downtrend. Expect intraday range centered 0.00800–0.00885 with upside skew toward 0.00875–0.00885; a stretch target into 0.00890–0.00905 if momentum improves. Key invalidation if 0.00758–0.00775 breaks.

Step-by-step technical audit (multi-framework)

1. Price action and structure

• Regime shift: The Oct-10 capitulation (0.0124 → 0.00926, 90M+ volume) reset the trading range lower. Since early Nov, JASMY has formed persistent lower highs and lower lows, culminating in the 11-17 low at 0.00787 and a further dip to 0.00795 close on 11-19.
• Current: 0.008404 is +5.7% above yesterday’s close (0.007952), reclaiming yesterday’s R1 pivot and probing early-session resistance. Short-term posture improving, but price remains below key MAs, so bias is a countertrend bounce rather than a trend reversal.

2. Moving averages (trend filter)

• SMA(10) ≈ 0.008724: Price below, but attempting to reclaim; this is the first upside target in a bounce.
• SMA(20) ≈ 0.009168: Higher resistance and mean-reversion magnet if momentum extends; still above price, confirming the daily downtrend.
• SMA(50) (approx) ≈ 0.0115–0.0120: Well above price; medium-term trend firmly bearish.
• EMA(12) vs EMA(26): EMA(12) ~0.0088–0.0089; EMA(26) ~0.0096–0.0099 (est.). MACD (12/26/9) negative but histogram likely improving today as price advances. Read: bearish trend with early signs of momentum inflection.

3. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) ≈ 39 on the last close; with the early bounce, intraday RSI likely 41–44. Sub-50 but rising → rebound from bearish/neutral zone; not overbought.
• Stochastic (14,3,3) (approx): %K near 30–35% (range: LL=0.007577 on 11-18; HH=0.010246 on 11-10). Turning up from oversold → supports a near-term pop.
• Williams %R ~ -65% to -70%: Emerging from oversold; room to run before overbought.
• CCI(20) likely around -70 to -100 on last close, lifting toward -30 today → constructive mean reversion backdrop.

4. Volatility and Bollinger Bands

• BB(20,2): SMA20 ≈ 0.009168; estimated 20D stdev ≈ 0.0008 → Bands ~ [0.00757, 0.01077]. Yesterday’s close was near the lower band; today’s uptick is a classic lower-band rejection. Mean reversion probability elevated toward the middle of the bands (≈ SMA20), with near resistance at 0.00875–0.00917.
• ATR(14) ≈ 0.00065–0.00070 based on recent true ranges (0.00062–0.00087). Implies typical daily move ~7–8% at current price. Today’s 5–6% lift is within normal amplitude; another 2–4% extension is feasible without regime change.

5. Pivots (classic, using 11-19 H/L/C = 0.008444 / 0.007622 / 0.007952)

• Pivot P = (H+L+C)/3 ≈ 0.008006
• R1 = 2P − L ≈ 0.008390 (now reclaimed by current price)
• S1 = 2P − H ≈ 0.007568 (confluent with BB lower band)
• R2 = P + (H − L) ≈ 0.008828 Interpretation: Price just pushed above R1 early; typical path in a rebound day is a test toward R2 (0.00883), with intraday pullbacks often retesting R1 (0.00839) as support.

6. Fibonacci mapping (near-term swing)

• Swing high 11-07: 0.010175; swing low 11-17: 0.00787 (range = 0.002305).
• 23.6% = 0.008414 (current price sits right at this shelf)
• 38.2% = 0.008752
• 50.0% = 0.009023
• 61.8% = 0.009295 Read: Clearing 0.00841 sets up 0.00875 next, then 0.00902 if momentum persists; note 0.00902 aligns with the psychological 0.009 and sits below SMA20 (0.00917), a realistic stretch in a strong session.

7. Support and resistance map (confluence)

• Support: 0.00758–0.00775 (S1, BB lower, recent intraday low 11-18 at ~0.007577); 0.00800–0.00806 (pivot P, round number).
• Resistance: 0.00839 (R1, now flip-support), 0.00875–0.00883 (Fib 38.2% + R2), 0.00900–0.00905 (round + Fib 50%), 0.00916–0.00928 (SMA20 + Fib 61.8%).

8. Volume and OBV

• Post-crash, rallies have seen decent volume (e.g., 11-07 spike to 0.01017 on elevated volume), but subsequent declines show persistent sell pressure and OBV erosion. The last few days’ volumes are moderate (18–46M), not capitulative. A sustainable reversal would need OBV to break prior downtrend; for the next 24h, a bounce doesn’t require that—just sufficient demand to tag R2.

9. Ichimoku (daily, approximations)

• Tenkan (9) ~ midpoint of last 9 high/low ≈ (0.010246 + 0.007577)/2 ≈ 0.008912; price remains below Tenkan but aiming toward it.
• Kijun (26) ~ midpoint of 26-period high/low ≈ around 0.0102–0.0103; well above price. Cloud likely above price → bearish regime. Interpretation: Countertrend lift toward Tenkan is common; full reversal unlikely in 24h.

10. Market geometry

• Descending channel from early Nov: Today’s push appears to be toward the channel midline. The 0.00875–0.00885 zone aligns with channel midline/upper-third for a typical reaction.
• Elliott wave sketch (micro): A 5-leg decline into 11-17, then an ABC correction underway. 11-18 (A up), 11-19 (B pullback), 11-20 (C up) targeting 0.00875–0.00902 completes a proportional correction.

11. Statistical/mean-reversion setup

• Z-score vs SMA20 roughly (0.00795 – 0.00917)/0.0008 ≈ -1.5 on last close; today’s early lift reduces that to about -0.96. Historically, a reversal day from -1.5 sigma often attempts a 0.5–1.0 sigma retrace → target band 0.00875–0.00915 is consistent.

12. Risk assessment and scenarios (24h)

• Base case (60%): Hold above 0.00835–0.00839 (R1 retest) and grind toward 0.00875–0.00885 (R2/Fib 38.2). Close near 0.0087–0.0088.
• Bullish extension (25%): Momentum carries into 0.00890–0.00905 (Fib 50%/round), potentially wicking toward 0.00910 before sellers at SMA20 temper price.
• Bearish fade (15%): Failure to hold R1; slip back to 0.00806–0.00800 (pivot P). Only a decisive break of 0.00775/0.00758 opens a fresh leg lower; probability lower today given early strength.

Synthesis and trade logic

• Edge source: Lower-band rejection + reclaim of R1 pivot + oscillator lifts from sub-40 RSI + confluence target at R2 and Fib 38.2%.
• Headwind: Dominant daily downtrend (price under SMA20/50; negative MACD). Thus treat as tactical long with modest targets and quick invalidation below R1/Pivot.

Execution plan (24h swing)

• Entry preference: Buy on a minor pullback into 0.00836–0.00840 zone (R1 retest/pullback entry) to improve R:R. If momentum doesn’t pull back, a breakout entry above 0.00846 is acceptable but with a slightly higher risk.
• Take-profit focus: First target R2/Fib 38.2 confluence near 0.00883; optional runner toward 0.00895–0.00902 if breadth improves.
• Risk control (not requested but prudent): Invalidation below 0.00775 (beneath S1/structure). For tighter risk, a stop below 0.00800 pivot risks a shakeout but improves R:R.

Bottom line

• Expect a countertrend bounce during the next 24 hours into 0.00875–0.00885, with potential overshoot toward 0.0090. Plan is a tactical long on a dip-to-R1 retest with take-profit near R2.