LTC: Sell the rip into 0.382–0.50 Fib — bear flag below the lower band aims for an 85 retest

Executive summary • Bias (next 24h): Mildly bearish to range-bound, expecting a fade from resistance into 85–85.5 with risk of a liquidity sweep toward 84.5, then choppy bounce. Baseline range projection: 84.8–89.8 with center of gravity near 86.7–87.2. • Plan: Sell-the-rip into hourly resistance. Best Risk/Reward appears on a tactical short at 87.9–88.4, targeting 85.0–85.5. Invalidation above 89.6–90.0 on an hourly close.

Step-by-step technical analysis

1. Multi-timeframe trend and structure • Daily structure: Since the early-October rebound to ~127.45 (10/09), price has made persistent lower highs and lower lows, then a regime shift on 10/10 (135.56→66.26 intraday) created a high-volatility overhang. Subsequent attempts back to ~100–106 (10/26–10/29 and 11/01–11/02) failed, culminating in a sharp breakdown on 11/03–11/04 to mid-80s and an intraday capitulation low at 80.10 (11/04). Current price 87.30 sits well below the recent value area (95–101), i.e., under overhead supply. • 4H/1H structure (11/05–11/06): Lower highs and lower lows persist intraday. Today’s range 85.56–88.95 with repeated fades near 87.9–88.6 indicates sellers active at shallow bounces. Price is riding under a descending intraday channel with weak follow-through on upticks. • Takeaway: Primary trend: down. Near-term: consolidation within a bearish context, leaning toward another test of the 85–86 floor.

2. Moving averages (trend filters) • 20-day SMA (approx): ~94.3 (computed from the last 20 daily closes). Spot at 87.3 is ~7.4% below the 20SMA; bearish and indicates compression toward lower Bollinger. • 50-day SMA (qualitative): Likely in the low- to mid-100s given sustained pricing 110–120 pre-10/10 and the subsequent weeks spent mostly 95–110; price is well below the 50SMA. This confirms medium-term downtrend. • 9/21 EMAs (qualitative): Both EMAs are descending with spot below them; short-term trend remains down. Slopes negative; any bounce into the 9/21 EMA confluence (upper-80s to ~92) faces supply. • Read: MA stack is bearish (price < 9EMA < 21EMA < 20SMA < 50SMA), favoring rallies sold.

3. Momentum oscillators • Daily RSI(14) (approx calc from closes 10/23→current): ~42. This is below the 50 midpoint but not oversold, leaving room for another leg down without immediate mean-reversion pressure. • Hourly RSI toggles in mid-40s to low-50s, consistent with range churn under a descending bias; no strong bullish divergence evident against 11/04’s 80.10 capitulation (today’s intraday lows are higher, but momentum remains lackluster). • Stochastics (qualitative): Rising off near-oversold on intraday frames but stalling into resistance, aligning with sell-the-rip setups. • Read: Momentum is weakly negative; any RSI upticks are failing near 50–55 on lower timeframes—classic bear market rallies.

4. MACD • Daily MACD line below signal and below zero, histogram marginally improving (less negative) as volatility compresses from the 11/03–11/04 shock. This suggests decelerating downside momentum but not a confirmed reversal. • 4H MACD shows shallow histogram bulges that fail at zero-line retests; sellers active near neutral momentum. • Read: Momentum pause rather than reversal; room for another push lower if resistance zones hold.

5. Volatility and ATR • Post-10/10 regime: volatility elevated. The 11/03–11/04 ranges (~13 and ~10.7) boosted ATR materially. A rough 14-day ATR estimate sits high (mid-single to high-single dollars). • 24h implied move proxy (ATR/√time not strictly applied here): Expect ±2.5–3.5 from the mean, giving an 84.8–89.8 tactical range baseline with tail risk to ~84.5 (support sweep) and resistance spikes to ~89.8–90.5.

6. Bollinger Bands (20,2) • 20SMA ~94.3. Given recent realized vol, lower band estimates cluster near 85.0–85.5; current price (87.3) is hugging the lower half of the envelope. On trend days, hugging the lower band tends to continue; on consolidation days, mean reversion targets the mid-band (~94), which is far above and unlikely to be reclaimed in the next 24h without a catalyst. Probability favors band-walk over immediate mid-band reversion.

