LTC poised for a throwback short: Sell the 96.5 retest, target 92 within 24 hours

Executive summary and market regime

• Context: After the Oct-10 shock (intraday low near 66, close ~96.6) LTC has chopped in a wide sideways regime between roughly 85–110. Early November printed a sharp rally into 110–113 (Nov 8–9), but since then price has been carving lower highs and lower lows. Today’s session broke back under 100 and slid to the mid-95s.
• Current: 95.56, down ~6% from yesterday’s 101.77, trading in the lower half of the 85–110 range.
• Bias (next 24h): Bearish continuation with a risk of a small relief bounce into prior broken support near 96.1–96.7. Preferred short entries on a throwback; momentum and structure favor a test of 93–92, with stretch risk to 91–90 if selling accelerates.

Trend and moving averages

• SMA(20): ≈97.28 (computed from last 20 daily closes). Price is below the 20-SMA → short-term bearish.
• SMA(50): qualitatively in the 104–106 area (owing to the earlier 110–120 prints), with the 20-SMA < 50-SMA → bearish alignment.
• EMAs: The 12/26-EMA slope has rolled over since Nov 10; price is below both EMAs → momentum on daily is negative. Interpretation: Trend stack is bearish in the short term; medium term is range-bound but leaning down while under 100–102.

Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) daily: ≈47 (derived from the last 14 closes). Neutral-to-bearish; no oversold signal yet, so room to fall before any strong mean-reversion impulse.
• Stochastic (14): ≈41 (using LL≈85.48, HH≈110.17). Also neutral-to-bearish, not pinned; can travel lower.
• MACD: Diff negative since mid-Nov; histogram expanding down today → momentum building on the downside. Interpretation: Oscillators confirm downside pressure without being exhausted; odds favor continued drift lower before a durable bounce.

Volatility and bands

• ATR(14) daily: roughly 8–10 (recent ranges 6–18). Implies a typical 24h swing of 8–10 points → 24h feasible price envelope ≈ 86–104 from the 95–96 pivot.
• Bollinger Bands(20,2): Mid ≈97.3; estimated lower ≈84–85; upper ≈110–111. Price is below the mid-band and riding the lower half → bearish bias but not at an extreme.
• Keltner Channel (EMA20 ±1.5×ATR): Center ~97; lower channel ~83–84. Price well above the extreme lower channel → more room downward before volatility becomes statistically stretched. Interpretation: Vol expansion post-break of 100; downside cushion remains before statistical extremes flash.

Volume, VWAP, and OBV read

• Daily volume today is moderate vs prior week but clustered during sell waves (notably 15:00–18:00 UTC on the hourly tape) → distribution on down moves.
• Intraday VWAP (today) likely around 100 (heavy trade around 101–102 early; larger volume on the slide). Current price ~4–5% below VWAP → persistent intraday weakness; bounces toward 96–98 are likely sold.
• OBV (qualitatively): lower since Nov 10, consistent with distribution. Interpretation: Bears in control intraday; retests of broken support should attract supply.

Market structure, price action, and candlesticks

• Daily structure: Lower high sequence from 110 (Nov 9) → 104 (Nov 10) → 101.8 (Nov 15 close) with a long upper wick on Nov 15 (shooting star/rejection near 109). Today broke back under 100 and undercut the 11/12–11/14 basing area (~97.5–99.0). Bearish break of structure.
• Intraday (hourly) 11/16: Stair-step lower highs/lows from ~103 → 100.9 → 98.0 → 96.9 → 95.6. No bullish engulfing or demand spike yet. Micro bear flags kept resolving down.
• Key horizontal levels: • Resistance: 96.1–96.7 (61.8% retrace zone of 86→113 impulse; also today’s breakdown retest), 98.0, 100.0–101.8, 106–110. • Supports: 95.0–95.6 (being tested), 93.3–94.1 (10/30–10/20 closes), 92.0–91.4 (78.6% retrace), then 90.1 and 85.5. Interpretation: Clean break and likely throwback into 96 area would be a textbook sell location.

Fibonacci mapping (from the Nov rally)

• Swing low (Nov 7) ≈86.10 to swing high (Nov 9) ≈113.24 → Δ = 27.14. • 38.2% = 102.87; 50% = 99.67; 61.8% = 96.46; 78.6% = 91.91.
• Price sits below the 61.8% (96.46). Sustained trade below 96.4 typically targets the 78.6% cluster near 91.9–92.0. Interpretation: Fibonacci structure supports a 92 test within the next 1–2 sessions if 96.4 caps any bounce.

Ichimoku and trend filters

• Price below Tenkan and Kijun; cloud (26-period) likely centered ~100–105 after recent range. With price under cloud and span likely flat-to-down, bias is bearish.
• Parabolic SAR would have flipped above price after today’s slide, reinforcing short bias. Interpretation: Systematic trend filters are aligned short.

Pivots (classic, based on Nov 15 H/L/C = 109.057 / 97.511 / 101.768)

• Pivot P = (H+L+C)/3 ≈ 102.779
• R1 = 2P − L ≈ 108.047; S1 = 2P − H ≈ 96.501
• R2 = P + (H − L) ≈ 114.325; S2 = P − (H − L) ≈ 91.233
• Today traded below S1 (96.50) and is heading toward S2 (91.23). A classic breakdown day commonly sees throwback to S1 before continuation to S2. Interpretation: Optimal short is a retest sell near 96.5 with target near 92 (front-running S2).

Measured move and pattern work

• Today’s intraday bear flag broke at ~96.9; height of prior leg ~101.8 → 96.0 (~5.8). Projecting another leg: 96.9 − 5.8 ≈ 91.1. This aligns with S2 (91.2) and 78.6% Fib (91.9).
• The Nov 15 shooting star near 109 acted as swing failure → continuation lower into support. Interpretation: Confluence around 91–92 for a downside target in the next 24–48 hours; 24h window favors 92±1 if momentum persists.

Risk map, scenarios, and probabilities (24h)

• Base case (≈60%): Throwback to 96.1–96.7, failure there, roll down to 93–92. Day closes 93.8–94.8.
• Bear extension (≈25%): No meaningful bounce; breaks 95 quickly and tags 92 then liquidity sweep to 90–91; late-day bounce to 92–93.
• Bull surprise (≈15%): Fast reclaim of 96.5, push to 98–99.7. Only above 100.5–101.8 does short-term bias flip to neutral.

Trade plan logic

• Edge: Multiple-tool confluence (trend under MAs, RSI/MACD bearish, pivot S1 break, 61.8% Fib lost, bear structure on hourly). High-probability “throwback sell” into 96.1–96.7.
• Optimal entry: 96.50 (pivot S1 retest and 61.8% Fib neighborhood 96.46). If liquidity front-runs, 96.3–96.7 remains valid; 96.50 is the midpoint.
• Target: 92.00 (front-run of 78.6% Fib 91.9 and pivot S2 91.23 to increase hit-rate within 24h). Stretch target (secondary, not required): 90.5–91.0.
• Invalidation (stop concept, for context): A daily/hourly close above 98.4 (back above broken intraday structure and into prior supply) or a strong reclaim of 100.5 would neutralize the setup.
• Risk/reward illustration (not an order instruction): Entry 96.5, stop 98.4 (−1.9), TP 92.0 (+4.5) → R:R ~2.4.

Bottom line forecast (next 24h)

• Expect a minor relief bounce toward 96.1–96.7 that fails, followed by continuation into 93–92. Probability-weighted close around 94–95, with intraday lows probing 92–92.5 if momentum persists.

Decision: Short on strength into 96.5; take profit at 92.0 within 24 hours unless momentum stalls earlier.