LRC Breakout Retest: Positioning for a Secondary Push Toward 0.113–0.115 in the Next 24 Hours

Executive summary

• Context: LRC exploded intraday from ~0.091 to 0.1178, then retraced to ~0.103–0.104 into the close. Daily trend flipped up after a multi-week base; hourly shows a classic breakout → pullback (50–61.8% retracement) with declining post-spike volume, suggestive of bullish continuation within 24h if supports hold.
• Bias 24h: Moderately bullish. Expect a shallow dip/retest 0.102–0.104, VWAP/MA recapture, then push into 0.111–0.115. Risk of sweep toward 0.100–0.101 if liquidity hunts occur.

Step-by-step technical analysis

1. Price action and market structure

• Higher time frame (Daily): • June–July formed a broad base 0.07–0.09, first breakout to ~0.111 on Jul 21, then pullback to ~0.082–0.085 in early Aug, followed by steady higher lows through late Aug. • Today’s candle (Aug 31 intraday) broke the Jul 21 swing high (~0.1113) to a new local high (0.1178), confirming a bullish structure shift (HH/HL sequence). Close back near 0.104 reflects healthy profit-taking after a 25% intraday range.
• Intermediate (4h/1h proxy from hourly data): • Impulsive leg: 08:00–16:00 UTC rally from ~0.0915 to 0.1178 on surging volume (trend day behavior through a low-volume node around 0.100). • Pullback: 16:00–19:00 retrace to ~0.1033–0.1038, then small bounce to 0.104–0.105. This is a textbook breakout-retest of the 0.103–0.105 zone (former resistance turned support) and the 50%–61.8% Fib of the day’s impulse. • Structure: Bull flag/pennant developing; lower highs 0.113→0.111→0.106 with flattening lows ~0.103–0.104 suggests coil. A break above 0.106–0.108 likely accelerates to 0.111–0.115.

2. Fibonacci mapping (intraday impulse 0.0915 → 0.1178)

• Range R = 0.0263.
• Key retracements from high: • 38.2%: ~0.1077. • 50%: ~0.10465. • 61.8%: ~0.1016.
• Current price ~0.1041 sits just under the 50% line, a common buy-the-dip zone in strong trends. Below, the 61.8% at ~0.1016 aligns with psychological 0.100 and visible hourly demand—high-probability defense area if a deeper wick occurs.
• Extensions (if trend resumes; anchor pullback low ~0.1033): • 1.0x retest high: ~0.1178. • 1.272–1.618: ~0.121–0.126—stretch targets beyond 24h, but a partial path to 0.113–0.115 is feasible in the next session.

3. Support/resistance and liquidity pools

• Supports: 0.103–0.105 (breakout retest and 50% Fib), 0.1016 (61.8%), 0.100 (psych round), 0.0988–0.0995 (prior shelf/VPN), 0.0959 (Jul 19/20 close pivot).
• Resistances: 0.108–0.109 (intraday supply/VWAP zone), 0.110–0.1115 (prior daily high band), 0.114–0.118 (today’s supply; stops likely sit above 0.118).
• Liquidity: Thin books on weekend amplified the move; there are likely resting stops just under 0.101 and above 0.114/0.118. Expect a possible quick liquidity sweep before trend continuation.

4. Moving averages (estimates from provided series)

• Daily SMAs: • 20D SMA ≈ 0.089–0.091 (average of last ~20 closes mostly 0.083–0.094 with recent prints in 0.09–0.10). Price at 0.104 > 20D by ~14–17%: bullish, but not extended to exhaustion. • 50D SMA ≈ 0.084–0.086. Price > 50D: confirms medium-term uptrend resumption.
• Hourly EMAs (intraday): • 9/21 EMA pulled up aggressively during the spike; after retrace, price is hovering near/just under the fast EMA with flattening slope—typical for a coiling bull flag. A reclaim and hold above 0.106 should re-steepen EMAs bullishly.

5. RSI and momentum

• Hourly RSI: likely peaked >70 near 0.1178, then cooled to 45–55 during the pullback—classic reset within an uptrend. This opens room for another push without immediate overbought risk.
• Daily RSI: improving into mid-50s/low-60s after basing—bullish but not overheated; aligns with a trend transition phase.
• Momentum takeaway: Bullish impulse cooled without structural damage; momentum can re-ignite on a VWAP/EMA reclaim.

6. MACD (directional inference)

• Hourly MACD: wide positive spread at peak with fading histogram as price mean-reverted; histogram approaching zero with potential bullish curl as price stabilizes at 0.103–0.104. A bullish cross back above signal on a move through 0.106–0.108 would confirm continuation.
• Daily MACD: likely crossing up through the signal and aiming toward the zero-line; aligns with a multi-session upside window beyond just 24h.

