LINK’s Surge Catch-The-Dip Play: Flagging Above 21, Aiming for a 22+ Re-test in 24 Hours

Executive summary

• Primary trend: Strong bullish impulse from 16 → 22+ with accelerating volume; today shows a controlled pullback/inside-day behavior on intraday frames. The structure favors a buy-the-dip continuation within 24 hours toward 22.1–22.5, barring a breakdown below 21.0–20.9.
• Bias next 24h: Moderately bullish. Base case bounce from 21.0–21.3 support to retest 21.9–22.5. Alternative case: a liquidity sweep into 20.6–20.9 before reversing higher.
• Trade idea: Buy on dip around 21.10–21.20 with a 24h take-profit around 22.25. If momentum accelerates, stretch target 22.50; if breakdown, risk to 20.6.

Data context and cleanliness

• Daily trend (May → Aug): Long downtrend bottomed near 11.7–12.0 in late June; July turned up; early August breakout: 8/7 to 8/9 moved 16.7 → 21.9 with very high volume (Aug 8–9 ~1.4–1.48B). Today (Aug 11) open 22.10, high 22.55, low 21.24, close ~21.32 with ~1.27B volume – healthy distribution after a two-day surge.
• Hourly (Aug 10–11): Range 22.55 → 21.24. Bounce attempts stalled at 21.86–22.07 (50–61.8% of the intraday pullback) showing classic measured retrace behavior. Several hourly volume prints are zero (gaps in data feed), so use price structure over volume for micro-level confirmation.

Market structure and price action

• Higher highs / higher lows on daily since Aug 1 (low ~15.76) with successive breakouts through prior July highs (~19.5–19.9). Today’s session made a higher high vs Aug 9, then closed red – a common “throwover + backfill” after a breakout.
• Key daily levels:
  • Supports: 21.30 pivot (intraday base), 21.00 round number, 20.6–20.9 prior breakout shelf (Aug 7–8 ignition zone), 19.9 (Aug 8 close) and 19.3–19.5 (late July congestion).
  • Resistances: 21.86–22.07 (intraday Fibo cluster), 22.55 (session high), 22.90–23.10 (projected extension / round number).
• Intraday micro:
  • Double bottom/accumulation attempt around 21.30 (11:00 and 19:00 hours had lows ~21.30–21.34 with less downside follow-through), suggesting emerging buyer defense.
  • Liquidity sweep to 21.24 anchored the day’s low; failure to revisit it late session implies sellers losing momentum short-term.

Candlesticks and patterns

• Daily (Aug 9): Wide-range bullish candle closing near HOD → trend impulse.
• Daily (Aug 11): Bearish body after a fresh high – functionally a “pullback day” after extension; upper wick not excessive and lower wick shows buyers stepped in above 21.2.
• Pattern: Bull flag/pennant-like consolidation forming on hourly after the vertical ascent; expect resolution upward if 21.9–22.1 breaks on convincing momentum.

Moving averages (approximations)

• 20D SMA rising and likely near 17.5–18.5; 50D around mid-14s to mid-15s; 200D well below. Price comfortably above 20/50/200D → bullish alignment.
• On hourly, 20–50 period MAs have flattened, with price oscillating around them near 21.5–21.9, typical of post-breakout digestion. A reclaim and hold above ~21.90 would re-stack intraday MAs bullishly.

Momentum indicators

• RSI (daily): After the 2-day surge, likely peaked >70 and cooled to high-60s; still bullish with room to continue after reset.
• RSI (hourly): Developed positive divergence vs the 11:00 low—later lows in price were similar/higher while momentum likely improved → early reversal tell.
• MACD (daily): Broadly positive; histogram may be flattening today but not yet crossing down. MACD (hourly) curling up from negative, consistent with basing.
• DMI/ADX: ADX likely elevated from the breakout with +DI > -DI; a brief ADX plateau is normal during consolidation, preserving the trend.

Volatility and bands

• ATR(14D) expanded recently (~1.3–1.6 range units). Today’s true range ~1.31 sits near the lower end of the breakout session ranges → suggests vol compression pre-next impulse.
• Bollinger Bands (daily): Price near upper band on Aug 9; today’s close back inside bands while bands remain expanded → constructive “cool-off” within an uptrend.
• Keltner Channels: Price remains in/near outer channel after an expansion. A band walk pause is healthy before next leg.

