LRC poised for a 24h mean‑reversion bounce off the 61.8% Fib cluster

Snapshot and context

• Asset: Loopring (LRC)
• Current price: 0.06135
• Timeframe coverage: Daily OHLC from 2025-08-08 to 2025-11-03; intraday hourly data for 2025-11-04/05
• Recent behavior: Sharp drawdown since mid-October, capitulation-style sell on 2025-10-10, then a grinding drift lower into 2025-11-03. Today (hourly) shows a controlled intraday bid from ~0.0589 to ~0.0614 and settling near 0.06135.

Price action overview (multi-timeframe)

• Daily structure: Lower highs and lower lows since the Oct bounce peak (late Oct high ~0.0747). The selloff accelerated on 2025-11-03 (close 0.06017). Price is now testing a multi-factor support pocket (see Fibonacci and pivots below).
• Hourly (today): Series of higher lows and slightly higher highs: 0.0582 → 0.0593 → 0.0604 → 0.0614, suggesting a short-term bullish drift/mean reversion within a broader downtrend. Intraday high printed 0.06142; intraday support repeatedly held around 0.0602–0.0606.

Trend and moving averages

• 20-day SMA (approx): ~0.06810 (computed from last 20 closes). Current price is ~9.9% below this—bearish on a swing basis, but extended from mean.
• 50-day SMA (qualitative): Above the 20SMA and well above spot (approx high-0.08s/low-0.09s), confirming a primary downtrend since early September.
• Short EMAs: 8EMA < 21EMA (approx 0.065 vs 0.068), bearish slope but spread narrowing due to today’s intraday strength. Narrowing spreads often precede short-lived mean-reversion pops.
• Takeaway: Trend is down on daily; short-term hourly momentum is up, favoring a tactical long fade-to-mean rather than trend continuation over the next 24h.

Momentum oscillators

• 14-day RSI (approx): ~30 (computed from last 14 daily deltas). That places LRC at/near classical oversold territory. Oscillators at 30 + intraday bid = statistically elevated odds of a bounce or at least sideways consolidation.
• Stochastic/RSI blend (qualitative): After the 11/03 drop, intraday oscillators typically reset from sub-20 to mid-line. The hourly sequence of higher lows supports a stochastic cross up.
• MACD (daily, qualitative): Below zero with a negative histogram that is beginning to contract thanks to today’s uptick. Contraction of negative bars often precedes an RSI-to-50 test on short timeframes.

Volatility and Bollinger Bands

• 20-day Bollinger Bands (approx): Mid ~0.0681; lower band estimated near ~0.0605 (given recent range expansion). Spot ~0.06135 sits just above the lower band after a tag/near-tag—classic mean-reversion setup targeting the mid-band over multiple sessions, or at least a bounce toward 0.062–0.064 in the next 24h.
• ATR(14) (qualitative): Elevated versus mid-October but lower than the capitulation day (10/10). Expect a 24h range of roughly 0.003–0.004, placing reasonable bounds from ~0.058–0.065.

Volume, OBV, and participation

• Volume: Spikes on sell events (10/10, 9/31-style bursts earlier) with decaying participation during recent drift. 11/03 drop came on moderately high volume, but today’s intraday recovery isn’t accompanied by blowout volume—typical for a cautious, orderly mean-reversion rather than a trend reversal.
• OBV (qualitative): Downtrend since mid-Oct; today shows flattening—consistent with early basing. No decisive accumulation signature yet, but supply pressure appears to be easing intraday.

VWAP and intraday positioning

• Intraday VWAP (today, qualitative): Price reclaimed and held above session VWAP during the New York/late day hours, with dips bought around ~0.0605–0.0608. That intraday reclaim is a constructive tell for a 24h bounce attempt.

Support and resistance (confluence)

• Immediate supports: 0.0605–0.0608 (intraday defended), 0.0596 (61.8% Fib of a key swing), 0.0589/0.0582 (hourly lows), then 0.0568 (S1 from pivots), and the panic-print area near 0.0503 (Oct 10 extreme) far below.
• Near resistances: 0.0614–0.0616 (today’s intraday supply), 0.0623–0.0625 (daily pivot P and 50% Fib), 0.0638–0.0643 (late-Oct congestion/close), 0.0657 (R1 pivot), and 0.0664–0.0670 (early-Nov clustering).

