LRC coiled under resistance: Ascending triangle points to 0.112–0.114 breakout within 24 hours

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Moderately bullish continuation after a high-volume breakout and 2-day bull-flag consolidation. Expect a grind higher toward 0.111–0.114 if 0.1088 breaks and 0.105–0.106 holds as intraday support.
• Optimal approach: Buy a minor pullback into 0.1052–0.1056 (38.2% Fib cluster + hourly VWAP zone) or take a momentum entry above 0.1089.
• Validation/invalidations: Above 0.1089 opens 0.112–0.114; loss of 0.103–0.102 risks a deeper retest near 0.100–0.101.

1. Trend and moving averages

• Price vs MAs (daily): Current 0.1059 sits decisively above the 20-D SMA (~0.0923 est) and above the 50-D SMA (~0.086–0.089 est). Structure: short-term trend up; medium-term trend flipping up. 20-D > 50-D, a constructive alignment.
• Slope: 20-D SMA inflecting higher post-breakout; 50-D flattening/hooking up. This underpins the idea of a pullback finding buyers.
• Intraday MAs (1h): Price reclaimed and is holding above intraday baselines after the 0.102–0.103 morning low, printing higher lows into US hours. That creates a bullish staircase toward the 0.108–0.109 ceiling.

2. Market structure, support/resistance, volume nodes

• Key resistance: 0.1082–0.1088 (hourly double top region); 0.1122 (9/2 day high); 0.1178 (8/31 spike high, major).
• Key support: 0.1052–0.1059 (38.2% retrace from the impulse, now active support), 0.1030–0.1038 (hourly pullback base), 0.1015–0.1022 (50% Fib of the 8/29→8/31 impulse), then 0.100–0.1016 (9/1 close pivot).
• Volume profile: Massive participation built around 0.105–0.107 (Aug 31–Sep 2). This forms a prominent node likely to act as a demand shelf on dips. A second large node lives down near 0.090–0.093 from August, now secondary unless structure breaks.

3. Fibonacci confluence and measured moves

• Impulse leg measured: 8/29 close 0.08661 → 8/31 high 0.11780; range ~0.03119. • 38.2% retrace: ~0.10588 (current price trades right on it) — pivotal. • 50% retrace: ~0.10220 — the 9/1 low/settlement region. • 61.8% retrace: ~0.09849 — deeper support if momentum fails.
• Short-term swing (9/2 high 0.11216 → 9/3 low 0.10238): • 50% back = ~0.10727; • 61.8% = ~0.10830; Price tapped 0.10879 and faded — a classic first test of a Fib resistance cluster. A sustained break above 0.1083–0.1089 should release toward 0.112–0.114.
• Measured move from the emerging hourly ascending triangle: Base ~0.1038–0.105; lid ~0.1083–0.1089 → height ~0.0035–0.0051. Breakout objective ~0.1118–0.1140, aligning with 9/2 high and pre-spike supply — tight, believable 24h targets.

4. Momentum and oscillators

• RSI (daily, est): Mid-to-high 50s/low 60s after a 20% multi-day pop — positive but not overbought. This favors continuation after digestion rather than immediate mean reversion.
• RSI (1h): Momentum cooled on today’s pullback, then rebuilt into the US session; the higher low at ~0.1051 vs earlier ~0.1024 implies bullish structure. No clear bearish divergence into the 0.108 test; momentum is resetting for another attempt.
• MACD (daily): Likely crossed above signal post-8/31 surge with histogram positive; consolidation flattened bars, now curling up — bullish continuation signal.
• MACD (1h): Bearish from the morning drift has flipped toward the zero-line with a positive curl after the 0.102–0.103 base — supportive of another push at 0.108–0.109.
• Stochastics: On 1h, it cycled down and is turning higher within an uptrending structure, consistent with a buy-the-dip setup rather than chasing a toppy signal.

5. Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (daily, 20): Mid-band ~0.0923; upper band expanded post-spike and price is consolidating just under/around it. This is a classic bull-flag under the upper band after a band expansion — statistically favors an upper band walk on resolution.
• Bollinger Bands (1h): Middle band near ~0.105; price reclaimed and is riding above it, while upper band sits just shy of the breakout shelf (~0.108–0.109). A band expansion likely accompanies any break above 0.1089.
• ATR (daily, est): Volatility regime shifted higher since Aug 31; expect daily range ±0.006–0.009. A 24h path to 0.111–0.114 is within 1–1.5x ATR.

