LRC’s Breakout Breathes: Golden-Pocket Retest Sets the Stage for a Push Toward $0.107

Summary of state at 2025-09-01 20:59 UTC

• Asset: Loopring (LRC)
• Last price: $0.10131
• Context: Massive breakout candle on 2025-08-31 (H: 0.11780, C: 0.10624) with very large volume, followed by a single day of retracement/consolidation into the 0.10 area. Intraday posted a higher low after a morning flush and reclaimed 0.10.

Step-by-step, multi-technique technical analysis

1. Multi-timeframe trend and market structure

• Daily structure (June → Sep): LRC based in the $0.07–$0.09 range through June/July, attempted a run to $0.11 in late July, pulled back into mid/high $0.08s, then printed two major upside expansion candles (Aug 16 and especially Aug 31), with the latter breaking prior July swing highs on an intraday basis (new high $0.1178). Close stayed above $0.10, signaling a regime shift from the $0.08–$0.09 base to a $0.10+ distribution zone.
• Key swing points:
  • July swing high: ~$0.111–$0.112 (overhead supply).
  • Aug 31: New high $0.1178 (breakout probe) with a strong close $0.1062.
  • Today (Sep 1 intraday): Low $0.09697; price reclaimed $0.10 and put in a higher low vs the morning trough.
• Intraday (hourly since Aug 31 21:00): After the breakout close, LRC sold down from ~0.106 to 0.09697 by 06:00, then formed a rounded base. Notably, the 18:00 hour printed a local high $0.10308, above earlier intraday highs (0.10207), thereby establishing a minor higher-high. Presently holding ~0.101–0.102 suggests a developing short-term uptrend (higher low → higher high) within a larger post-breakout consolidation—bullish bias while >0.099–0.100.

2. Moving averages (trend confirmation)

• 20D SMA (approx): ~0.0904 (computed from the last 20 daily closes). Price at $0.1013 is well above the 20D SMA, implying bullish momentum and positive mean reversion skew.
• 50D SMA (qualitative): Given the prolonged base in the low/mid $0.08s, the 50D is likely ~0.084–0.088. Price > 50D is another confirmation of trend improvement.
• Signal: With spot > 20D and > 50D, the MA stack is bullish; pullbacks into 0.096–0.100 are likely to find dip buyers.

3. Momentum: RSI, Stoch, MACD (direction and overbought/oversold)

• 14D RSI (approx): Using closes Aug 18–Aug 31, RSI computed near ~62.5 at Sunday’s close; today’s pullback likely eased it into the high-50s to ~60. That is healthy, not overbought, consistent with a bull flag/constructive consolidation.
• Stochastic (qualitative): After a sharp expansion day, a 1–2 day reset is normal; intraday recovery suggests oscillators turning up from mid-range—a supportive backdrop for a bounce.
• MACD (qualitative): The breakout and lift above MAs implies positive MACD with widening histogram on Sunday; today’s consolidation likely compresses the histogram but keeps the line > signal. Momentum is cooling but still net positive.

4. Volatility and risk: ATR and ranges

• Daily ATR expanded sharply on Aug 31 (range ~0.0296), dwarfing the typical 0.004–0.008 ranges prior. Expect volatility to remain elevated for several sessions as price digests the breakout.
• 24h expected range: A reasonable base case is ~0.098–0.107 with tail risks to ~0.095 and ~0.110 depending on whether the market breaks the evolving flag.

5. Volume analytics: confirmation/absorption

• Volume spikes:
  • Aug 16: ~104M (upside expansion from 0.0845 → 0.0958 close).
  • Aug 31: ~309M (major breakout). This is a textbook “confirmation volume” that typically precedes either trend continuation or a multi-day bull flag.
• Post-spike behavior: Price retraced to ~0.097 (above prior resistance 0.093–0.095), then re-accepted >0.10. That is constructive: demand absorbed supply above the old ceiling.
• OBV (qualitative): Should be at or near local highs given the sequence of up-closes on high volume; current pause likely flattens OBV rather than reversing it.

6. Support/resistance mapping (price action)

• Supports:
  • 0.0995–0.1005: “golden pocket” retest zone and round-number anchor; buyers defended here intraday.
  • 0.0950–0.0970: Prior breakout shelf and today’s intraday low zone; strong invalidation area for short-term longs.
  • 0.092–0.094: Old resistance band, now secondary support on deeper retrace.
• Resistances:
  • 0.1030–0.1036: Today’s intraday high cluster/pivot (hourly).
  • 0.1056–0.1070: Overhead intraday supply and the prior day’s congestion zone.
  • 0.110–0.112: July swing high supply.
  • 0.1178: New breakout high.

