JASMY: Sell the Rip Into 0.0073—Rejection at 61.8% Sets Up a 24h Fade Toward 0.0068

Step 1 — Data audit and context

• Instrument: JasmyCoin (JASMY), quote currency USD
• Current price: 0.00696636
• Horizons available: Daily OHLCV from 2025-09-10 to 2025-12-08 and intraday hourly for 2025-12-07–08
• Notable regime change: 2025-10-10 capitulation (low 0.004881, record volume), after which a persistent downtrend with intermittent bounces.

Step 2 — Trend structure across timeframes

• Long-term (3 months): Series of lower highs from ~0.0157 (mid-Sep) to ~0.0109 (late Oct) to ~0.0107/0.0109 (late Oct) to 0.00776 (2025-11-26) to ~0.00738 intraday (2025-12-08). Lower lows persisted to 0.00656 (2025-12-01). Overall bearish channel remains intact.
• Intermediate (4–6 weeks): Downtrend from ~0.010 (early Nov) to ~0.0067–0.0069. Brief rallies failed near prior supply. Structure currently: potential base forming between 0.00656–0.00700 with a neckline supply band ~0.00725–0.00735.
• Short-term (24–72 hours): Bounce from 0.00658–0.00670 support, intraday spike to 0.007387 (2025-12-08 15:00) on high volume, followed by fade back to ~0.00697. Suggests supply present at 0.00725–0.00740.

Step 3 — Moving averages (trend filters)

• SMA(20) daily (approx): ~0.00720–0.00730. Price ~0.00697 is slightly below/near the mid-band — neutral to mildly bearish.
• SMA(50) daily (approx): ~0.0093–0.0098. Price trades well below — bearish medium-term regime.
• SMA(200) daily (approx): >0.012. Still far above — long-term bearish regime intact.
• EMA(9/21) daily (qualitative): 9EMA likely curling up toward price; 21EMA above price. Momentum bounce but no trend reversal confirmation.
• Conclusion: Alignment (20 < 50 < 200) remains bearish; short-term only neutral.

Step 4 — Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) daily (est.): Mid-40s to ~50 after recent bounce. Coming off mild oversold but not overbought — neutral.
• RSI(14) hourly: Flirted with 60–65 on the 15:00 spike, rolled down toward midline — shows fading momentum at resistance.
• Stochastic daily: Likely crossed up from low levels; momentum bounce early stage, not extended.
• MACD daily: Histogram contracting toward zero, potential early bullish cross in coming sessions if price can hold above ~0.0071; for now, still sub-zero — trend momentum still negative.
• MACD hourly: Turned up earlier in the session, now rolling over after the rejection near 0.00738 — suggests consolidation/downside drift.

Step 5 — Volatility and range

• ATR(14) daily (est.): ~0.00050–0.00060. Implies a 24h expected move roughly ±7–9% from spot.
• Bollinger Bands(20,2) daily (est.): Lower band ~0.0065, middle ~SMA20 ~0.00723, upper ~0.0080. Price is near the mid-band; earlier push toward upper-band failed.
• Bandwidth: Moderate; not a squeeze. Favors range-trading around the mid-band unless a fresh catalyst emerges.

Step 6 — Support/Resistance mapping (confluence)

• Immediate support: 0.00665–0.00670 (multiple daily/HOURLY touches: 12/4, 12/7, intraday 12/8 low 0.006687). Below that: 0.00656 (2025-12-01 pivot low) and psychological 0.00650.
• Immediate resistance: 0.00725–0.00740 (intraday 61.8% retrace cluster, today’s 0.007387 high, prior supply). Above: 0.00760–0.00776 (11/26 pivot), then 0.00800 round number.
• Volume/Order-flow tell: 2025-12-08 15:00 hour printed a high-volume push into ~0.00739 with subsequent pullback, signaling responsive sellers at that band.

Step 7 — Fibonacci context

• Swing Nov 22 high 0.00779 to Dec 1 low 0.00656: Range 0.00123. Key retracements: 38.2% ~0.00703, 50% ~0.007175, 61.8% ~0.00732.
• Price tested the 61.8% intraday (~0.00732–0.00739) and was rejected — classic seller defense at golden ratio.
• Current price ~0.00697 hovers near the 38.2% pivot — a balance point. Failure to reclaim and hold 0.00718–0.00722 (50%) keeps bears in control near-term.

