LTC Pullback to the 38.2%: Setting a Tactical Long Off 102–104 Support

Market snapshot and context

• Instrument: Litecoin (LTC/USD)
• Current price (last hourly print): 104.45
• Recent structure: V-shaped recovery from the Nov 3–4 capitulation zone (85–90), breakout to 113.24 on Nov 9 with very high volume, followed by a sharp retracement today into the 104s.
• Intraday tone (1H): Persistent sequence of lower highs since the midnight session; decisive breakdown in the 21:00 hour to 104.3 with follow-through supply. Price is testing a dense confluence of supports just above 102–103.

Multi-timeframe trend read

• Daily trend: Transitioning from bearish to constructive. Price is now above the 20- and 50-day averages after a multi-week downtrend; however, today’s bearish daily candle signals a pullback within a nascent uptrend.
• 1H trend: Short-term bearish (below intraday moving averages and recent hourly lower highs). The 1H is likely in a corrective leg within a bigger daily upswing.

Key levels (confluence-driven)

• Resistance: 107.0–108.4 (intraday supply, mid-day highs), 110.8–111.6 (prior breakdown shelf and 1H supply), 113.2 (Nov 9 high), 115.9 (classic pivot R1 from Nov 9).
• Support: 104.2–104.5 (current 1H breakdown test), 103.2–103.0 (minor shelf), 102.6 (38.2% retrace of 85.48→113.24), 101.8 (Nov 9 S1 from pivots), 100.0 (psych), 99.4 (50% retrace), 96.1 (61.8% retrace and late-Oct acceptance).

Classical pivots (calculated from Nov 9: H 113.24, L 99.16, C 110.17)

• Pivot P ≈ 107.52
• R1 ≈ 115.88, R2 ≈ 121.60
• S1 ≈ 101.81, S2 ≈ 93.45 Current price is below P and above S1, implying mean-reversion upside toward 107.5 if S1 holds.

Moving averages (daily, approximations from provided closes)

• 20-SMA ≈ 96.8: Price trades well above; short-term trend bias up.
• 50-SMA ≈ 102.7: Price above; medium-term trend inflecting bullish.
• 200-SMA: Not directly computable from dataset; structurally likely above current price given the multi-month decline into Oct. That keeps the longer-term trend cautious but improving. Implication: Pullbacks toward 102–103 are technically buyable while above the 50-SMA.

Bollinger Bands (daily, 20,2; approximations)

• Basis (20-SMA): ~96.8; Upper: ~110.8; Lower: ~82.8.
• Yesterday’s push to 110–111 tagged/sat near the upper band, and today’s retrace pulled price back inside the envelope—typical of a pause within an upswing. Position now in upper half of the band and above basis supports long-on-dip bias.

Momentum

• RSI(14) daily: Estimated low-to-mid 50s after pullback (likely ~52–56). Not overbought; room to bounce.
• 1H RSI: Likely near 30–35 after the 21:00 flush, signaling short-term oversold within hourly trend.
• MACD daily: Likely crossed positive on the recent rally; histogram contracting today but still above zero—constructive pullback signature.
• Stochastics: Daily rolling down from overbought; hourly oversold—setup for an intraday bounce within a daily uptrend.

Volatility and range

• ATR(14) daily: Elevated; approximate 6–8 dollars (6–8%). A 24-hour swing of $5–8 is plausible.
• Expectation: If 102–103 holds, a +$3–6 rebound into 106.5–110 is attainable within 24 hours. If 101.8 breaks decisively, a $3–6 extension down into 99–100/96–97 is feasible.

Volume and tape

• Nov 9 breakout volume was very high (~2.03B), indicating strong participation. Today’s sell volume is also elevated, suggesting a fast correction but not necessarily a trend reversal, as price remains above the 50-SMA and the 38.2% retracement.
• Oct 10’s extreme volatility candle (flash-crash type move with massive volume) often marks or precedes cyclical capitulation. Subsequent basing into late Oct/early Nov and the recent breakout are consistent with accumulation transitioning to markup.

