Litecoin Price Analysis Powered by AI

LTC Post-Capitulation Play: Buy the S1 Retest, Aim for the 50% Retrace at 101

Executive summary

Bias next 24h: Mildly bullish toward 99.5–101.0 after a post-capitulation base. Expect range 96.2–101.2 with intraday dip-buying favored.
Plan: Buy the retest of daily S1/pivot cluster near 96.5–96.9, target the 50% crash retracement/round-number supply around 100.8–101.0.

Regime shift: 2025-10-10 produced an extreme liquidation candle (H 135.56, L 66.26, C 96.63) on record volume (3.80B), followed by stabilization 90–101. The long lower wick is classic capitulation/spring behavior, often preceding mean-reversion bounces.
Since the flush: 10/11 C 93.42 (secondary wash), 10/12 C 98.76 (bounce), 10/13 C 99.57 (small follow-through), 10/14 last 98.02 (minor pullback within range). Structure points to value forming around 96–100.
Intraday (10/14): Morning drift down to 92.05 (12:00), then persistent climb with higher lows into the US session, closing the hourly sequence near 97.88–98.02. Demand emerged repeatedly above 92–93 and again near 95.5–96.5.

Trend analysis (multi-timeframe) Daily MAs (approximations from provided closes)

5D SMA ≈ 97.28; price 98.02 just above (short-term momentum positive).
10D SMA ≈ 108.52; 20D SMA ≈ 109.65; price well below both (intermediate trend still down). Implication: countertrend bounce likely, but medium-term sellers overhead into 108–110. Hourly trend
Post-12:00 UTC: sequence of higher lows and higher highs into the close. Momentum inflection suggests short-term uptrend within a broader daily consolidation.

RSI (daily, est.): Low-to-mid 40s after crash; recovering but below 50, consistent with basing/mean-reversion rather than full trend reversal.
RSI (hourly, qualitative): Turned up through the afternoon as price reclaimed 96–98, typical of a rebound day after morning weakness.
MACD (daily): Bearish and below signal following 10/10, histogram contraction as price stabilizes—bearish momentum fading.
MACD (hourly): Crossed positive during the intraday recovery; supports a push into 99.5–101.0 if dips are defended.
Stochastics (intraday, qualitative): Cycled out of oversold after 12:00 UTC, consistent with a near-term grind higher.

ATR(14) daily (est.): Elevated post-crash (≈ 6–8), implying wide intraday ranges persist. Position sizing should respect larger-than-normal swings.
Bollinger Bands (20D, est. SMA ≈ 109.6): Bands expanded materially on 10/10; current price sits below mid-band, nearer the lower band after expansion—setup often favors mean reversion toward the mid-band, but time to reach is beyond 24h.

38.2% = 92.71 (held repeatedly as support since 10/11–10/14); price currently above.
50% = 100.91 (major near-term target/ceiling); aligns with round-number 101 and recent supply.
61.8% = 109.10 (bigger-picture resistance, not a 24h target).

Pivot P ≈ 98.92
S1 ≈ 96.57
R1 ≈ 101.93
S2 ≈ 93.56; R2 ≈ 104.28 Interpretation: Current 98.02 is below P but above S1; statistically, reversion to P is common if S1 holds. S1 at 96.6 coincides with intraday bid zones—high-probability dip-buy area. R1 lines up with the 101–102 supply shelf.

Supports: 92.0–93.6 (S2/10/14 intraday sweep), 95.0–95.6 (intraday shelf), 96.5–96.7 (S1/volume node).
Resistances: 98.9–99.2 (pivot/micro supply), 100.8–101.0 (50% retracement + round number), 101.9–102.0 (R1), 104.3 (R2).

10/10 blow-off volume confirms capitulation mechanics; subsequent days show declining but still elevated activity—healthy for base building.
Visible high-volume node (last few sessions) at 96–100 suggests a developing point of control near 98–99; price tends to gravitate to this area before selecting direction.

Session behavior (10/14) showed a reclaim above likely session VWAP into the afternoon as bids persisted above 96.5. Maintaining acceptance above VWAP favors a test of daily pivot and 100+.

Price below cloud; Tenkan likely below Kijun, Kumo overhead—still a bearish higher-timeframe posture. However, distance to Kijun (~105–110 region) provides mean-reversion magnet over days; within 24h, expect attempts toward pivot/R1 first.

10/10 candle: capitulation wick (“spring”).
10/11–10/14: forming a rounded base/volatility contraction within 93–101. Intraday 10/14: higher-lows sequence suggests buyers probing toward overhead liquidity around 99–101.

S1 at 96.6 holds on a retest; price rotates back to pivot 98.9 and attempts 100.8–101.0. Day closes within 99.2–100.5. Upside extension (20%):
Strong momentum carry through pivot to R1 101.9; stalls below 102.0–102.5. Would require continued bid and no fresh systemic shock. Downside risk (20%):
Failure at S1 leads to a quick test of 95.0–95.6, and if liquidity thins, a sweep to S2 93.6. Capitulation continuation not base case given prior absorption, but elevated ATR means it’s possible.

Bias: Buy dips into S1 cluster. Favor limit entry to improve risk-reward.
Entry: 96.7 (near S1 96.57; inside 96.5–96.9 demand zone).
Target: 100.9 (confluence: 50% crash retracement, psychological 101, pre-R1 supply). Allows exit before likely heavy offers at 101.9.
Stop (not part of required fields but for completeness): 94.8 (below 95 shelf and safely under S2 sweep risk), yielding roughly 1.9 downside vs 4.2 upside (R:R ≈ 2.2).
Alternate trigger: If price drives without dipping and reclaims 99.2–99.5 with momentum, a momentum add-on could target 100.5–101.0 with a tight intraday stop below 98.6.

Post-capitulation basing with repeated defenses above 92–93 and intraday bid near 96.5.
Short-term momentum flipped positive (hourly) while sitting under well-defined upside magnets (pivot 98.9 and 100.9). Selling here risks shorting into value with poor reward vs recent absorption.

Let price probe 96.5–96.9; watch for stabilization/higher lows on 5–15 minute compressions before fill. Avoid chasing into 99–100 unless momentum breadth is obvious.
If major market-wide volatility resurfaces (another systemic wick), cancel and reassess near 93.6 and 92.0.

Forecast summary (24h)