Fibonacci mapping (key swing)

• Swing low (10/10): 0.05026; swing high (10/28): 0.07470; range: 0.02444.
• 38.2%: 0.06537; 50%: 0.06248; 61.8%: 0.05961.
• Spot is between the 50% and 61.8% retracements—a classic support pocket where bounces often originate. The 50% at ~0.0625 aligns with tomorrow’s tactical first upside magnet.

Pivot points (derived from 11/03 H/L/C)

• P ≈ 0.06230; R1 ≈ 0.06568; S1 ≈ 0.05679; R2 ≈ 0.07119; S2 ≈ 0.05341.
• Price is just below P and has already tested 0.0614. A 24h test of the pivot (0.0623) and partial extension toward 0.0638 is plausible if intraday supports hold.

Ichimoku (qualitative approximation)

• Daily: Price below cloud with lagging span beneath price—macro bearish. However, on intraday timeframes, Tenkan > Kijun crosses often occur first; today’s steady bid suggests a potential hourly Tenkan/Kijun lift, consistent with a tactical bounce toward the flat Kijun region (often near 50% retrace).

Market structure and Wyckoff-style lens

• We saw a Selling Climax (SC) day on 10/10, followed by a rally and subsequent drift lower. 11/03 looks like a Secondary Test with less velocity compared to 10/10. Today’s response resembles an early “spring” attempt on hourly data—insufficient for a full Phase C/D markup call, but supportive of a 24h bounce within the range.

Statistical/mean-reversion frame

• Z-score vs 20SMA: With spot ~0.06135 vs SMA20 ~0.0681 and estimated daily sigma ~0.0038, z ≈ -1.8. Readings beyond -1.5 often see short-term mean-reversion attempts, especially when intraday momentum flips positive.

Harmonics / pattern read (qualitative)

• Descending channel/wedge characteristics from late Oct into Nov 3. Today’s lift off the lower boundary supports a move toward the midline before the next decision point.

Risk factors and invalidation

• Invalidation line (tactical): A sustained break back below 0.0596–0.0589 would negate the bounce thesis and open a path toward S1 (0.0568).
• Liquidity pockets: 0.0600 round number magnet; 0.0585–0.0589 contains stops from today’s bidders; 0.0623–0.0625 overhead supply from trapped late longs and pivot/50% Fib confluence.

24-hour outlook (probabilistic)

• Base case (55–60%): Mild bullish mean reversion with tests of 0.0623 (pivot) and extension toward 0.0635–0.0640; intraday pullbacks find support near 0.0606–0.0609.
• Alt case (30–35%): Range chop 0.0598–0.0623 if momentum fades and sellers lean at 0.0614–0.0623.
• Bear case (10–15%): Rejection at 0.0614/0.0623 followed by a break of 0.0596 leading to 0.0586–0.0568 sweep.

Trade plan (tactical, 24h swing)

• Bias: Buy the dip within the 0.0606–0.0610 demand, targeting the 0.0635–0.0640 pocket where multiple resistances cluster.
• Entry (limit): 0.0609 (between intraday supports and just below current, improving risk/reward and probability of fill on a routine retrace).
• Take-profit: 0.0638 (below the 0.0643 congestion and just beyond the 50% Fib/pivot cluster; captures the likely 24h expansion without requiring a regime change).
• Suggested stop (not required but prudent): 0.0586 (below 61.8% Fib and beneath today’s defended shelf). This yields approx R:R ~ 1.25–1.3 for the 24h window.

Synthesis and conclusion

• The larger trend is bearish, but multiple tools align for a short-horizon bounce: RSI ~30, price near the lower Bollinger band, 50–61.8% Fib support cluster, pivot P just overhead, intraday VWAP reclaim, and a sequence of hourly higher lows. Expect a mean-reversion push toward 0.0623–0.0640 over the next day, with 0.0606–0.0610 as a high-probability demand zone to initiate a tactical long.