LTC poised to spring off 121 support: targeting a 124.4–126.0 rotation within 24 hours

Summary view

• Instrument: Litecoin (LTC)
• Snapshot: 2025-08-09 20:58 UTC, last trade ~122.07
• Context: Strong medium-term uptrend since mid-July breakout above 100; current phase is a shallow pullback/consolidation above 120 after a local peak near 128.79 on Aug 5. Intraday on Aug 9 shows a controlled drift lower into a well-defined support zone 121.2–122.3, with responsive bids.

Multi-timeframe price structure

• Weekly (implied from daily series): Clear transition from multi-month base 80–90 to expansion leg >120. Momentum regime shift favors buying dips while higher lows persist.
• Daily: Sequence of higher highs/higher lows from Jul 17: HHs ~121.30 (Jul 20), 128.79 (Aug 5); HLs ~108.59 (Jul 28), 110.47 (Aug 3), 119.30 (Aug 6). Current pullback holds above 38.2% of the July rally, suggesting trend health.
• Hourly (Aug 8–9): Intraday fade from 125.7–126.1 to 121.2, then basing 121.2–122.5 with lower volatility into the close. Structure resembles a bull flag/descending channel resolving into balance above a key pivot ~121.0–121.5.

Key levels (confluence)

• Supports: 121.20–121.60 (today’s intraday low cluster), 120.27 (Aug 5 close), 119.30 (Aug 6 close / 38.2% fib pocket), 116.6 (Fibo 38.2% of 87.0→128.79 leg measured conservatively).
• Resistances: 124.45 (R1 pivot, confluence with prior intraday supply), 125.70–126.20 (intraday highs Aug 9 and daily R2 pivot vicinity), 128.79 (swing high), 130.00 psychological.
• Volume nodes: High-volume acceptance 113–116 from late July congestion; newer node forming 120–122 from recent sessions. Low-volume gap 118–120 favors fast rotations if broken, but currently acts as a springboard above 120.

Classical indicators

• Moving averages (est.):
  • 20-day SMA ≈ 113–115 and rising; price > SMA → bullish regime.
  • 50-day SMA ≈ mid-to-high 90s and rising; 20>50>200 alignment implies trend strength.
  • 200-day SMA ≈ low-to-mid 80s; wide separation confirms strong medium-term trend.
• MACD (12,26,9, daily): Positive and above zero since late July; histogram has contracted post-Aug 5 peak, consistent with a momentum cool-off rather than a reversal. Signal cross risk low while price holds >120.
• RSI (14, daily): Pulled back from near-70 to ~60–62; in bullish range regime (40–80). Room to re-accelerate without immediate overbought risk.
• Stochastic (daily): Eased from overbought toward mid-band (~50–60) and appears to curl; supportive for a fresh push if price reclaims 124–125.
• ADX (14, daily): Estimated high-20s/low-30s → trend intact; +DI above -DI.

Volatility and bands

• ATR (14, daily): Expanded during breakout to ~5–7, now stabilizing ~4–5. Expect 24h envelope roughly ±2–3 from mean, with tails to ±4–5 possible on eventless weekend liquidity.
• Bollinger Bands (20, 2): Mid-band near 114–115; upper band ~124–126; price oscillating near upper-middle band. Pullback from upper band relieved pressure; another upper-band test likely on reclaim of 124.5–125.
• Keltner Channels: Price near/inside upper channel after mean-reversion; no squeeze signal—trend continuation favored on positive thrust.

Fibonacci and extensions

• Impulse measured low to high (approx): 87.0 (Jul 3) → 128.79 (Aug 5).
  • 38.2% ≈ 116.6 (tested/held via 119.3 close), 50% ≈ 107.9, 61.8% ≈ 99.2.
  • Current hold well above 38.2% suggests shallow corrective structure; typical continuation setup.
• Short-term retracement (Aug 5 high to Aug 6 low): Price reclaimed 50–61.8% retrace quickly (120–123), indicating dip demand; now consolidating just above this fib pocket.