6. Ichimoku (contextual, directional)

• Daily: Price is now above a previously thick cloud from the summer base; Tenkan likely > Kijun with price above both lines — constructive. Chikou span should be above past price, reflecting a trend transition.
• 1h: Price above cloud following a Kumo breakout earlier today; pullbacks into Kijun/Tenkan (~0.105–0.106) find dip buyers, matching observed higher lows.

7. VWAP, anchored VWAP, and intraday baselines

• Intraday session VWAP (1h) clusters around ~0.105–0.106 after the morning dip; current price 0.1059 sits marginally above, a mild bullish skew.
• Anchored VWAP from the 8/31 volume event likely tracks ~0.104–0.105 given the heavy turnover; trading above this suggests buyers retain control of the breakout’s cost basis.

8. Volume analytics and OBV

• OBV (qualitative): Strong up-leg into 8/31, mild distribution 9/1, then a balanced-to-accumulative 9/2–9/3 on dips. The 18:00 hourly candle printed the day’s largest intraday volume on an up-bar to 0.1088 — evidence of demand at the ceiling. If sellers truly controlled, that push would have been slapped lower faster; instead we’re consolidating just beneath resistance.

9. Pattern diagnostics

• Hourly ascending triangle: Higher lows from 0.1024 → 0.1037 → 0.1051 with a relatively flat cap 0.1082–0.1088. This is a textbook continuation pattern within a new uptrend.
• Daily bull flag/pennant: Three-day digestion under local highs, tight range, supportive of a follow-through move.
• Candle behavior: 8/31 wide-range close near the highs; 9/1–9/2 printed small-bodied digestion candles with upper tails but not decisive rejections; today’s intraday action shows demand absorbing dips.

10. Liquidity and stop-hunt considerations

• Liquidity resting above 0.1088 (prior intraday high) and 0.1122 (recent daily high). A sweep of 0.1088 could accelerate into 0.111–0.114 quickly as stops and breakout orders trigger.
• On the downside, liquidity clusters near 0.1030–0.1022. A brief probe there would likely attract responsive buying unless macro flows deteriorate.

11. Elliott wave framing (heuristic)

• Wave 1: 0.0866 → 0.1178. Wave 2: retrace to ~0.1016 (near 50%). A developing Wave 3 should extend beyond 0.1178 in time; within 24h the realistic subwave target is 0.111–0.114, consistent with triangle measured move before tackling the major 0.1178 supply.

12. Probability mapping (next 24 hours)

• Bullish continuation scenario (breach and hold above 0.1089): 60–65% → target 0.1115–0.1140; extension 0.115–0.116 if momentum is strong.
• Range scenario (0.1035–0.1085 chop): 20–25% → mean around 0.106–0.107.
• Bearish breakdown (clean loss of 0.103 → 0.101–0.102 test): 10–15% → risk if broader market sours; deeper slip to ~0.0985 only if support fails decisively.

13. Trade plan rationale

• Entry logic: The best location risk/reward wise is near 0.1052–0.1056 (Fib 38.2% + hourly VWAP + rising intraday MA cluster). That buys into a level buyers have already defended. Alternate momentum trigger above 0.1089 for confirmation.
• Target logic: The triangle measured move and prior daily high cluster at 0.1115–0.114 provide realistic 24h take-profit.
• Invalidation: A decisive hourly close below ~0.103 (and especially 0.1022) would invalidate the immediate bull read and call for patience.

Conclusion

• The weight of evidence (MA alignment, Fib confluence, ascending triangle, positive momentum rebuild above VWAP, and strong participation at resistance) favors a Buy-the-dip strategy with an upside target into 0.112–0.114 over the next day. A breakout buy above 0.1089 is also valid but offers a slightly inferior R multiple.

Risk management note

• While not part of the requested fields, a prudent stop for the dip-buy plan would sit around 0.1019–0.1024 (just below 50% retrace and recent local shelf), aiming for at least 2:1 reward-to-risk toward 0.1125–0.1140.