LINK at the Range Floor: Fading Relief Rally Signals a Breakdown Attempt Toward 8.31–8.40

1) Market structure (Daily timeframe)

Data window: 2025-11-21 → 2026-02-18 (last daily close ~8.5776)

Primary trend

• LINK has been in a clear downtrend from the early-January peak region (~14.18 high on 2026-01-06) to the early-February capitulation (~7.91 close on 2026-02-05).
• The bounce from 7.91 → 9.19 (2026-02-14 high) looks like a bear-market relief rally inside a larger downtrend.
• Most recent daily candles: 2/14 close 9.09 → 2/15 close 8.78 → 2/16 close 8.93 → 2/17 close 8.83 → 2/18 close 8.58. This sequence is lower highs / fading momentum after the relief peak.

Key swing levels (support/resistance mapping)

• Immediate support: 8.55–8.54 (intraday lows on 2/18 hourlies ~8.545; also current day low 8.545)
• Next support: 8.40–8.31 (daily closes 2/12 ~8.40, 2/11 ~8.31)
• Major support: 7.90–8.00 (2/05 close ~7.91; psychological 8.00)
• Immediate resistance: 8.88–8.92 (hourly rejection zone; also prior intraday pivots)
• Higher resistance: 9.00–9.10 (psychological + 2/14 close 9.09)
• Major resistance: 9.18–9.23 (2/14 high ~9.19; 2/15 high ~9.23)

Implication: Price is trading below the post-bounce distribution area (8.88–9.10) and is currently pressing the lower part of its short-term range.

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2) Momentum & rate-of-change (multi-method)

A) Price action / swing logic

• After setting a relief-rally peak (2/14), the market has produced successively weaker closes, and today’s daily candle (2/18) is a bearish continuation relative to 2/16–2/17.
• The inability to reclaim and hold 8.88–9.00 suggests supply remains active.

B) “Impulse vs correction” read

• 2/05→2/14: impulsive bounce.
• 2/14→2/18: corrective drift lower (with lower highs).
• In a broader downtrend, corrections often resolve downward unless key resistances are reclaimed.

C) RSI-style inference (qualitative)

• The large selloff into 2/05 likely pushed daily RSI toward oversold. The rebound to 9.19 likely reset RSI upward, but the subsequent multi-day fade indicates momentum is rolling over rather than building a new uptrend.

Implication: Momentum favors another leg down toward the lower supports unless bulls can reclaim 8.88–9.00 quickly.

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3) Volatility & range analysis

A) Daily true range context (observational)

• Early February displayed very large daily ranges (e.g., 2/05 had a deep low ~7.87; 2/06 reversed strongly). That’s typical capitulation volatility.
• Recent days show compressed but still meaningful ranges; today’s daily range (high ~8.97, low ~8.55) is ~4.9%—enough to hit stops/targets intraday.

B) Hourly microstructure (last ~24h)

• Hourlies show multiple attempts to lift toward 8.82–8.90, followed by selling pressure.
• Notable push down into 8.55–8.63 area late session, then weak bounce to ~8.58.

Implication: Volatility is sufficient for a short-term short trade; the tape suggests sell-the-rips behavior.

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4) Volume / participation (from daily series)

• The largest volumes occurred on sharp selloffs and reversal days (late Jan → early Feb), consistent with distribution + forced liquidation.
• Recent volumes (mid-Feb) remain elevated vs quiet periods, but price is not advancing—this often aligns with supply absorption overhead.

Implication: Volume pattern does not confirm a sustained bullish reversal; it supports the idea of overhead supply near 8.9–9.2.

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5) Pattern & level-based setups

A) Range + breakdown risk

• Short-term range roughly: 8.55 support / 8.90 resistance.
• Current price ~8.58 is sitting near the range floor. Repeated tests of support increase probability of a support break.

B) Fibonacci-style retracement (anchored to bounce)

• Bounce leg: ~7.90 low → ~9.19 high.
• 50% retrace area sits roughly around 8.55 (very close to current). A clean break below this midpoint often leads to a deeper retrace (toward 61.8% / prior base ~8.31–8.40).

C) Mean reversion vs trend following

• Because price is already near support, immediate shorting at market is less optimal (crowded near support).
• Better expectancy comes from shorting a pullback into resistance (8.70–8.85) with defined invalidation.

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6) 24-hour forecast (probabilistic)

Base case (higher probability)

• Bearish drift / breakdown attempt: price likely retests 8.55 quickly.
• If 8.55 fails on an hourly close basis, next magnet is 8.40–8.31.

Alternative case

• If buyers defend 8.55 and short-covering triggers, a rebound toward 8.80–8.90 is plausible; however, unless it reclaims and holds >9.00, it still looks like a corrective bounce.

Net expectation (next 24h): slightly to moderately down, with a likely range 8.30–8.90, skewed toward 8.30–8.55.

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7) Trade plan (decision + execution logic)

Decision: Sell (Short Position)

Rationale:

• Dominant daily trend is down.
• Relief rally has stalled; recent sequence shows fading strength.
• Overhead supply at 8.88–9.10 remains intact.
• Support 8.55 is being repeatedly tested (breakdown risk).

Optimal open (entry)

• Prefer limit sell on a bounce rather than selling into support.
• Open (sell) price: 8.82 (near intraday pivot/resistance; below 8.88–8.92 rejection band to improve fill probability).

Take-profit (close)

• First meaningful downside target aligns with next support shelf.
• Close (take profit) price: 8.34 (in the 8.31–8.40 demand zone; front-run deeper bids).

(Risk note: if price reclaims and holds above ~8.92–9.00, bearish thesis weakens; consider invalidation/stop beyond that in real trading.)