Pivot points (classic, based on Aug 7 H/L/C: 122.7265/117.5775/122.7258)

• Pivot P ≈ 121.01; S1 ≈ 119.29; R1 ≈ 124.44; S2 ≈ 115.86; R2 ≈ 126.16.
• Today respected these: tagged near R2 (126.13) early, faded toward P (121.xx), now stabilizing between P and R1—textbook balanced day near pivot with upside magnet back to R1/R2 if buyers step in.

Volume/flow diagnostics

• Daily volume surged July 17–21 and Aug 4–5 (breakout/continuation days), then tapered—typical of consolidation after trend expansion.
• OBV (qualitative): Uptrend since mid-July; flat last 2–3 sessions, no distribution signal while price holds supports.
• Intraday prints show notable liquidity at 05:00 and 20:00 UTC—likely algos repositioning. No capitulation spike on the selloff to 121.2 (constructive).

Market profile/auction

• Value area migrating higher (110s → 120s).
• Today’s balance forms a D-shaped profile around 121.9–122.3 with tails toward 121.2 and 125–126; next 24h, expect rotation back toward upper tail if buyers defend 121.2–121.6 on Asia open.

Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price above cloud; cloud likely thickening and forward-span bullish. Tenkan above Kijun with small compression; pullback toward Tenkan/121–122 region is standard trend-resume behavior.

Trendlines/channels

• Rising channel from Jul 28: support ~121 today, resistance ~126–127. Price is testing lower channel boundary; typical buy-the-lower-rail setup with target midline/upper rail.

Elliott wave framing (schematic)

• Primary impulse off Jul lows: Wave 3 climax near 128.8 (Aug 5), wave 4 flat-to-zigzag into Aug 6–9 (119–122), subwave 5 of the impulse pending. Expect minor wave 5 probe into 125.5–126.5; a decisive break/close above 126.2 opens a retest of 128.8.

Correlation/context

• While BTC/crypto beta not provided, LTC historically correlates positively with BTC. The absence of risk-off wicks and the maintenance of 120+ suggests broader market not in distress; base case favors mean-reversion up within range.

Candlestick/price action tells

• Daily: Post-breakout consolidation bars with smaller real bodies; no bearish engulfing on daily timeframe.
• Hourly: Descending channel from ~126 to ~121 with decreasing spread and overlapping candles—sellers losing momentum; hammer-like lower wicks near 121.2–121.6 show responsive buying.

Risk management and scenarios

• Base case (60%): Buy-the-dip continuation within 121–126 range; magnet levels 124.4 (R1) and 125.7–126.2 (upper boundary).
• Bull extension (25%): Clean reclaim >126.2 on rising volume pushes 127.5–128.8.
• Bear detour (15%): Loss of 121 with acceptance below 120.3 triggers a sweep toward 119.3 (S1). Invalidation of bullish 24h view below 119 on hourly close.

Timing and execution

• Optimal entry: Staggered limit bids 121.2–121.6; single-price plan uses 121.35 (just above today’s swing low) to improve RR while likely getting filled in continued balance.
• Targeting: First target 124.4 (R1); stretch to 125.6–126.0 if momentum confirms.
• Stop (not part of requested fields, but prudent): 119.20 (below S1/fib cluster), yielding ~2:1 RR vs 125.6.

24-hour price path expectation

• Likely session path: Early Asia test 121.2–121.6 support → bounce toward 123.5–124.4 by Europe → attempt at 125.6–126.0 during US hours if volumes cooperate. Expected 24h range: 121.0–126.0, with mild bullish skew.

Conclusion

• The confluence of rising MAs, healthy momentum regime (RSI ~60), adherence to pivots/fibs, supportive volume structure above 120, and intraday basing at the channel lower rail all favor a tactical long. Buy dips near 121.3–121.6 aiming for a rotation to 124.4 first, then 125.6–126.0 within 24 hours. Invalidate on sustained trade <119.3.