JASMY: Sell the Weak Bounce into 0.00755–0.00760 — Target 0.00720 in the Next 24 Hours

Executive summary and 24h path

• Current: 0.007385. Price is pressing a well-watched support shelf (0.00733–0.00740) inside a broader November downtrend of lower highs/lows. Momentum is weak, volatility compressed intraday, and selling pressure persists on rallies.
• Base case (60%): Shallow bounce into 0.00750–0.00758 supply, then fade to 0.00725–0.00730 within 24h.
• Bear case (25%): Clean breakdown through 0.00723 with acceleration to 0.00705–0.00695.
• Bull case (15%): Sustained reclaim above 0.00776 invalidates the short, opening 0.00820 (20D SMA) tests.

Multi-timeframe structure

1. Daily trend and market structure

• Trend: Strongly bearish since the Oct. 10 regime shift (flash crash to 0.00488 intraday, close 0.00926) with subsequent lower highs (0.01017 on Nov 7 → 0.00972 → 0.00844 → 0.00776) and lower lows (0.00723, 0.00713). Price remains below the 20D/50D SMAs and far below any long-term average.
• Support/resistance map: • Immediate support: 0.00733/0.00735 (today’s intraday cluster), 0.00723 (Nov 21 close), 0.00713 (Nov 23 low), 0.00672 (Nov 21 extreme). • Near-term supply: 0.00750–0.00758 (recent intraday rejection band), 0.00776 (Nov 26 swing high / descending trendline touch), 0.00820–0.00825 (20D SMA zone), 0.00857 (Nov 14 close).
• Pattern read: The 11/22–11/26 bounce resembled a bear-flag that failed at 0.00776; 11/27–11/28 resumed the channel lower. Price now rides the lower Bollinger/Keltner envelopes—a classic area for short, controlled mean reversion rallies that are sold.

2. 4H/1H intraday tone

• Hourly: Tight, overlapping candles; attempts to lift to 0.00758 were sold back toward 0.00739. Lower highs form an intraday descending trendline from ~0.00758 → ~0.00753 → ~0.00742. Microstructure: offers stack above 0.00752/0.00756; bids thin around 0.00733/0.00730.
• Intraday liquidity: Volumes ebb into the weekend; low-liquidity rallies often retrace swiftly in downtrends, favoring “sell-the-bounce” tactics.

Indicator suite

1. Moving averages

• 20D SMA ≈ 0.00821 (computed from last 20 closes). Price is ~10% below it.
• 50D SMA is higher (~0.0100–0.0105 by inspection of Oct–Nov) and sloping down. 20D < 50D (bearish alignment); 200D (not computed precisely) would sit much higher from the Aug–Sep 0.012–0.015 regime.
• Read: All trend MAs firmly bearish; rallies toward the 20D SMA should encounter supply.

2. Momentum (RSI/Stoch/CCI)

• Daily RSI(14) ≈ 30.5 (derived from the provided series): near oversold, but not deeply washed out. Suggests bounce risk exists but within a bearish backdrop.
• Hourly RSI oscillates mid-30s to low-40s, consistent with weak bounces failing under 50.
• Stoch/CCI proxies would similarly show near-lower-band levels, but without a clear bullish cross or divergence on the daily.

3. MACD

• Daily MACD remains negative and below signal; histogram contraction is modest. No actionable bullish cross yet; confirms trend-following shorts remain advantaged into strength.

4. Volatility bands

• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid ≈ 0.00821; current price hugging lower band (~0.00735–0.00740). This positioning often yields short mean-reversion lifts, which in downtrends are sold near mid/upper intraday bands (here 0.00750–0.00758 first, then 0.00776).
• Keltner Channels (EMA20, ATR): Price outside/near lower KC implies oversold pressure but not an exhaustion spike—consistent with controlled grind lower.

5. ATR / expected range

• Recent daily ranges: ~0.00030–0.00050; ATR(14) approximates ~0.00045–0.00055. A 24h swing from 0.00756 back to 0.00720 (Δ≈0.00036) is well within typical realized range and thus achievable.

