LTC: Buy the Dip Near $100 for a Push Toward $106 as Post-Capitulation Base Builds

Executive snapshot

• Instrument: Litecoin (LTC/USD)
• Current price: 102.11
• Timeframe analyzed: Daily primary, Hourly secondary (last ~36 hours)
• Bias (next 24h): Buy-the-dip within a developing basing structure; expect a retest of 104.5–106.5 after a pullback toward 100–101

1. Market structure and trend (multi-timeframe)

• Higher-timeframe context (since the Oct 10 capitulation): Massive volatility spike (intraday low ~66.26) created a capitulation wick followed by a multi-week base. Price rallied into Nov 9 high ~110.17, retraced to ~96.79, and is now recovering. This is consistent with post-capitulation accumulation.
• Daily structure: A sequence of higher lows versus early November (Nov 3–4 closes ~87–85 vs Nov 13 ~96.8) suggests emerging uptrend. Today’s candle: wide range with a long upper wick (high ~108.91) and close at 102.11. That shows supply near 109–110, but the close is still above the 20-DMA, keeping the constructive bias intact.
• Hourly structure: Strong impulse to 109 during the 13:00 hour, followed by a series of lower highs and controlled pullback to ~101.9–102.1. This looks like a bull flag/ascending base resolving the overbought intraday move. Key intraday support is 101.5–100.5; resistance 104.2, 106.0–106.9, 108.9–110.2.

2. Moving averages

• 20-DMA (approx): ~97.5 (computed from the last 20 closes). Price above 20-DMA → short-term positive.
• 50-DMA (approx): ~100–102 (broad estimate from late-Sep to present mix of 115–120 pre-crash and ~90–105 post-crash). With price ~102, price is near/just above the 50-DMA. The 20-DMA remains below the 50-DMA but flattening/rising; a subsequent 20>50 cross is plausible if recovery continues.
• Intraday MAs (hourly): Price pulled back toward rising hourly MAs after the 109 spike, consistent with healthy digestion rather than trend failure.

3. Momentum (RSI, Stochastics, MACD)

• Daily RSI(14): ~50–51 (computed from last 14 changes). Neutral-to-slightly positive—room to expand upward before overbought.
• Stochastics (qualitative): Recovered from oversold in early Nov; now in mid-range, consistent with a reset after a strong bounce.
• MACD (qualitative): Post-crash bullish cross likely occurred in early Nov; histogram cooled during the pullback to 96–98 and is stabilizing near the zero line—setup conducive to another push if price reclaims 104–105 with momentum.

4. Volatility and Bollinger Bands

• Daily ATR(14) (approx): Elevated (~7–9) reflecting recent regime shift. Expect wider-than-normal 24h ranges.
• Bollinger Bands(20): Mid-band ≈ 20-DMA ~97.5; upper band likely ~109–110, lower band ~85–86 (given recent vol). Price tapped the upper band today (~108.9) and mean-reverted. With price now near 102, the path of least resistance after a further shallow dip is a re-test of 104.5–106.5 (bandwalk attempt) if momentum rekindles.

5. Volume and participation

• Today’s volume (~1.17B) is above the recent average, with heavy supply appearing 108.9–110 (long upper wick). However, pullback volumes intraday decelerated, suggesting consolidation rather than distribution. Watch for renewed buy-side volume on breaks through 104.2/106.0.

6. Fibonacci and key levels

• Major swing: Oct 10 low (66.26) → Nov 9 high (110.17). The retrace to early Nov lows (80–88) tested the 50–61.8% zone and held—structurally bullish.
• Minor swing: Nov 13 low (96.79) → Nov 15 high (108.91). 38.2% = ~104.6; 50% = ~102.85; 61.8% = ~101.1. Price has gravitated between 102–103 and briefly touched ~101.9, aligning well with the 50–61.8% retrace zone—textbook spot for continuation if the trend is to resume.
• Horizontal S/R: Support 100.0 (psych), 99.4–99.9 (late-Oct pivots), 96.8–97.5 (recent swing/20-DMA). Resistance 104.2 (Nov 10 close), 106.0–106.9 (cluster of prior closes/highs), 108.9–110.2 (today’s spike and Nov 9 high).