Step 8 — Ichimoku (daily)

• Price below Kumo; Kumo likely thick above price due to prior volatility.
• Tenkan-sen curling up, Kijun above price; no bullish TK cross above cloud. Chikou span under price history.
• Verdict: Bearish regime; any bounce is corrective until price reclaims and holds above ~0.0076–0.0078.

Step 9 — ADX and trend strength

• ADX(14) daily (qualitative): Likely sub-20 after the recent slowdown — weak trend; range conditions around mid-band prevail.
• Implication: Mean-reversion setups around well-defined levels favored over breakout chasing unless volume broadens.

Step 10 — OBV, MFI, volume analysis

• OBV daily: Down since mid-October; last sessions show stabilization but no decisive accumulation trend.
• Volume: Today’s total volume upticked (~39M) vs prior days (~22–26M). The rejection at 0.00738 on strong hourly volume suggests supply absorption outpacing demand at that level.
• MFI (qualitative): Likely mid-range; not signaling overbought/oversold extremes.

Step 11 — Pattern diagnostics

• Potential double-bottom zone: 0.00656 (12/1) and 0.00664–0.00670 (12/5–12/7). Neckline ~0.00730. Not confirmed; rejection at neckline today weakens immediate breakout odds.
• Descending channel from early Nov remains intact; today’s high tags upper channel vicinity and fades — respects channel resistance.
• Candles: Intraday long upper wick near 0.00738 (shooting star-like) on high volume, followed by lower closes — short-term bearish for next sessions unless reclaimed.

Step 12 — VWAP/Intraday microstructure (12/08)

• Session VWAP (est.) ~0.00698–0.00702. Price currently slightly below VWAP, reflecting mild intraday distribution post-spike.
• A sustained reclaim of VWAP + 0.00710 with rising volume would be the minimum condition to re-test 0.00725–0.00735; otherwise, drift back toward 0.00680–0.00685 is likely.

Step 13 — Parabolic SAR and SAR-style swing bias

• Daily PSAR likely still above price; hourly PSAR probably flipped during the rally and now threatens a re-flip lower with the fade.
• Bias: Sell-the-rip until daily PSAR flips and holds with follow-through above 0.00735–0.00740.

Step 14 — Multi-method synthesis

• Trend filters (SMAs/Ichimoku/200D): Bearish
• Momentum (RSI/MACD/Stoch): Neutral to modestly bullish bounce but rolling over on hourly
• Volatility (ATR/BB): Moderate; conducive to range-mean reversion trades
• Price action: Rejection at 61.8% and channel resistance; high-volume supply at 0.0073–0.0074
• Net: Within the next 24 hours, a reversion from 0.00720–0.00730 down toward 0.00680–0.00690 is the higher-probability path unless buyers reclaim 0.00735+ on volume.

Step 15 — 24-hour probabilistic path

• Base case (55%): Range-to-down drift. Price oscillates 0.00670–0.00720, fades bounces; tags 0.00680–0.00685 at least once.
• Bull case (30%): Reclaim 0.00718–0.00722 (50% Fib), squeeze through 0.00730–0.00735; topside probe 0.00750–0.00760. Requires rising/expanding volume.
• Bear tail (15%): Clean break 0.00665; tests 0.00656 and possibly 0.00650 on a quick flush.

Step 16 — Trade design (short-term tactical)

• Strategy type: Mean-reversion short against clearly defined supply (0.00725–0.00735), aligned with higher-timeframe downtrend.
• Entry (limit): 0.00724 (front-run supply band; allows fills if price revisits the lower edge of resistance).
• Stop (risk control, not part of output fields): 0.00746 (above 61.8% rejection high zone and above today’s spike, invalidates immediate short thesis).
• Take profit (target): 0.00680 (near the prior intraday support shelf; inside 1x ATR move from entry, offering attractive fill probability and R:R ~2.1:1 vs the suggested stop).
• Contingency: If hourly close >0.00735 on rising volume, stand down on short idea; the trade would be invalidated as momentum turns.

Step 17 — Final call

• Decision: Sell (Short Position)
• Rationale: Rejection at 61.8% retracement and channel resistance, price below 50/200 SMAs and below cloud, OBV not confirming accumulation, and intraday distribution signal at 0.0073–0.0074. Expect 24h pullback toward 0.00680 with risk of 0.00665 if sellers press. Any sustained reclaim above 0.00735 negates.