LRC coiled beneath resistance: Buy the 0.106 dip for a breakout run toward 0.115

Comprehensive multi-timeframe technical analysis for LRC/USD over the next 24 hours

1. Market structure and trend context (Daily)

• Regime shift: Price has broken out of a multi-week 0.07–0.09 base. The Aug 31 surge (high 0.1178, close 0.10624) on extraordinary volume (309M) marked a structural change from range-bound to trending. Follow-through on Sep 1–2 kept price above 0.10, confirming acceptance above the prior range.
• Higher highs/higher lows: Since Aug 25 swing low (0.08322) we have successive higher lows (0.08773, 0.09076, 0.09670, 0.09872 intraday today) and higher highs (0.09753, 0.10474, 0.11202 intraday, 0.11780 daily). Trend is up.

2. Moving averages (Daily)

• 20-day SMA ≈ 0.09136 (computed from the last 20 closes). Price 0.10786 is +18.1% above the 20SMA, indicating strong short-term momentum but some overextension.
• 50-day SMA (approx) ≈ 0.085–0.088 based on July–Aug closes. Price is well above 50SMA; medium-term trend is bullish.
• EMA stack (qualitative): 9EMA > 21EMA > 50EMA on daily after the Aug 31 breakout is typical of a trending regime. Interpretation: Trend-following MAs support upside continuation; deviation from 20SMA suggests a consolidation/pullback risk inside an overall uptrend.

3. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) Daily ≈ 66.9 (calculated from the last 14 daily changes). This is bullish momentum just below overbought; room to press higher before classical 70–75 exhaustion.
• MACD Daily: With the rapid rise from Aug 31, the 12/26 MACD line is above its signal; histogram is positive but has begun to flatten over the last two sessions, consistent with consolidation before the next push.
• Stochastic (Daily, qualitative): Resetting from overbought toward mid-range, supportive of a fresh leg up if price holds supports. Interpretation: Momentum is positive and not yet extreme; consolidation digestion likely before another attempt higher.

4. Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid ≈ 0.091; upper ≈ 0.107–0.109; lower ≈ 0.074–0.076. Price is oscillating near the upper band after a band expansion on Aug 31. Riding the upper band in an uptrend favors continuation; brief mean-reversion dips are common.
• ATR(14) Daily (approx): ~0.008–0.010. Expected 24h range from 0.108 is roughly 0.099–0.117, aligning with recent highs/lows. Interpretation: Expanded volatility after the breakout; room exists for a retest of 0.112–0.115 without breaking trend.

5. Price geometry: Fibonacci, pivots, and structure

• Fibonacci retracement (swing high 0.11780 on Aug 31 to swing low 0.09670 on Sep 1): • 38.2% = 0.10476; 50% = 0.10725; 61.8% = 0.10974. Current 0.10786 sits just above the 50% and below 61.8%. Typical behavior is a grind through 61.8% (≈0.1097) toward 78.6% (≈0.1137), then a test of the high (0.1178) if momentum persists.
• Classic floor pivots (from Sep 1: H 0.10628, L 0.09670, C 0.10161): • Pivot P ≈ 0.10153; R1 ≈ 0.10636; R2 ≈ 0.11110; R3 ≈ 0.11593; S1 ≈ 0.09678; S2 ≈ 0.09195. • Price traded above R1 much of the session, repeatedly testing the R2 area (0.1111) and failing—indicative of an ascending triangle beneath R2.
• Support/resistance map: • Support: 0.1064 (R1 turned support), 0.1059 (intraday swing low), 0.1038–0.1048 (Fib 38.2% cluster), 0.1015 (pivot), 0.0988 (intraday low), 0.0967 (swing low). • Resistance: 0.1097–0.1111 (Fib 61.8%/R2 confluence), 0.1120–0.1137 (intraday high/78.6%), 0.1159 (R3), 0.1178 (major high). Interpretation: Strong confluence support near 0.1059–0.1064; resistance stack at 0.110–0.113. A break and hold above 0.111 opens 0.114–0.116 quickly.

