LRC: Testing the $0.098 Pivot — Setup for a 24‑Hour Mean‑Reversion Pop Toward $0.103

Educational, not financial advice. Time horizon analyzed: next 24 hours.

Summary viewpoint

• Short-term momentum turned down on intraday frames after failing to hold the $0.10 round number, but price is sitting into a high-volume/pivot support zone ($0.0975–0.0985) that coincides with a multi-week breakout retest and the 62% give-back of the Aug 31 impulse. The balance of evidence favors a reflexive bounce toward $0.101–0.103 within 24 hours, provided $0.0973–0.0976 holds on a closing basis.

Multi-timeframe price structure

• Daily trend: Up from mid-August lows (higher highs and higher lows), but undergoing a pullback/mean-reversion after the Aug 31 expansion candle (H $0.1178, C $0.1062). Current print $0.09796 is a retrace of ~62% off that swing, testing a prior supply/demand pivot from mid-August ($0.095–0.098).
• Hourly trend (past 24h): Persistent lower highs from ~0.107 → ~0.098 with a mild deceleration into the close; today’s intraday low $0.09756 and close ~$0.09796 carved a micro base right at a known level (S2 pivot, see below), hinting at seller exhaustion.

Classical levels and pivots

• Key supports below: $0.0976 (today’s low / micro base), $0.0960–0.0966 (Aug micro shelf), $0.0958 (Aug 16 close), $0.0934 (Aug 22 close / daily swing shelf and near 20D lower band cluster).
• Resistances above: $0.1000–0.1010 (round # + broken intraday shelf), $0.1030–0.1035 (hourly supply; 09-04 04:00 cluster around $0.10317), $0.1069–0.1074 (recent closes), $0.1091 and $0.1122 (swing highs).
• Floor trader pivots (based on 09-03 H 0.109052, L 0.102353, C 0.107413): PP ≈ 0.10627; S1 ≈ 0.10349; S2 ≈ 0.09957; R1 ≈ 0.11019. Today traded below S2 (capitulation/oversold context) and stabilized just under it—often a mean-reversion setup back toward S2/S1 in the next session.

Moving averages

• 20D SMA ≈ $0.0931 (computed from last 20 closes). Price remains above the 20D mean following the late-August expansion—bullish medium-term context despite a short-term dip.
• 50D SMA (approximate) upward-sloping and likely in the $0.086–$0.090 band; price is still above, preserving the medium-term uptrend structure.
• Short MAs on the hourly (e.g., 9/21-EMA, approximated) are above current price and flattening—typical of a market that is extended short-term to the downside and primed for a retest.

Bollinger Bands (20,2) daily

• Mid-band ≈ $0.0931; upper ≈ $0.107 (est.), lower ≈ $0.079–0.081 (est.).
• Price sits between mid-band and upper band after rejecting the upper band in early September; curling back toward the mid-band is common, but a support catch above the mid-band is constructive. Current $0.098 is modestly above mid-band, suggesting pullback is normal rather than a trend failure.

RSI/Stochastics

• Daily RSI(14) estimate: neutral to mildly positive, ~48–52 after today’s pullback; not oversold; leaves room for a bounce but not stretched.
• Hourly RSI likely printed sub-30 earlier and rebounded into the close; potential bullish divergence (lower price lows vs slightly improving momentum) into $0.0976–0.098 base.
• Stochastics on hourly: likely crossing up from oversold zone—typical trigger for a 1–2 session recoil.

MACD

• Daily MACD remains above zero after the Aug 31 impulse but histogram is contracting (loss of upside momentum); a weak bearish cross risk exists if price fails to reclaim $0.101–0.103 quickly. Near-term, momentum downswing is aging; risk of a short-covering bounce is elevated.

ATR/Volatility and expected move

• ATR(14) daily inflated by the Aug 31 surge; conservative estimate ≈ $0.006–$0.007. One-day expected range from here: roughly $0.098 ± $0.006 → $0.092 to $0.104. That envelopes a retest of $0.103–0.104 on the upside or a push toward $0.093–0.095 on downside extension.