Ichimoku

• Price > Kumo; Tenkan above Kijun; Chikou above price → full bullish stack. A pullback to Tenkan (likely ~20.8–21.2) is textbook. Today’s low 21.24 kissed that zone and held.

Fibonacci mapping

• Swing low (June ~12.0) to swing high (Aug 9 ~21.94):
  • 23.6% ≈ 19.6, 38.2% ≈ 18.1, 50% ≈ 17.0. Current 21.3 is well above shallow retrace → momentum-led trend intact.
• Today’s intraday leg (22.55 → 21.24):
  • 50% ≈ 21.89, 61.8% ≈ 22.05. Rebounds repeatedly stalled around these levels during the session—clear local resistance band. A decisive hourly close above 22.05 opens 22.55 retest.

Volume and profile read (inferred)

• Upside days (Aug 8–9) printed the heaviest volumes, validating breakout.
• Expect a prominent volume node around 21.7–21.9 (today’s battle zone). Below, a shelf/low-volume pocket to ~20.9 (Aug 7 ignition) may create fast move zones if 21.0 fails.
• OBV trend is up on the larger timeframe; today is a sideways-to-slightly-down blip, not a structural reversal.

Elliott wave framing (heuristic)

• Wave 1: 15.8 → ~18.0 (early July), Wave 2: pullback to mid-15s/16, Wave 3: 16 → 22+ (Aug 7–9 impulse). Current action resembles Wave 4, often shallow (0.236–0.382 of Wave 3). 0.236 from 16→21.94 sits ~20.9–21.1—exactly where price is probing. Typical outcome: a Wave 5 push targeting 22.9–23.8.

Andrews’ Pitchfork/Channels (qualitative)

• Median-line channel anchored from the July pivot shows support near 21.0–21.2 and upper rail 22.7–23.2. Price is hugging the lower median zone → favorable R:R for a bounce.

Parabolic SAR / Trend stamps (qualitative)

• SAR dots likely flipped below price during the impulse and should trail near ~20.6–20.9; keeps trend bias up until that band is violated.

Donchian/Keltner confluence

• 20-day Donchian upper band reset with the new high; mean reversion has partially occurred toward the mid-channel; confluence with Keltner mid near 21 area favors long-on-dip entries.

Liquidity/Order-flow concepts

• Today likely swept resting liquidity above 22.2–22.5, then flushed into stops near 21.3. With both sides probed, the path of least resistance often reverts to mean → mid-to-upper range (21.9–22.3) before the next directional break.

Scenario analysis (24h)

• Base case (60%): Hold 21.0–21.3 and rotate up to 21.9–22.3, potential spike to 22.5. Catalyst: hourly momentum cross, break/retest of 22.05.
• Pullback first (25%): Quick dip to 20.6–20.9 (gap/ignition shelf) then strong bounce back above 21.5 by end of window.
• Bear shock (15%): Clean break and acceptance below 20.6 leading to 19.9 retest; less likely given higher-timeframe thrust and fresh breakout dynamics.

Risk management notes

• Invalidations: Hourly acceptance below 21.0 warns of 20.6 test; daily close below 20.6 would threaten the breakout structure.
• Stop-loss idea for active traders: 20.65–20.75 (below shelf) for a dip-buy plan from ~21.1. R:R to 22.25 is ~2.2:1.

Execution plan

• Primary: Limit buy near 21.15 (mid of 21.1–21.2 demand) with take-profit 22.25 within 24h.
• Optional contingency: If not filled and price reclaims 22.05 with momentum, a breakout add-on is viable to target 22.50, but this is secondary to the dip-entry.

Conclusion

• The multi-tool read (trend, momentum, retrace geometry, and microstructure) favors a continuation higher after a textbook shallow Wave-4/flag pullback. Optimal tactical entry is a buy-the-dip at ~21.15 with a 24h target near 22.25, aligned with intraday Fibo resistances and the prior local high zone.