Step-by-Step Technical Analysis: Litecoin (LTC) as of 2025-06-04

1. Price Trend and Price Action Overview

• Medium-Term Trend: Prices peaked at ~$106 (2025-05-10/11) then entered a broader downtrend, punctuated by occasional sharp rallies; current price is $88.10, approximately a 16% decline from recent swing highs.
• Recent Structure: Since late May, LTC collapsed from $98 to a low near $85.66 (2025-05-30) with only limited bounces. Short-term trend has been notably downward with volatility spikes.

2. Support and Resistance

• Major Resistance:
  • $90.50–$91 (recent failed rally attempts, overhead supply)
  • $94–$95 (prior support, broken and un-reclaimed)
  • $98–$100 (major swing high zone)
• Key Support:
  • $86 (recent action, psychological, and May/June pivot)
  • $83 (late April & March consolidation base)
  • $81–$82 (previous demand after breakdown in April)

Current price is just above immediate support, with overhead resistance encountered multiple times.

3. Volume Analysis

• Recent volume during the selloff into $85 region was above average, confirming conviction behind downward moves; rebounds occurred on average/lower volume (weak demand).
• Intraday, volume spikes coincide with failed rallies or accelerations downward, e.g., the failed push over $90–$91.

4. Moving Averages

• Approximate 50-day MA (estimated) is around $93–$95, and the 20-day MA is near $90–$91.
• Price is decisively below both, a technically bearish posture.
• Short intraday oscillations fail to break/hold above even the 20-period EMA.

5. Momentum Oscillators (RSI/Stochastics)

• 14-day RSI (estimate):
  • Dipped toward 30–35 on swing lows, currently rebounding weakly (~40–45), not oversold now.
  • Recent failed rallies do not push RSI into bullish territory (>50).
• MACD (directional momentum):
  • Crossed negative mid/late May, histogram remains red.
  • No sign of bullish divergence or reversal.

6. Volatility & ATR

• Average True Range (ATR) expanded on May/June plunge, now moderating but still elevated versus April. Indicates continued risk of volatility spikes, especially to the downside.

7. Candlestick Patterns & Price Structure

• Weekly and daily recent candles: Multiple long upper wicks at $90–$91, rejection tails pointing to persistent sell pressure at these levels.
• Recent candles: Bearish engulfing on 2025-06-04 hourly close, failed hammer attempts.

8. Market Structure (Order Block, Liquidity Sweep Analysis)

• Previous demand blocks around $94–$98 have been swept and are now resistance.
• Current action indicates distributive phase below $90–$91, suggesting sellers in firm control.
• Hourly and 4H chart show a series of lower highs/lower lows, no strong bullish absorption.

9. Fibonacci Retracements (Recent Downswing)

• From recent $106 high to $85.66 low, the common 0.382 retrace lands near $93 (not reached), 0.236 near $89.50 (recent rejection zone). Failure to reclaim these is bearish.

10. Elliott Wave Overview

• The sharp move down from May highs has characteristics of a strong Wave 3 or C, with minor corrective bounces (potential Wave 4/abc flats) that lack momentum.
• No bullish impulsive waves observed yet.

11. Sentiment and Intermarket (if applicable)

• General crypto sentiment appears risk-off post-May, with majors also struggling.
• No evidence in the volume or price of major accumulation or news catalyst.

12. Pattern Detection

• Emergent descending channel/flag on hourly/daily charts. Currently at/below midpoint, which typically resolves lower.
• Double top and multiple failed attempts to recover $90–$91 add further weight to bearish bias.

---

Synthesis and Combined Outlook

• Overwhelming evidence of continued seller dominance:
  • Price is below all key MAs, RSI/MACD pattern bearish, multiple failed rallies, high-volume down days, and failure to reclaim broken support.
  • The $90.50–$91 zone is now a critical resistance barrier; each bounce is sold into or immediately reversed.
  • The recent low at ~$85.66 is likely to be re-tested; should it fail, the next logical support is near $83 and then potentially $81.
  • Any attempt to fill the overhead supply up to $90 likely finds sellers aggressively.
• No strong bullish divergence; momentum, liquidity, and order flow all indicate weakness. Market is not oversold; selling can accelerate.

Probability for Next 24 Hours

• Bearish momentum likely to persist; expected price action is continued grind lower, with increased risk of a renewed breakdown if $88 gives way.
• Brief/failed bounces to $89–$90 remain sell opportunities.

---

Trade Plan Based on Analysis

• Position: Sell (Short Position)
• Open Price: $88.10–$88.20 (current price zone, after slight bounce)
• Stop-Loss (not shown but recommended): Above $90.60 (prior supply area)
• Target (Take-Profit): Primary objective $85.70 (recent low), possible extension to $83 if acceleration occurs.

Conclusion

All major technicals, price action, and order flow analysis point to further downside in the next 24 hours. The optimal trade is a Short/Sell near $88.10, holding for a move towards $85.70 (with possible extension towards $83 if downside momentum sharpens on high volume or macro pressure).