Kaspa coiling under R1: poised to probe 0.060–0.061 on a buyable dip

Summary view

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bullish (momentum recovery + constructive consolidation). Expect a grind higher toward 0.059–0.061 with dips likely bought near 0.056–0.0557.
• Key levels: Support 0.0545–0.0553 (Fib 38.2%/recent pivot), 0.0519–0.0521 (50% Fib/Dec 1 close). Resistance 0.0578 (R1), 0.0585–0.0595 (supply), 0.0603–0.0611 (R2/upper band).
• Plan: Buy pullbacks near 0.0562 with TP 0.0607–0.0611. Risk if 0.0545 breaks, momentum stalls.

Step-by-step multi-tool analysis

1. Market structure and trend (Daily)

• Regime shift: After the mid-November capitulation (lows ~0.036–0.040 on Nov 21–22), price printed higher lows and higher highs into Nov 26–28 (peaks ~0.0598–0.0627). A corrective pullback into Dec 1 (~0.0520) held above the 50% retracement of the Nov advance; subsequent rebound places price back in the upper half of the recent range.
• Structure: Higher low at 0.05198 (Dec 1) versus prior swing low at 0.05053 (Nov 25), keeping the daily uptrend intact. Current 0.05680 sits between last week’s supply (0.0585–0.0627) and demand shelf (0.0535–0.0545).

2. Intraday structure (Hourly, Dec 3)

• Up-leg from ~0.0543 to ~0.0589 in early hours, followed by a controlled pullback and compression around 0.056–0.0578. Price is riding above an intraday rising base; buyers defended 0.0556–0.0561 multiple times, indicating dip absorption.
• Micro channel: Higher intraday lows from 04:00 through 21:00, while highs capped below 0.0582–0.0589. This favors a breakout attempt if volume ticks up.

3. Moving averages

• Daily 20SMA ≈ 0.0478 (estimated from last 20 closes). Price is >20SMA by ~+18%, a constructive medium-term sign.
• Daily 50SMA (est.) ~0.058–0.060, flattening from prior downtrend; price is approaching this zone from below/around, typical of a transition from repair to uptrend.
• Hourly EMAs: The 20/50-hr EMAs (proxy via price path) turned up after the early-session rally; price has been oscillating around the 20-hr with support at the 50-hr region, consistent with bullish consolidation.

4. RSI (momentum)

• Daily RSI(14) (est.) ~55–58: out of oversold, mid-range bullish momentum; room to the upside before overbought.
• Hourly RSI(14) ~50–55: neutral-bullish; no negative extremes. This backdrop supports continuation higher if resistance breaks.

5. MACD (trend/momentum blend)

• Daily MACD: Crossed positive in the late-Nov rebound; histogram likely still above zero albeit moderating after the Dec 1 dip. This remains supportive of upside follow-through.
• Hourly MACD: Flattening after the morning pop; a minor reset that often precedes another push in the direction of the higher timeframe trend.

6. Bollinger Bands (Daily)

• 20D mid ≈ 0.0478; upper band (est.) ≈ 0.0615–0.0620; lower ≈ 0.0335. Price near the upper half but below the band’s top, allowing scope to tag 0.061±. Band width has expanded from the Nov lows (volatility returning) but not extreme, which fits a measured advance.

7. Volatility/ATR

• Daily ATR(14) (est.) ≈ 0.0045–0.0050. From 0.0568, a typical 1x ATR push projects 0.0613 topside or 0.0523 downside. With trend bias positive, topside test into 0.060–0.061 is probable within 24h.

8. Fibonacci mapping (swing Nov 21 low 0.03859 → Nov 28 high 0.06274)

• 23.6%: ~0.05704 (current price sits right around this light support/resistance pivot).
• 38.2%: ~0.05352 (confluent with recent demand shelf and Dec 2 close 0.05454).
• 50%: ~0.05066 (aligns with 0.0505–0.0520 support zone).
• 61.8%: ~0.04782 (near 20SMA). Price bouncing between 23.6% and 38.2% retracements is classic shallow-pullback behavior in a new uptrend.