6. Volume, OBV, and participation

• Down days repeatedly carried heavier volume (e.g., Nov 21 64M) than up days. OBV trajectory is net negative—distribution rather than accumulation. Past two sessions show declining volume at lows, hinting at a controlled bleed rather than capitulation.

7. Pivots (using 11/27 H/L/C = 0.007761/0.007547/0.007615)

• Pivot P ≈ 0.0076407; R1 ≈ 0.007734; S1 ≈ 0.007521; R2 ≈ 0.007854; S2 ≈ 0.007428; S3 ≈ 0.007215.
• Current is below S2, often implying mean reversion attempts toward S1 (0.007521) that are then sold. This matches the “sell 0.00752–0.00758” plan.

8. Fibonacci

• Swing Nov 7 high 0.010175 → Nov 21 low 0.007233: • 38.2% = ~0.008357, 50% = ~0.008704, 61.8% = ~0.009044. The late-Nov bounce stalled far beneath 38.2%—a weak corrective profile.
• Micro swing Nov 26 high 0.007761 → Nov 28 low ~0.007332: • 38.2% ≈ 0.007494, 61.8% ≈ 0.007598. Expect supply in 0.00749–0.00760.

9. Ichimoku (directional context)

• Price < Tenkan < Kijun; price well below a thickening daily Kumo. Chikou span below price. Full bearish stack—cloud analysis favors shorting rallies.

10. Donchian / channel perspective

• 20D Donchian lower ~0.006719 (Nov 21). Current trades in the lower third of the 20D channel, typical of a trend phase rather than range.

11. Elliott wave heuristic (qualitative)

• From 0.01017 crest, a 5-wave down count is plausible: impulse to 0.00723 (W3), corrective to 0.00776 (W4), now a final W5 targeting 0.00700–0.0069. Not required for the trade, but consistent with fading bounces.

12. Microstructure, tape, and intraday VWAP

• Hourly highs sold quickly; VWAP drifts lower post-European session; U.S. late session showed no strong dip-bid. Weekend liquidity likely favors stop runs below local supports after small, fadeable upticks.

Synthesis: What moves price next

• Confluence shows: strong higher-timeframe downtrend; daily momentum near but not through oversold extremes; price pressed into lower bands; pivot structure favors a bounce into S1/0.00752 area; heavy overhead supply into 0.00755–0.00760; lack of evidence of accumulation.
• Therefore: Optimal tactic over 24h is to sell a bounce into 0.00755–0.00760, targeting a retest of 0.00725–0.00730, with a break risk to 0.00705–0.00695. Invalidation above 0.00776.

24-hour price path forecast

• Preferred path: 0.00738 → drift to 0.00750–0.00758 during thin-liquidity uptick → sellers reassert → 0.00730 test → probe to 0.00722–0.00720. If 0.00733 fails before any bounce, momentum could slice toward 0.00723 then 0.00713 quickly.
• Invalidation: Consecutive hourly closes above 0.00760 and a decisive break/retest over 0.00776 would force reassessment; only then would 0.00820 (20D SMA) come into play.

Trade plan (short-term tactical)

• Direction: Short the bounce (sell strength).
• Entry (limit/ladder): 0.00755–0.00758 zone. Optimal single print: 0.00756.
• Take profit (24h objective): 0.00720 (front-run 0.00718–0.00722 demand and S3 proximity from pivots).
• Suggested risk (contextual, not part of order output): Stop 0.00778 (above 11/26 swing and descending trendline). R:R ≈ 1.8 from 0.00756 → 0.00720 with 0.00022 risk.
• Contingency: If no bounce and price breaks 0.00733 first, an alternative momentum entry would be a stop-sell 0.00731 aiming 0.00713; but the preferred is still sell-the-bounce given proximity to support.

Why not buy the lower band?

• While RSI ~30 invites mean reversion, trend alignment, failed 38.2% retraces, OBV distribution, and repeated rejections into 0.00755–0.00760 make long setups lower-probability over a 24h horizon unless/until 0.00776 is reclaimed.

Risk notes

• Weekend slippage risk: gaps-through-micro support are common; scale entries and use hard stops.
• If liquidity thins and price overshoots to 0.00760–0.00762, maintain discipline—this is the heart of supply and a good place to be done adding.