Chainlink Price Analysis Powered by AI

LINK Under Heavy Supply: Bear-Flag Continuation Signals a Fresh Test of $9.00

Market snapshot (LINK)

Current price: $9.1566
Data used: Daily candles from 2025-11-07 → 2026-02-04 and intraday hourly sequence into 2026-02-04 21:58.

1) Multi-timeframe trend & structure

Daily trend (swing / primary)

From early Nov (~$15–16) to now $9.16, LINK is in a clear bearish primary trend (lower highs + lower lows).
Key swing sequence:
- Peak zone: $16.6–$16.7 (Nov 10–11)
- Breakdown leg: mid-Dec → late-Jan
- Recent acceleration: Jan 29–Feb 1 (11.83 → 9.41) including a high-volume flush.
The last ~7 daily closes: 9.97 → 9.41 → 9.81 → 9.45 → 9.16 (weak bounce rejected, then drift lower). This is typical of a bear-market “dead-cat bounce” failing.

Intraday (tactical / execution)

Hourly path shows a sell-the-rally profile:
- Early hours pushed up to ~$9.74 (intraday high), then persistent lower highs.
- Midday breakdown: prints down to ~$9.18–$9.08, then a brief bounce to $9.42, then back down to $9.15–$9.16.
This suggests supply overhead in the $9.30–$9.45 zone and weak demand into the close.

Conclusion (structure): Higher timeframe downtrend remains intact; intraday bounces are being sold.

2) Support/Resistance mapping (price action)

Immediate supports

$9.15 (current area): minor intraday pivot.
$9.05–$9.08: repeatedly tagged intraday (notably 16:00–18:00 hour lows around $9.08 and day low $9.0458).
$9.00–$9.04: psychological + session low shelf; if lost, downside can reopen quickly.

Overhead resistances

$9.30–$9.33: intraday breakdown/retake battle area.
$9.42–$9.45: bounce high area before rolling over.
$9.70–$9.74: session high / upper wick area; likely strong sell wall.

Implication: With price below the $9.30–$9.45 supply band, odds favor mean reversion attempts that fail below resistance, followed by another test of $9.05/$9.00.

3) Momentum & “trend health” (indicator-style reasoning from candles)

(Exact indicator values (RSI/MACD) can’t be computed precisely without running calculations, but their directional signals can be inferred from the sequence of closes and the steepness of the drop.)

RSI-style read

The collapse from ~13s to ~9s in ~2–3 weeks implies daily RSI likely entered oversold during the Jan 31–Feb 1 flush.
However, the subsequent rebound (Feb 2 close 9.81) failed to reclaim key resistances and price is rolling back over. In bear markets, RSI can remain depressed and produce weak/short-lived rebounds.

MACD-style read

The medium-term slope since early Jan turned decisively negative; the bounce attempt is too small relative to the preceding impulse. This is consistent with MACD still below zero with weak histogram recovery → bearish continuation bias.

Moving-average regime (conceptual)

Given price has fallen from ~14 to ~9, price is almost certainly below 20D/50D; 20D likely below 50D or trending toward it → bearish regime where rallies into the short MAs are sold.

4) Volatility & liquidity (range/ATR logic)

Daily ranges expanded materially during the late-Jan flush (example Jan 31 low ~9.33 from ~10.77 open; Feb 2 range 9.04–9.98).
Today’s daily candle (Feb 4): high 9.738 / low 9.046 → ~7.6% range, still elevated.

Implication for next 24h: Elevated volatility increases probability of another downside probe even if a bounce occurs first.

5) Pattern logic

Bear flag / descending consolidation

After the steep drop into Feb 1, price attempted to stabilize and bounce (Feb 2), but then faded (Feb 3–4).
That fits a bear flag (impulse down → weak upward/sideways consolidation → continuation).

Supply absorption check

The market has not demonstrated a clean higher high on intraday (recent attempts capped near 9.42–9.74). No sustained acceptance above 9.45.
This suggests sellers remain in control.

6) 24-hour outlook (probabilistic)

Base case (higher probability): bearish continuation / retest lows

Expect an attempt to bounce into $9.25–$9.35 (typical mean-reversion), followed by renewed selling.
Likely targets: $9.05, then $9.00–$8.95 if $9.05 fails.

Alternate case (lower probability): oversold bounce extends

If buyers reclaim and hold above $9.45, a squeeze could push toward $9.70–$9.75. Given the strong rejection earlier, this requires clear momentum and volume.

Net bias: Down over the next 24 hours, with choppy intraday swings.

7) Trade plan logic (entry optimization)

Because the trend is down and resistance is overhead, the higher expectancy play is to short into resistance rather than shorting the low.

Optimal open zone: $9.30–$9.35 (first meaningful resistance/previous battle area).
- If price never revisits it, a fallback is to open on a breakdown of $9.05 (momentum continuation), but that’s less “optimal” risk/reward from current info.
Take-profit logic:
- First objective is a retest of $9.05.
- Second objective is $8.95 (psych + likely liquidity pocket below the day’s low).

Given you requested a single open/close price: choose entry at resistance and TP below support.

Risk note

Crypto can gap on news/liquidity; if LINK reclaims $9.45–$9.50 and holds, the short thesis weakens near-term.