6. Intraday (Hourly) read

• Session path 00:00–20:00 UTC shows a morning drive to 0.1120, pullback to 0.1040–0.1060, then a series of higher lows (0.1059 → 0.1068) under static resistance ~0.111. This prints a textbook ascending triangle.
• Hourly RSI cooled from overbought to mid-50s; momentum reset without breaking structure. Price at 0.1079 is marginally below intraday VWAP (~0.1085–0.109, est.). If price reclaims VWAP and breaks 0.111, momentum likely accelerates.
• Volume: Elevated on upswings vs downswings (notably 05:00–07:00 and 10:00–12:00 candles). Declining volume on pullbacks supports bullish continuation. Interpretation: Consolidation just below resistance with rising lows; odds favor an upside break during the next expansion window.

7. Ichimoku (Daily, approximations)

• Tenkan ≈ 0.100; Kijun ≈ 0.094–0.095; price > Tenkan > Kijun. Senkou A > Senkou B; forward cloud turning bullish. Chikou likely above price. Interpretation: Classic bullish Ichimoku alignment—pullbacks to Tenkan (~0.100) are buyable while structure holds above Kijun (~0.094).

8. ADX/Directional movement (Daily, qualitative)

• DI+ > DI- with ADX rising through the low-20s post-breakout. Interpretation: Trend is strengthening; not yet at exhaustion levels (>30–35 ADX), leaving room for trend continuation.

9. OBV/Accumulation

• OBV stepped up sharply on Aug 31 and remains elevated. Subsequent sessions show more volume on green than red candles. Interpretation: Accumulation bias persists; dips bought.

10. Pattern diagnostics

• Ascending triangle (intraday) with horizontal resistance 0.111–0.112 and rising base 0.106–0.107. Measured move target equals the height (~0.005–0.006) added to breakout line → 0.116–0.118, which coincides with R3/previous high.
• Bull flag on 4–6h view: Post-spike flag consolidating under resistance; a breakout projects toward prior high (0.1178) and modest extension.

11. Mean reversion checks

• Z-score vs 20SMA ≈ +2.1. Short-term pullback risk exists, but patterns suggest dips are likely shallow and bought above 0.105–0.106. Buying into support rather than at resistance is preferred.

12. Elliott wave (heuristic)

• Wave 1: 0.083 → 0.1047; Wave 2: retrace to 0.0967; Wave 3: push to ~0.112; Wave 4: sideways flag 0.104–0.111; Wave 5 potential: 0.115–0.118. Aligns with pivots/Fib extension and ascending triangle target.

13. Probabilistic path next 24h

• Base case (≈62%): Early dip to 0.1060–0.1065 (R1/flag base), reclaim VWAP, break 0.111–0.112, squeeze to 0.114–0.116, with intraday wicks possibly toward 0.116–0.117.
• Bearish alt (≈38%): Failure at 0.111; drift to 0.105–0.1048 (Fib 38.2% zone). Deeper risk tail to 0.101–0.102 (pivot/median) if broader market turns, but odds lower while structure holds.
• Expected 24h range: 0.104–0.115 (tails 0.101–0.117 per ATR/pivots).

14. Trade plan synthesis

• Bias: Bullish continuation after consolidation with a nearby, well-defined support zone. Momentum and breadth of confluences (R1 flip, Fib 50–61.8%, ascending triangle) favor a tactical long on dips rather than chasing into resistance.
• Entry: Optimal is a limit buy into 0.1060–0.1065, just above the 15:00 swing low and R1 pivot (0.10636). This seeks mean-reversion entry within trend.
• Target: First objective 0.1145–0.1150 (below R3/previous supply to front-run offers). A breakout could overshoot to 0.116–0.1178, but 0.1148 offers high hit probability in 24h.
• Invalidation (not requested but prudent): A decisive hourly close below 0.1047 (Fib 38.2%/intraday shelf) weakens the immediate bull case; below 0.1015 (pivot) invalidates the short-term setup.

Bottom line forecast (24h): Slight dip-to-rip path favored. Expect a pullback buy opportunity near 0.106, followed by a push toward 0.112–0.115, with a breakout attempt to the 0.116 handle if resistance gives way.