Fibonacci structure (from Nov 3 low 85.48 to Nov 9 high 113.24)

• 23.6%: ~106.7 (failed intraday today)
• 38.2%: ~102.6 (now near-term magnet/support)
• 50%: ~99.4
• 61.8%: ~96.1 Current price sits just above 38.2%. Typical wave-2/ABC corrections often terminate around 38.2–61.8%; first bounce zone aligns with 102.6–103.2.

Ichimoku (directional read, approximations)

• 1H: Price below Tenkan and Kijun and under cloud—intraday bearish; a mean-reversion test toward Kijun/cloud (107–108) is plausible if a local low forms at 102–104.
• Daily: Likely above Tenkan, near/around Kijun inflection (due to recent expansion in range). Cloud posture improving but not definitively bullish yet.

Market structure and patterning

• Daily higher-high established versus late Oct highs; pullback is first significant daily lower intraday sequence since the breakout—common pause behavior.
• 1H showing a falling channel since the overnight session; price now at/near the lower channel boundary. A channel bounce targets the midline near 106.5–107.5.
• Potential bull flag on daily: Impulse up (Nov 3→Nov 9), then downward-sloping consolidation day; validation requires reclaiming 107.5 (daily pivot) and then 110–111.

Regression and VWAP reads (approximate)

• Linear regression (Nov 3→Nov 9) slope remains positive; current price has reverted toward the lower band.
• Anchored VWAP from the Nov 7 breakout day likely sits around 103–104; price is testing this dynamic support region—another confluence.

Order flow and liquidity pockets

• Stops likely clustered below 104.2/104.0 and especially below 102.6/101.8. A brief liquidity sweep into 102–103 followed by a sharp rebound is a high-probability intraday pattern in such contexts.
• Overhead liquidity pockets at 107.5 (daily pivot) and 109.8–110.2 (prior breakdown shelf) are attractive magnet levels for a relief rally.

Elliott-style mapping (heuristic)

• Impulse (i) from ~85.5 to ~101.8, (ii) shallow pullback into ~95–99, (iii) extension to ~113.2, now (iv) corrective pullback targeting 38.2% (~102.6). A (v) attempt could target 112–115 if the trend persists later this week; near-term objective is reclaiming 107.5 then 109.8–110.2.

Risk framework and trade thesis

• Bullish factors: Price > 20/50-SMA, pullback to 38.2% Fib, 1H oversold, strong confluence of supports at 102.6–103.2, and mean-reversion tendency to daily pivot ~107.5.
• Bearish risks: Intraday momentum negative; loss of 101.8 opens 99.4 (50% Fib) and 96.1 (61.8%). Elevated volatility can run stops before reversing.
• Base case (55%): Hold 102.6–103.2 zone, bounce to 106.5–109.8 in 24 hours.
• Bear case (35%): Break 101.8; slide to 99.4 with intraday bounces failing at 104–105.
• Tail (10%): Disorderly flush to 96–97 (61.8% retrace) before stabilization.

Entry, target, and risk parameters

• Optimal entry: Limit buy in the 103.0–103.5 zone to capture the confluence at 38.2% and just above S1 101.8. Given current 104.45, a patient bid at 103.20 provides favorable asymmetric risk.
• Take-profit objective (24h): 109.8 (prior shelf and below 110.2 supply; aligns with ATR bandwidth and liquidity pocket). Secondary extension 110.8–111.6 if momentum accelerates.
• Suggested risk (not part of order schema but essential): Protective stop ~100.9 (below S1 101.8 and round 101 sweeps), yielding R:R ≈ 2.8:1 from 103.2→109.8.

Candlestick/price-action confirmation to watch

• 1H bullish reversal signal (hammer/engulfing) at or just below 103.5.
• Reclaim of 105.8–106.3 (intraday micro-resistance) to confirm momentum shift.
• Acceptance above the daily pivot 107.5 turns the session decisively constructive.

Projection for next 24 hours

• Expect early probe/sweep into 103.5→102.6, then a rebound toward 106.5 with extension into 107.5–109.8 if buyers defend S1 (101.8) on any spikes. Failure to hold 101.8 negates the long setup and likely targets 99.4.

Bottom line

• The pullback sits at a high-quality confluence (38.2% Fib, above 50-SMA, near anchored support). While the 1H is weak, the daily remains constructive. Probability-weighted outcome favors a tactical long with tight risk below 101.8 and profit-taking into 109–110.