7. Fibonacci analysis: retracement and extension

• From Aug 31 swing (L 0.08817 → H 0.11780):
  • 50%: ~0.10299. Price has oscillated around this level today.
  • 61.8%: ~0.09948 (“golden pocket”). Today’s low 0.09697 dipped below 61.8% but stayed above the 78.6% (~0.09453) and then reclaimed the 0.10 handle—bullish rejection of deeper retrace.
• Intraday swing (Sep 1 L 0.09697 → H 0.10308):
  • 1.618 extension from 0.10308 ≈ 0.10686, aligning with a logical near-term take-profit zone (also coincident with resistance band 0.1056–0.1070).
• Upside extensions from Sunday’s breakout:
  • 1.272 of the Aug 31 swing ≈ 0.1259; 1.618 ≈ 0.1364. Those are medium-term levels, not necessarily 24h targets, but they frame the upside potential if momentum re-ignites.

8. Bollinger Bands (mean reversion context)

• With 20D basis ~0.0904, Aug 31 close (~0.1062) likely punctured the upper band. Today’s drift into 0.098–0.102 is classic mean reversion back toward the band edge. Price now sits near the upper band zone rather than far outside—this reduces overbought pressure and improves odds of a controlled continuation attempt.

9. Ichimoku (trend state, qualitative)

• Price > conversion and > base lines (given spot > 20D SMA proxy), and likely > cloud after Sunday’s impulse. Lagging span likely above price from 26 periods ago. Net: bullish regime with room to consolidate above the cloud; pullbacks into 0.096–0.100 remain constructive.

10. VWAP/anchored VWAP (qualitative)

• Anchored to Aug 31 breakout session, intraday action below the initial VWAP in Asia/EU hours found dip buyers and reclaimed 0.10 by US hours. That suggests value migrating higher post-breakout; remaining above 0.10 keeps the anchored VWAP context supportive for longs.

11. Elliott wave (scenario framing)

• Possible count: Wave 1 (Aug 16 expansion), Wave 2 (pullback to ~0.086–0.088), Wave 3 (Aug 31 impulse to 0.1178), now in a Wave 4 sideways/down consolidation that has so far shallowly retraced into the 50–61.8% of the last impulse. If this count holds, a Wave 5 attempt could probe 0.12–0.126 next; near-term (24h) a push into 0.106–0.108 fits a smaller-degree 5th or C-wave within the flag.

12. Mean reversion vs trend-following synthesis

• Trend-following evidence: Price > 20D/50D, higher high on Sunday with confirmation volume, intraday higher low formation today.
• Mean reversion evidence: Bands normalized after a significant excursion; price consolidated around 50% retrace.
• Composite take: The most probable next 24h path is a grind higher from 0.100–0.101 toward 0.103–0.107, with whipsaws of ~1–2% intraday.

13. Probabilistic next-24h scenarios

• Base case (55%): 0.099–0.107 range, with a test of 0.1036 then extension toward 0.106–0.107. Close near 0.104–0.106.
• Bull case (25%): Clean reclaim of 0.106–0.107, continuation to 0.109–0.112 (prior July supply). Requires follow-through volume returning in US/Asia sessions.
• Bear case (20%): Loss of 0.100 → re-test 0.097. Only if 0.099 fails decisively with momentum; deeper slide could reach 0.095 but odds are lower while Sunday’s breakout structure is intact.

14. Risk management and invalidation (operational notes)

• Invalidation for the bullish intraday thesis: sustained acceptance below 0.099 with heavy sell volume or a clean break of 0.0969 (today’s low). That would raise risk of revisiting 0.095/0.093.
• Preferred execution: Buy-the-dip style limit near 0.1006–0.1000, take profit into 0.1068–0.1070. If unfilled, momentum breakout add-on above 0.1036 can target the same 0.1068 area, but R:R is inferior vs dip buys.

Conclusion

• The higher-timeframe shift above key MAs plus a high-volume breakout and constructive retrace into the golden pocket favor a bullish bias. Intraday market structure shows a nascent sequence of higher lows/highs off the morning flush. Expect a grind higher to 0.106–0.107 over the next 24 hours unless 0.099 fails.

Trade Plan (24h horizon)

• Decision: Buy (Long).
• Optimal entry (limit): $0.1006 (dip to round-number support just above the 61.8% retrace band; high fill probability with favorable R:R).
• Profit-taking target: $0.1069 (aligns with 1.618 intraday extension and the 0.1056–0.1070 resistance band). If momentum overachieves, partial runners could aim 0.109–0.112, but for a 24h plan, 0.1069 is the statistically cleaner target.
• Invalidation guide (not a hard stop in the schema; for risk control): a break/close below 0.0963 undermines the long setup and suggests standing aside.

Projected next-24h price path

• Expected path: 0.100–0.101 base → 0.1036 test → 0.1056–0.1070 probe → consolidation around 0.104–0.106 by this time tomorrow, provided 0.099 holds.