Kaspa Teeters on the Edge: Short the 4¢ Retest, Aim for 3.69¢

Executive summary

• Instrument: Kaspa (KAS), USD
• Current price: 0.03858854
• Regime: Strong multi-week downtrend; fresh multi-month low today (0.03647). Intraday bounce into the 0.039–0.040 zone is likely to be sold. Base case for next 24 hours: a relief pop toward the broken 0.040 pivot followed by continuation lower toward 0.037–0.036.

Multi-timeframe trend and moving averages

• Daily structure: Persistent sequence of lower highs and lower lows since late August. Major regime change on 2025-10-10 (large gap-down day) shifted price into a lower-value area (0.04–0.06), followed by further deterioration into the high-0.03s.
• Short MAs (approx):
  • 5-D SMA ≈ 0.0414 (price ~6.7% below)
  • 10-D SMA ≈ 0.0438 (price ~11.9% below)
  • 20-D SMA ≈ 0.0468 (price ~17.5% below) Slopes are downward across all three, confirming a bearish, trend-following context.
• Medium MAs: 50-D SMA (not computed precisely, but clearly > 0.05 and sloping down). Price trades well below the 50-D and likely below the 100-D, keeping the path of least resistance lower.
• Trend conclusion: Trend-following tools advocate selling rallies until daily closes reclaim and hold above ~0.042–0.044 (10–20D cluster).

Momentum and oscillators

• RSI(14) Daily (approx): Low-to-mid 20s (oversold). In trending markets, oversold can persist; use it to time bounces into resistance, not to fade the trend blindly.
• RSI(14) 1H: Recovered from sub-30 on the sweep to mid-40s on the bounce but not yet showing strong range expansion. Suggests room for a small pop before momentum stalls.
• Stochastic Daily: Embedded in oversold; historically in this tape, stoch resets to mid-zone on small rallies and then rolls over—bearish continuation pattern.
• MACD Daily: Below zero, signal-line below zero, histogram negative. On 1H, histogram is stabilizing/flattening—a sign of a short-term relief rally, not a trend change.
• Momentum conclusion: Short-term bounce odds are decent, but the higher-timeframe momentum remains decisively bearish.

Volatility and bands

• ATR(14) Daily (approx): 0.0025–0.0030; today’s range 0.00416 indicates volatility expansion (bearish trend with range expansion often continues lower after brief bounces).
• Bollinger Bands (20,2) Daily: Mid ≈ 0.0468; est. lower band ≈ 0.0378. Price is riding the lower band (“lower-band walk”)—a classic bearish state. Mean reversion likely capped near 0.040–0.042 before sellers reassert.
• Keltner Channels: Price outside/near lower envelope—also a “trend-with-volatility” signal, favoring rally sells.

Volume and flow

• Volume regime: Large distribution-day spikes on 2025-10-10 and subsequent down days; recent declines in November remain on respectable volume. Today’s intraday selloff had solid activity; the rebound lacked strong follow-through volume.
• OBV (qualitative): Downtrend since October shock—no sign of accumulation; bounces have not improved OBV.
• Volume conclusion: Supply dominates; rallies on lighter volume likely fade.

Market structure, support/resistance, liquidity

• Fresh low printed today: 0.03647.
• Immediate resistance: 0.0398–0.0406 (round-number pivot + today’s bounce highs 0.04063). Expect supply there.
• Next resistances: 0.0412–0.0424 (prior day pivot R1 ≈ 0.04241, 11/19–11/20 congestion), then 0.0445, 0.0469, and 0.050–0.052.
• Supports: 0.0365 (today’s low), then 0.0350 and 0.0320–0.0335 zone.
• Liquidity behavior: Clear stop-run below 0.040 yesterday/today, swept to 0.0365, then reclaimed 0.038–0.039. Typical behavior: retest the breakdown area (~0.040) to fill leftover offers; if sellers reappear, price rotates back down to sweep today’s low.

