Detailed Technical Analysis of Litecoin (LTC) as of 2025-06-18

1. Long-term Price Action Analysis (March–June 2025)

• March–April: The period between March 21 and April 6 showcased relatively high volatility, with dramatic sell-offs (notably, 2025-04-06: plunge from $82.7 to $70.4, accompanied by a large spike in volume). Rapid recovery attempts followed, yet failed to establish new highs.
• Late April–May: After bottoming out in early April, a persistent uptrend ensued, pushing LTC towards the $90–$105 zone (peak on 2025-05-10 at $106.1). The sequence shows consecutive higher highs and higher lows, but every rally is followed by increasingly sharper corrections—indicative of weakening bullish momentum and likely distribution.
• Late May–current: A substantial correction occurred post-local-high, most noticeably on 2025-05-30 (close ~$85.7), which triggered a set of lower highs over subsequent days.

2. Short- and Mid-term Trend Analysis

• Recent Trend (June):
  • The latest data shows price compression in the $83–$89 range.
  • Current price: $85.35. Higher timeframe chart reveals a sequence of lower highs since May's local peak, but near-term, a slightly higher low has just formed (85.25 > previous 84.34).
  • Recent 10-day closes: Strong support seen repeatedly around $84.0–$85.0, with failed breakdowns and swift recoveries (
  • Short candles and decreased volume after each dip suggest growing accumulation at these levels.
• Volume Analysis:
  • Volumes have generally declined since the early May peak, but significant volume upticks occur on local bottoms, hinting at accumulation phases.
  • 2025-06-13: Volume spike with price bouncing off ~$81.54, a local capitulation and subsequent retracement.

3. Volatility & Momentum Indicators

• Average True Range (ATR): Recent ATR values would be declining, as daily candle ranges have contracted since mid-May, confirming a period of consolidation following the big drawdown.
• RSI (Relative Strength Index): While numbers aren't explicitly given, the persistent bouncing off oversold areas (April and June) imply RSI sub-40 during dips and back near 50 now—neutral, but poised for expansion.
• MACD: The pattern of falling highs and rising lows with a flat current price implies a looming breakout; MACD would likely be nearing a bullish cross if price cracks above $86 on volume.

4. Support and Resistance Mapping

• Support Zones
  • $84.00–$85.00: Multiple recent intraday bounces and daily closes in this range; footprints of accumulation.
  • $81.00–$82.00: Local low from June 13 capitulation, but not expected to be tested unless a new downward catalyst emerges.
• Resistance Zones
  • $87.00–$88.00: Recent local highs in June, multiple failed breakouts, and a zone where most failed rallies rolled over.
  • $89.50: Highs from early June. If broken, would mark a fresh near-term higher high (bullish confirmation).

5. Candlestick Patterns & Price Structure

• Recent sessions: Multiple daily pinbars and hammer-like patterns with long lower shadows above $85.0, indicating strong buyer defense.
• Hourly (last 24h): Narrow ranges, multiple closes above $85.0, with several candles failing to close below $84.5 despite attempts—bullish absorption.

6. Order Flow/Volume Profile

• Major volume surges on drops below $85, followed by price recoveries—implies demand absorption by larger players.
• No follow-through on breakdowns below $84; latest approach to $85.3 succeeded in closing up on increased volume (20:00/21:00 block).

7. Pattern Recognition / Charting Techniques

• Descending Channel (May–June): The broader correction since the $106 peak appears to have resolved into a narrowing flag/channel, now approaching its apex.
• Potential Double Bottom: Local lows at $84.34 (6/17) and $85.25 (6/18) point to a possible double-bottom base, with a modestly higher low—a bullish reversal trigger if confirmed above $86–$87.

8. Fibonacci Retracement Analysis (from 2025-05-10 $106.15 to 2025-06-17 $84.35)

• 23.6% level: ~$89.5
• 38.2% level: ~$92.1
• 50% level: ~$95.2 This positions $89.5 and $92–$93 as next upside targets should a breakout occur from current levels.

9. Elliott Wave/Fractal Context

• The latest drop and bounce configuration fits as either a 5th corrective wave ending or an ABC correction with the current move representing the C leg bottoming—reinforcing the double-bottom interpretation.

10. Summary & Trade Plan

• Bias: Multiple signals, from failure to break lower support, building volume on dips, waning volatility, and nascent bullish price structure, all point to a likely upward move within the next 24h.
• Entry (Buy): Ideal open would be as close as possible to recent support/accumulation—around 85.00–85.40 (matches current price and prior defense zone).
• Target (Take profit): Primary: $87.80 (recent resistance/local high in June); if momentum is strong, trail stops in anticipation of push towards $89.50 (Fibonacci/structural).
• Stop: Conservative risk management suggests stop just below 84.00 (invalidates setup if lost with volume).

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Conclusion: Buy at $85.35–$85.40 with an initial target of $87.80 (resistance and June highs). If strong breakout volume follows, extend target to $89.50. Downside invalidation at $83.90. Probability skew is moderately bullish for the next 24h, based on multi-tool confluence.