7. Bollinger Bands and volatility

• Daily: Prior squeeze in Aug, now expanding upward. Price is reverting from outer band after a band ride—typical post-breakout digestion.
• Hourly: Bands expanded strongly; price retraced to the mid-band ~0.104–0.105. Holding the middle band and turning up is a high-probability continuation pattern. Lower band near ~0.100–0.101 marks downside leash for shakeouts.
• ATR: Daily ATR recently ~0.005–0.006; today’s realized range ~0.028 shows a 4–5x ATR expansion. After such expansion, the next day often consolidates within ~40–70% of the prior range; thus 0.101–0.113 is a realistic 24h working envelope.

8. Volume, OBV, and VWAP

• Volume: Enormous surge into the breakout with declining volume on pullback—bullishly constructive (profit-taking without aggressive distribution).
• OBV (qualitative): Uptrend since mid-Aug; today’s OBV jump stands out—accumulation signal.
• VWAP (session): Estimated ~0.107–0.108 given heavy mid-day prints. Price is currently below VWAP; a recapture is a clear momentum trigger, often leading to a quick move to 0.111–0.113.

9. Ichimoku (1h focus)

• Price broke far above the cloud; the pullback likely tests Kijun/upper Kumo edge ~0.103–0.105. Tenkan > Kijun, Span A > Span B, and Lagging Span likely above price—bullish regime. If price holds above the cloud on this retest, continuation probability remains high.

10. Elliott Wave framing (intraday)

• Count: 5-wave up to 0.1178, followed by A–B–C correction into ~0.103. If C ended near 0.1033–0.1038, the next impulse (i)→(iii) can target the 0.111–0.115 zone within 24h.

11. Market profile/value and low-volume node (LVN) traversal

• A prominent LVN sits around 0.098–0.100 from prior daily action; today’s move sliced through it quickly. Above 0.100, the market found a new value developing around 0.104–0.108. Acceptance above 0.108 would likely migrate value into 0.110–0.112.

12. Pattern recognition

• Bull flag/pennant: Post-spike descending micro-channel with shrinking volume—classic continuation setup if 0.106–0.108 breaks.
• Breakout-retest: Clean retest of the breakout shelf (0.103–0.105) holding so far.

13. Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (55%): Shallow dip to 0.103–0.104, reclaim 0.106–0.108 (VWAP/EMA), extend to 0.111–0.113; possible wicks into 0.114–0.115 if momentum accelerates. Close of the session likely 0.109–0.113.
• Bull extension (25%): Strong reclaim early, squeeze through 0.114, test 0.117–0.118 highs; brief overbought conditions then fade back into 0.112–0.114 by session end.
• Bear risk (20%): Deeper liquidity sweep to 0.101–0.100 (61.8%/round number). If reclaimed quickly, still bullish; sustained acceptance below 0.100 would defer the long and risk a slide to 0.098–0.099 before stabilizing.

14. Risk management notes

• Optimal long entries are at 50–61.8% pullbacks post-breakout; that is 0.1046 and 0.1016. With price near 0.104, a staged entry or a limit at ~0.1034 captures value without chasing. Momentum alternative: buy the VWAP/0.108 break.
• Logical protective line (not an order here): below 0.100–0.1008 to avoid being trapped in a deeper retrace.
• Reward targets: First target 0.111–0.113 (prior high band); secondary 0.114–0.115 (supply pocket). Risk/reward ~3:1 if entering ~0.103–0.104 and targeting ~0.113 with a notional stop ~0.100.

15. Confluence summary

• Structure: Breakout to new local highs; pullback into former resistance-turned-support.
• Fibs: Price parked at 50% retrace; 61.8% sits just below as secondary defense.
• Momentum: RSI reset, MACD curling; room to run.
• Volatility: Post-expansion digestion; bands midline support.
• Volume/VWAP: Pullback on lighter volume; VWAP overhead is a tactical trigger.
• Conclusion: Favor a Buy-the-dip strategy into 0.103–0.104 with a 24h target near 0.113, partials toward 0.115 if momentum improves.

24h price path expectation

• Early session: 0.1028–0.1045 chop, possible liquidity sweep to 0.1016–0.102; quick reclaim expected.
• Mid session: VWAP/EMA reclaim at 0.106–0.108, acceleration to 0.110–0.112.
• Late session: Test 0.112–0.114; potential spike to 0.115 with rejection back to ~0.112.

Actionable plan

• Preferred entry: Limit Buy around 0.1034 (between mid-band and 50% Fib, above key shelf). Momentum alternative: add on 0.108 VWAP break if not filled.
• Profit objective (24h): Scale toward 0.1129; if momentum is strong, trail for 0.114–0.115 but bank initial target within 24h.
• Key invalidation to watch: Hourly acceptance below 0.100–0.101 for multiple candles.

Overall verdict

• Directional call: Buy-the-dip for continuation. Probability-weighted path favors a push into 0.111–0.115 after a shallow retest of 0.103–0.104.