7. Ichimoku (daily, approximations)

• Tenkan (9-mid): ~99.7; Kijun (26-mid): ~103.7. Price is above Tenkan and just below Kijun—neutral-to-constructive. A reclaim and hold above ~104 would put price above Kijun, often a signal for further upside toward the top of prior range (~109–110).

8. Candlestick read

• Daily: Long upper shadow implies supply around 109–110, but the green real body and close above prior closes indicate demand underneath. Not a clean shooting star due to green body and context of a rebound from higher low.
• Hourly: Post-spike consolidation with shrinking candles near 102 suggests absorption rather than panic—favors a measured leg higher once sellers exhaust near 103–104.

9. Wyckoff/Elliott framing

• Wyckoff: Capitulation (Oct 10), then accumulation zone, a sign of strength into Nov 9, followed by a low-volume reaction to ~96–98 (back-up to the creek). Today’s push and pullback resemble a successful test. Next step would be a markup toward the 106–110 supply.
• Elliott (heuristic): Five-wave advance from ~85–87 to ~110, ABC correction to ~96.8 (B complete), now starting a smaller impulsive sequence. Near-term wave targets sit at 104.5–106.5 before any attempt to challenge 109–110.

10. Statistical/mean-reversion overlay

• After touching the upper band and retracing to the 50–61.8% of the minor swing, a bounce toward the 38.2–23.6% retracement magnets (104.6 → 106.8) is statistically common within the next 1–2 sessions, especially with RSI neutral and price above the 20-DMA.

11. Correlation/market regime notes

• LTC often correlates with BTC/majors; weekends can feature thinner liquidity and sharper wicks. Plan entries where slippage is tolerable (around psychologically sticky 100–101), and avoid chasing into 106–110 supply on first touch.

Projection: next 24 hours

• Base case (60%): Early dip toward 100.5–101.2 finds buyers; rally to 104.2 first, then extension into 105.8–106.8. Close within 103.5–106.0.
• Bull case (25%): Strong bid absorbs quickly above 102.5; break and hold over 106.9 opens a run to 108.9–110.2. Close 106.5–109.5.
• Bear case (15%): Liquidity sweep sub-100 toward 99.0–98.5; if 98.5 fails, quick test 97.5. Rebound likely, but upside capped near 103–104 within 24h.

Trading plan (short-term swing, 24–48h horizon)

• Strategy: Buy the dip into 100–101 confluence (psych level, 61.8% of minor swing ~101.1, hourly support, near 50-DMA). Avoid buying into 104–106 on first push.
• Entry: 100.8 (limit). Tolerance to 100.2 if volatility spikes; scale-in only if ATR expands into the low 100s.
• Take profit (24h objective): 106.6 (below resistance band 106.9 to front-run supply and reduce slippage).
• Risk management (not part of the requested outputs but critical): Protective stop suggested near 97.2 (below 20-DMA/Nov 13 swing). R:R ≈ (106.6−100.8)/(100.8−97.2) ≈ 5.8/3.6 ≈ 1.6:1. Probability-weighted favorable given structure.

Key levels to watch

• Supports: 101.1 (61.8% retrace), 100.0 (psych), 99.4, 97.5 (20-DMA), 96.8 (swing).
• Resistances: 104.2 (pivot), 106.0–106.9 (cluster), 108.9–110.2 (supply zone).

Conclusion

• The broader post-capitulation structure, positioning above the 20-DMA, neutral RSI, and the intraday retrace to golden-ratio support favor a tactical long on dips. Expect a probe of 104.5–106.5 within the next 24 hours, with a stretch goal into 108 if momentum/flows improve. I would enter around 100.8 and target 106.6, reassessing if price closes below ~97.5.