7. Fibonacci levels • From 11/04 low (80.10) to 11/01 local high (101.40): – 38.2%: ~88.25 – 50%: ~90.75 – 61.8%: ~93.29 • Price repeatedly faded near 88.2–89.5 (hourly 89.84 on 11/05–06), validating the 38.2–50% retracement zone as near-term resistance. • Read: 88.2–90.8 is a selling zone unless momentum expansion flips.

8. Support/Resistance mapping (confluence) • Supports: 85.56 (today’s low), 85.48 (11/04 close), 84.55 (10/17 low), major 80.10 (capitulation low). • Resistances: 87.9–88.6 (intraday supply shelf), 89.4–89.8 (hourly rejection cluster), 90.7–91.0 (50% fib / psychological), 93.3–95.5 (61.8% fib and prior close 95.49), 98.6–101.4 (heavy overhead supply and prior swing highs). • The heaviest volume-by-price zone from October sits ~95–101, now overhead, reinforcing sell-the-rip bias below it.

9. Candlestick/Pattern read • 11/03: Large red candle; 11/04: wide range down day with a deep lower tail intraday but a weak close—no classical bullish engulfing or hammer confirmation. The last two sessions show small bodies near the lows (indecision at weak support). Intraday profile: bear flag consolidation between ~86–89 after a sharp downswing—a break lower from a flag is the typical resolution without a catalyst.

10. Ichimoku (qualitative) • Daily: Price below Kumo; Tenkan below Kijun and both below the cloud. Kijun likely above spot (~mid-90s). Bearish alignment. • 4H: Price below cloud with flat Kijun acting as magnet/resistance (around upper-80s to low-90s), typically capping bounces.

11. Volume/Flow • Largest volume spikes coincide with selloffs (10/10, 10/28, 11/03–11/04). Rallies occur on lighter participation. OBV-like behavior (qualitative) trends down. No evidence of strong accumulation at current levels.

12. Elliott/Fractal (light application) • The 11/01–11/04 sequence reads as an impulsive 5-wave down on intraday charts, followed by a shallow ABC corrective structure peaking near the 0.382 fib (~88.2–89.5). Another C’ leg down toward 84.5–85.0 is consistent with this count.

13. Scenario analysis (next 24h) • Base case (60%): Bear flag resolves down from 87.9–88.4 supply; push into 85.0–85.5 with a potential wick to 84.5; late-session stabilization near 86.5–87.0. • Range case (30%): 86.0–88.8 chop persists; closes near 87.0–87.5. • Squeeze case (10%): Break and hold above 89.6–90.0 sends price to 90.7–91.5 and possibly 92.8–93.3, where sellers likely reassert given overhead supply.

14. Risk management and levels that change the view • Invalidation: Hourly close > 89.6 and especially > 90.0 (50% retrace) weakens the short. Strong invalidation on sustained trade > 90.8. • Downside targets: 85.5 first, then 85.0; extension 84.5; extreme 80.1 if panic resumes (low probability in 24h absent new shock). • R:R on a short at 87.9 with TP 85.0 and stop 90.2: Reward ~2.9 vs risk ~2.3 → ~1.3:1. Tightening stop to 89.8 after entry improves R:R if resistance confirms.

15. Synthesis • Trend filters (MAs, Ichimoku), momentum (RSI/MACD), and pattern context (bear flag below fib 0.382–0.5) align to favor fading bounces. Bollinger positioning (sub-midband, near lower band) suggests trend continuation risk outweighs immediate snapback to the 20SMA. Volume asymmetry supports the sellers on upticks. Therefore, a tactical short into 87.9–88.4 has the highest expectancy over the next 24 hours.

Prediction (24h path) • A modest pop into 87.9–88.4 likely fails, leading to 85.0–85.5 test; possible liquidity sweep to ~84.5 before rebounding toward 86.7–87.2 by the end of window.

Trade plan • Decision: Sell (Short Position). • Entry: 87.90 (sell-the-rip limit). If immediate downside accelerates, aggressive market entry at 87.30 is viable but reduces R:R; preferred is patience for 87.9±0.3. • Take-profit: 85.00. Consider partial at 85.5, trail remainder. • Stop (not required but recommended): 90.20 (hourly close basis). Tighten to 89.8 if rejection is clean at entry.