Tradzar
Chainlink Price Analysis Powered by AI
LINK at the Edge of Support: Post-Capitulation Bounce Fades, Breakdown Risk Builds
Market context (multi-timeframe)
Current price: $8.7893 (last hourly close ~$8.7893)
1) Higher-timeframe trend (Daily)
- Primary trend: Strong bear trend since mid-November.
- Approx swing: ~16.34 (Nov 11 open) → ~8.79 (now) = ~46% drawdown.
- Structure: Series of lower highs / lower lows into late Jan / early Feb.
- Capitulation & bounce: Feb 05 printed a sharp liquidation candle (low ~7.87, close ~7.91) with very high volume, followed by a mean-reversion bounce (Feb 06 close ~8.88) and then stalling (Feb 07–08 flat-to-down).
Implication: The bounce looks corrective within a broader downtrend unless price can reclaim key broken levels (not yet).
2) Near-term trend (Hourly)
Looking at the last ~24h:
- Price attempted to push toward ~9.02 (hourly highs around 9.0217 / 9.0165) but repeatedly failed.
- The session formed lower intraday highs after the 12:00–14:00 area and drifted to ~8.79 into the close.
- Notable hourly swing points:
- Resistance zone: 8.95–9.02 (multiple rejections)
- Support zone: 8.74–8.79 (tested; 16:00 low ~8.7436; last print ~8.789)
Implication: Hourly structure is weak/ranging with bearish tilt; sellers defend 8.95–9.02.
Key technical levels (price-action mapping)
Support
- $8.74–$8.79: Immediate support (intraday low ~8.7436; current sits just above).
- $8.60: Minor support (hourly low area from Feb 07–08 range; also psychological).
- $7.87–$7.91: Major support (Feb 05 capitulation low/close). A break below would reopen strong downside.
Resistance
- $8.95–$9.02: First heavy resistance (multiple hourly failures; today’s high ~9.0219).
- $9.30: Prior breakdown day close area (Feb 04 close ~9.25; Feb 05 collapse from ~9.25).
- $9.80–$10.00: Larger recovery ceiling (recent daily highs early Feb / psychological).
Indicator-based read (using available OHLCV)
3) Momentum (RSI-style reasoning)
- Daily sequence into Feb 05 suggests momentum reached oversold (capitulation). The rebound to ~8.88 relieved oversold conditions.
- The last two daily closes (Feb 07 ~8.91 → Feb 08 ~8.79) indicate momentum fading again.
Impact: After a violent oversold bounce, markets often retest supports; momentum currently favors another dip before any sustainable base.
4) Moving averages (trend proxy)
Even without exact MA calculations, the price action strongly implies:
- Price is far below the mid-November/December value area; therefore below likely 50D/100D.
- After the crash from ~11–12 to sub-8, short MAs (e.g., 20D) likely slope down or flat.
Impact: MA regime likely bearish; rallies into resistance are more likely to be sold.
5) Volatility (ATR/Bollinger logic)
- Feb 05–06 shows a volatility expansion (large daily ranges: 9.30→7.87; 7.32→8.98).
- After expansion, price compressed into 8.75–9.02 on the hourly chart → volatility contraction.
Impact: Contraction after expansion often precedes the next impulse move. With trend context bearish and resistance holding, odds slightly favor a downside resolution (support test).
6) Volume / liquidation signature
- Peak volumes around Jan 31 and Feb 01–06 indicate heavy distribution/forced selling.
- The rebound day (Feb 06) had very high volume too, typical of short-covering + dip-buying, but follow-through has been limited.
Impact: Without follow-through above 9.30/9.80, the bounce can remain a dead-cat/relief rally.
Pattern & strategy overlays
7) Support-retest / breakdown-retest (SR flip)
- The market previously traded comfortably above 9.25–9.80, then broke sharply.
- Current attempts to reclaim ~9.0–9.3 are failing.
Impact: Classic bear-market retest behavior → favors short setups near resistance or on support breakdown.
8) Range strategy (intraday)
- Range top: ~9.02
- Range base: ~8.74
- Current price is near the lower band; selling here is less optimal than selling near range top. However, if support breaks, downside can accelerate.
Impact: Best short is typically on a pullback into resistance (8.92–8.98) or on confirmed breakdown below 8.74.
9) Fibonacci (swing heuristic)
Using the impulse from Feb 05 low (~7.87) to Feb 07/08 local high (~9.02):
- 38.2% retrace zone roughly around ~8.58
- 50% around ~8.45
- 61.8% around ~8.31
Impact: If 8.74 breaks, these become plausible magnet levels for the next 24h.
24-hour forecast (probabilistic)
Base case (higher probability):
- Price remains capped under 8.95–9.02 and drifts/breaks below 8.74, targeting 8.60 → 8.45.
Alternative case:
- If buyers reclaim 9.02 and hold above it, next resistance is 9.30; would weaken the short thesis.
Given trend + repeated rejections + contraction near support, I assign:
- ~60% chance of downside continuation / support retest
- ~40% chance of range hold and rebound toward 8.95–9.02
Trade conclusion
Bias is bearish (trend-aligned) with a preference to short into resistance or on breakdown.
Decision: Sell (Short Position)
Optimal open (entry) price: Prefer a limit sell on bounce into the supply zone near $8.93 (between ~8.90 and 8.98), rather than shorting at support.
Take-profit (close) price: $8.46 (near the ~50% retrace area and a realistic 24h downside objective if 8.74 gives way).