Chainlink Price Analysis Powered by AI

LINK ignites above August highs: buy-the-dip setup targets 28.5 in the next 24 hours

Comprehensive multi-timeframe technical analysis for Chainlink (LINK)

Timeframe context used

Market structure and trend

Primary trend (Daily): Strongly bullish. A higher low printed on 2025-08-16 (22.6522) after a sequence of higher highs since early August. Today broke above the 2025-08-20 swing high (26.8567) and extended to 27.735.
Intraday structure (Hourly): Ascending sequence with a clean breakout phase beginning at 14:00 UTC (candle close 26.1551 after a sharp expansion), continuation to 27.73 at 16:00, and a controlled pullback/consolidation into 26.94–27.21. Buyers defended 26.79–26.94 (18:00–20:00 hours).
Key swing levels (Daily):
- Major support: 24.70–25.00 (23.6% fib of current upswing + prior resistance now turned support), 26.15 (hourly breakout retest pivot), 26.66 (hourly R1 close zone), 24.35 (intraday low cluster zone).
- Resistance: 27.73 (today’s high), 28.00–28.20 (psych/round and prior supply reaction band), 28.80 (fib extension 1.272), 30.60 (fib 1.618 projection of the latest swing).

Moving averages and crossovers

20-day SMA ≈ 21.87 (computed from last 20 closes). Price is ~23% above the 20SMA, confirming trend strength but also short-term stretch.
50-day SMA (approx): Rising and below price; given June lows near 12–13 and July in 17–20 range, 50SMA likely ~18–19. Bullish slope and price well above it.
Short-term EMAs (8/21 approximations): EMA8 ~25.9–26.2, EMA21 ≈ 22–23; bullish stack (price > EMA8 > EMA21), indicating ongoing momentum.

Momentum indicators

RSI (Daily, qualitative): Likely in high 60s–70s after a multi-day surge; can stay elevated in strong uptrends. No clear daily bearish divergence versus the prior swing (new price high followed by strong momentum expansion).
RSI (Hourly, qualitative): Overbought spike during 14:00–16:00 breakout, cooling through sideways consolidation while price holds > VWAP; constructive reset without structural damage.
MACD (Daily): Positive and rising; histogram expansion since 08-16–08-17 impulse. Signal-line crossover bullish earlier in August; no bearish cross evident.
MACD (Hourly): Positive above zero-line; histogram peaked into the 16:00 high, then compressed with price holding elevated—typical continuation behavior if pullbacks remain shallow.
Stochastics (qualitative): Overbought on intraday but can embed in trends; not a sell signal by itself.

Volatility and ranges

ATR (Daily, qualitative): Expanded notably from early August; current daily ranges often >2.0. Today’s high/low span intraday exceeds 2.5, consistent with trend day characteristics.
Bollinger Bands (Daily): With 20SMA ≈ 21.87 and elevated recent volatility, upper band estimated near 27.8. Price at 26.96 is near but not beyond the upper band—room for a controlled grind higher or a brief mean-revert to rising mid/upper band.
Bollinger Bands (Hourly): Expansion on breakout, then band walk easing into minor consolidation—bullish if pullbacks continue to hold the upper/mid band zone.

Volume, VWAP, and participation

Volume (Daily): Heavy expansion from 08-07 onward; today’s composite shows very strong participation during the 14:00–16:00 breakout candles—classic confirmation of a valid breakout.
Hourly VWAP (session): Given the majority of volume printed in the 26–27.7 zone post-14:00, current price sits modestly above VWAP, indicating buyers maintain control.
OBV proxy: Rising with each breakout phase; no sign of distribution at the highs yet.

Classical levels and pivots

Floor pivots using 08-21 H/L/C (26.513/24.662/24.785):
- Pivot P ≈ 25.32
- R1 ≈ 25.98, R2 ≈ 27.17, R3 ≈ 27.83; today price cleanly exceeded R2 and approached R3 (27.83) with a high at 27.73—trend day behavior. Sustained trade above R2 usually precedes either an R3 tag or a flag into the next session; both are bullish contexts.