Volume/OBV

• Aug 31–Sep 2 saw outsized volume and net up-close flow (OBV up-step), followed by lower-volume pullback days—constructive distribution profile for continuation after mean reversion.
• Today’s intraday decline occurred on moderating volumes vs the spike days; lack of heavy distribution at the lows argues for a bounce attempt first.

VWAP/Intraday microstructure (hourly)

• Session VWAP likely above price (~$0.101–$0.102), acting as immediate dynamic resistance. A reclaim of VWAP often catalyzes a push toward prior hourly supply ($0.103–0.104).

Ichimoku (daily, approximated)

• Price remains above the cloud; Tenkan around ~$0.098–$0.100; Kijun near ~$0.092–$0.094. Current dip tags/retests Tenkan area—typical trend-continuation behavior if held.

Fibonacci mapping

• From Aug 31 high $0.1178 to Aug 25 swing low $0.0832, current $0.098 equates to roughly a 62% retrace from the high—classic reaction zone for attempts to re-assert the prior impulse.
• Smaller swing (Sep 2 high $0.1122 to today’s low $0.0976): 38.2/50/61.8 levels sit near $0.1030/$0.1049/$0.1067—aligning with noted resistances. First meaningful fib confluence is ~$0.1030–$0.1050.

Elliott wave framing (heuristic)

• Aug 31 spike likely Wave 3 of a larger degree; current is an ABC correction with C ≈ $0.0976–$0.098 testing key confluence. If correct, a relief Wave 4/5 style pop toward $0.103–$0.106 is probable before a larger decision near $0.107–$0.109.

Candles/patterns

• Today’s intraday action formed a small-bodied candle with a lower tail into $0.0976 at a round-number break ($0.10) and S2—often a “bear trap” candidate for a bounce to retest breakdown level.

Market profile / liquidity notes

• Liquidity pockets: resting liquidity likely at $0.100–$0.101 (prior acceptance) and $0.103 (inefficient zone from the overnight drop). Below, a thin pocket exists to $0.095–$0.096 where downside can accelerate if $0.0975 fails.

Scenario analysis (24h)

• Base case (55–60%): Hold $0.0973–$0.0976, bounce to $0.100–$0.101, probe $0.103 supply. Settlement likely $0.1005–$0.1025.
• Bear extension (25–30%): Lose $0.0973 on momentum; quick slide to $0.0955 and possibly $0.0938–$0.0945 if liquidity vacuums; rebound later toward $0.097.
• Bull surprise (10–15%): Swift reclaim of $0.101 → VWAP flip → extension into $0.104–$0.106 if short-covering triggers; capping likely at $0.106–$0.107.

Risk management considerations

• Longs are favored at/just below current with a tight invalidation under $0.0972 (close basis) or more conservative under $0.0952 (swing shelf), aiming for $0.103–$0.104 first target. R:R is acceptable (~1.4–2.0) if opened on a small fade into $0.0976–$0.0978 and trimmed into $0.103.

Decision logic synthesis

• Bullish factors: 20D > price mid-band support; pullback into fib 62% and prior pivot; hourly oversold with basing; undercut of S2; medium-term uptrend intact; diminishing sell volume.
• Bearish factors: Failed hold above $0.10; hourly MAs overhead; daily MACD rolling; risk of one more flush to $0.095–$0.096 if $0.0975 breaks.
• Net: Favor a tactical Buy for a 24h bounce toward $0.103, with tight risk controls.

Prediction next 24 hours

• Expected path: Build support $0.0973–$0.0980 → reclaim $0.100–$0.101 → test $0.103. Probabilistic close range: $0.100–$0.102.

Execution plan (tactical)

• Entry: Limit near $0.0976 (support and today’s low vicinity) to exploit a small further dip/liquidity sweep.
• Take profit: $0.1032 (first overhead supply/fib confluence). Consider partials at $0.1008–$0.1015 if momentum stalls.
• Invalidation (not requested but prudent): Close below $0.0952 undermines the bounce thesis.