Patterns and price action

• Higher time frame: Descending channel/falling wedge appearance from October; however, no bullish break or confirmation—trend continuation until proven otherwise.
• Intraday 1H micro-structure: Small impulse up from 0.0365 to ~0.0406, but failure to put in a higher high after 17:00 hints at rally exhaustion.
• Candlesticks: Long lower wick on today’s low shows responsive buying, but the close is still below the 10/20D averages. Classic “countertrend bounce inside a dominant downtrend.”

Ichimoku

• Daily: Price below Kumo; Tenkan < Kijun; Span A < Span B; Lagging span below price—full bearish stack. Future cloud red.
• 1H: Price below Kumo with flat Kijun above ~0.0398–0.0404 area acting as magnet/resistance; any approach to that zone is a sell candidate.

Fibonacci mapping (swing high to low)

• From Sep swing high ~0.0909 to today’s low 0.0365:
  • 23.6%: ~0.0493
  • 38.2%: ~0.0573
  • 50%: ~0.0637 Immediate implications: Any bounce into 0.049–0.057 would still be countertrend; near-term, price is far below even the 23.6% retrace, underscoring trend strength down.

Pivot points (classic) using 11/20 H/L/C (0.04355/0.03999/0.04006)

• P ≈ 0.04120; R1 ≈ 0.04241; S1 ≈ 0.03885; S2 ≈ 0.03764.
• Today traded below S1 and probed below S2 before rebounding—bearish pressure intact. Expect the underside of S1/P to resist on retests.

VWAP and execution cues (intraday)

• Session VWAP likely near high-0.038s/low-0.039s; price oscillates slightly below/immediately around VWAP late session. Strategy: sell failure to reclaim VWAP sustainably on approach to 0.040–0.0406.

Wyckoff/Elliott framing

• Wyckoff: Ongoing markdown (Phase E). Today’s liquidity sweep resembles a local spring, but the context is not an accumulation range. Treat as a weak spring—typically sold into.
• Elliott (qualitative): Extended five-wave down from October shock with potential but unconfirmed micro wave-5 exhaustion; lacking breadth/volume turn, probabilities still favor continuation after bounce.

Probability-weighted next-24h path

• Base case (55%): Mean-reversion pop to 0.0398–0.0406, rejection at the pivot band, then drift/accelerate back to 0.0372–0.0365; risk of a marginal new low (0.0362–0.0358) before stabilizing.
• Bull case (25%): Strong short-covering through 0.0412; squeeze to 0.0422–0.0430. Sustained hourly closes above 0.0415 would neutralize the immediate short setup and open 0.0445.
• Bear extension (20%): Weak bounce that stalls sub-0.0395 followed by direct breakdown of 0.0365 toward 0.0350 quickly.

Trade plan: Sell the retest of 4 cents

• Rationale: Dominant downtrend, momentum/MA alignment bearish, price riding lower Bollinger band, intraday liquidity sweep with likely retest of the 0.040 pivot/Kijun/VWAP cluster.
• Entry (limit sell): 0.04030 (inside 0.0398–0.0406 supply; improves fill odds while maintaining attractive R:R).
• Target (take profit): 0.03690 (just above today’s sweep low to front-run liquidity; aligns with S2 vicinity and typical day’s ATR range from 0.0403).
• Invalidation (for risk management; not an order field): Hourly close above 0.0415 or a decisive push/hold above 0.0422 implies step aside; trend may be entering a squeeze.

Why not buy here?

• Although oversold conditions can fuel bounces, higher-timeframe trend pressure is strong, and every recent bounce has been sold. The cleaner asymmetry is to fade into 0.040–0.041 resistance with a nearby invalidation, targeting a retest/sweep of 0.0365.

Risk considerations

• Volatility is elevated; size accordingly. If not filled on a bounce, do not chase lows—setup depends on selling strength at resistance. Reassess if price reclaims 0.0415–0.0422 on strong volume.

Bottom line

• Expect a relief rally into 0.0398–0.0406 that fails, followed by renewed downside toward 0.0369 (base case). The trade is a tactical short, not a long-term call; longer-term confirmation would require daily closes back above the 10–20D MAs (0.043–0.047).