Fibonacci mapping (current impulse)

Measured from the June low (11.65) to today’s high (27.73):
- 23.6% ≈ 24.73 (acted as support on 08-21 close and today’s pre-breakout basin)
- 38.2% ≈ 22.96, 50% ≈ 19.69, 61.8% ≈ 16.43
Extensions off the recent base (08-16 low 22.65 to 08-20 high 26.37):
- 1.272 ≈ 28.8, 1.618 ≈ 30.6. With today’s breakout nearly reaching pivot R3 (27.83), 28.5–28.8 is a natural magnet if 26.6–27.0 holds.

Pattern work

Intraday ascending triangle: Flat-ish lid near ~27.0 with rising lows from 24.7→26.2→26.8 culminated in a clean breakout (14:00–16:00), validating the pattern.
Flag/Channel: Post-16:00, price established a tight flag between ~26.8 and ~27.3; continuation favored if lower bound holds.
Measured move (AB=CD): AB ~ 22.65→25.69 = 3.04; CD ~ 24.78→27.73 = 2.95; symmetry suggests initial upside objective essentially met near 27.8, often followed by a consolidation before the next leg.

Ichimoku (Daily, qualitative)

Price well above Kumo; Tenkan > Kijun with bullish TK cross established earlier in August; Chikou above price. Bullish across all components; Kijun likely sits ~22–23 and Tenkan ~24–25, framing dynamic supports.

Elliott wave framing (tactical)

Count from 08-16: Wave 1 (22.65→25.69), Wave 2 (→23.52), Wave 3 (→26.37), Wave 4 (→24.78), Wave 5 in progress (→27.73). Fifth may be near completion, implying a modest ABC pullback/sideways basing is probable before continuation to extension targets (28.8/30.6). A shallow Wave 5 extension remains possible given volume support.

Supply/demand and liquidity zones

Demand: 26.15–26.20 (breakout retest and hourly close base), 24.70–25.00 (multi-touch and fib 23.6%), 24.35 (intraday swing shelf).
Supply: 27.70–27.83 (today’s spike high to R3 band), 28.00 psychological, 28.5–28.8 (extension target/likely profit-taking pocket).

Probability-weighted 24h outlook

Base case (≈60%): Shallow dip or sideways into 26.4–26.9, then another test of 27.7–28.2. If broken, price gravitates to 28.5–28.8 where supply re-appears.
Bull continuation (≈25%): Minimal retrace; immediate breakout over 27.8 leading to a trend extension toward 28.8–29.2 within 24h.
Bear pullback (≈15%): Deeper fade to 26.15; a sustained break below 26.15 would defer upside, opening a mean-revert path toward 25.3–25.0 (pivot P and prior ceiling).

Risk considerations

Short-term overextension near hourly R3 and upper daily band suggests not to chase new highs; better expectancy comes from buying controlled pullbacks into 26.4–26.6 or a clean breakout retest above 27.8.
Invalidation for the bullish intraday thesis sits below 26.15. A daily close back under ~25.3 would weaken momentum materially.

Synthesis and trade plan

Trend is decisively up with volume confirmation and multi-tool alignment (MAs, MACD, Ichimoku, pivots). While a brief digestion is likely, probabilities favor another attempt at 27.7–28.2 and a potential extension toward 28.5–28.8 within the next 24 hours, provided 26.4–26.6 holds on pullbacks.
Strategy: Buy the dip rather than chase. Optimal entry cluster sits in 26.40–26.60 where VWAP/mid-flag support and the 15:00–18:00 intraday structures converge.
Target: 28.50 (front-run of the 28.8 extension and below R3 extension band), capturing the probable next liquidity pocket without demanding a full extension.

Conclusion

Bias: Bullish. Expect consolidation with upside resolution. Execute a pullback buy at 26.55 with a target at 28.50. Tactical invalidation for risk management would be a decisive break below 26.15 (not part of output schema but important to note).