9. Pivot points (Classic, computed from Dec 2 H/L/C ≈ 0.05819/0.05198/0.05454)

• Pivot P ≈ 0.05490; R1 ≈ 0.05783; S1 ≈ 0.05162; R2 ≈ 0.06111; S2 ≈ 0.04869.
• Current 0.05680 is between P and R1, having interacted with R1 (~0.05783) intraday; an upside breach sees 0.0611 (R2) as the next magnet.

10. Volume and OBV/MFI read

• Volume expansion into Nov 25–27 fueled the surge; subsequent volumes contracted on pullbacks—typical of bullish corrections.
• OBV (qualitative): Rising since Nov 21 and stabilizing during the latest consolidation—no distribution signal yet.
• MFI(14) (proxy) mid-high 50s/low 60s: healthy without overbought stress.

11. Ichimoku snapshot (qualitative)

• Price > cloud (Kumo) on recent data; Tenkan (9) likely above Kijun (26); Lagging span above past price action. Together, a bullish Ichimoku stack with price pulling back toward Tenkan—often a buy-the-dip zone.

12. VWAP and anchored VWAP

• Intraday VWAP (today) clusters near 0.0568–0.0571; price hovering around VWAP late session suggests fair value acceptance before next impulse.
• Anchored VWAP from the Nov 21 capitulation likely sits near 0.053–0.054; the market holding above this anchor reinforces the bullish repair regime.

13. Support/resistance map and confluences

• Demand shelf: 0.0535–0.0545 (Fib 38.2%, Dec 2 close, anchored VWAP zone).
• Secondary support: 0.0519–0.0521 (Dec 1 close; near Fib 50%).
• First resistance: 0.0578 (R1), then 0.0585–0.0595 (recent supply cluster), then 0.0603–0.0611 (upper band/R2).
• Daily upper band around 0.0615–0.0620 caps the 24h stretch target.

14. Candles and pattern notes

• Dec 1 printed a hammer-like recovery off ~0.0505–0.0520. Dec 2 confirmed with a higher close. Dec 3 intraday forms a bullish consolidation after an early thrust—a continuation setup if resistance gives.
• The extreme wick on Oct 10 to ~0.0139 appears as an anomaly/liquidity shock; excluding it from typical volatility calculations avoids skewing the risk framework.

15. Harmonic/AB=CD and Elliott-style read (qualitative)

• The Nov 21–28 impulse (A→B) followed by a shallow 23.6–38.2% pullback (B→C) suggests potential for a C→D leg retest of B (0.061–0.063). Micro counts on hourly are corrective, not impulsive down, supporting the expectation of another push up.

16. Probability framing for next 24h

• Bullish continuation toward 0.060–0.061: ~55%.
• Range-bound 0.055–0.058: ~30%.
• Bearish breakdown toward 0.0545 then 0.052: ~15% (would likely require broader risk-off or failed breakout with volume).

17. Trade plan synthesis

• Thesis: Favor buying a controlled dip into intraday demand (0.0559–0.0563), targeting a push to 0.0607–0.0611 within the next session, consistent with R2/upper band and the ongoing repair trend.
• Entry: Use a limit near 0.0562 (inside demand and below VWAP cluster), anticipating a minor liquidity sweep before the next leg.
• Exit (take profit): 0.0607–0.0611; choose 0.0609 to front-run offers clustered at 0.061–0.0611.
• Risk context (not part of output fields but crucial): A sensible protective stop would sit below 0.0545 (Fib 38.2%/shelf), e.g., 0.0542, yielding a roughly 1:1.8 to 1:2.1 R:R depending on fill.

Conclusion

• Multiple tools align: price above 20SMA and cloud; MACD positive; RSI mid-range; Fib map supportive; pivots point to R2 ~0.0611; intraday consolidation atop demand. The path of least resistance remains modestly higher. Buy-the-dip is preferred over chasing breakouts at 0.0585–0.0595.

24-hour price expectation

• Base case: 0.0558–0.0610 range, with a test of 0.060–0.061 likely if 0.0578 clears on expanding volume.
• Upside stretch: 0.0615–0.0620 (upper band) if momentum accelerates.
• Downside risk: A loss of 0.0555 opens 0.0545, then 0.0520 if selling intensifies.