Litecoin Coiling Above Support: Targeting a Pivot Reversion to $100 in the Next 24 Hours

Executive summary

• Bias next 24 hours: Mildly bullish mean-reversion from support toward the 98–101 pivot zone.
• Rationale: Price is sitting on a multi-touch support band (94–97) with contracting volatility, improving short-term momentum signals (RSI/Stoch upturn), and a confluence of technical pivots (20‑day SMA ≈ 97.3, daily pivot ≈ 98.0, Fib 38.2% ≈ 98.2). Risk/reward favors a tactical long into the 100–101 area while the larger 50‑day trend resistance near 103–106 caps upside.
• Strategy: Buy on a pullback/limit near 96.2; take profit near 100.2 within 24h. Manage downside risk below 94.6 (stop discussed in plan; TP provided as closePrice).

1. Market structure and trend diagnostics

• Higher timeframe context (last ~90 sessions): • August rally into early October crescendo (Oct 9 high 127.45) followed by a capitulation (Oct 10 intraday low 66.26, close 96.63). Post-shock regime shifted to broad distribution 90–110. • Post-crash lower highs: 125.9 (Oct 9) → 113.2 (Nov 9) → 109.1 intraday (Nov 15). Lows: 80.1 (Nov 4) → 87.0 (Nov 6) → 95.9 (Nov 16) – a sequence of higher lows since early Nov, indicating basing inside a descending supply line. • Current regime: Symmetrical coil between rising demand line (~94–95) and descending supply (~106). We’re trading just above the demand line.

• Moving averages (spot ~96.69): • 20-day SMA ≈ 97.3 (computed from last 20 closes). Price is marginally below but within noise; reversion likely. • 50-day SMA (estimate) ≈ 104–106 given pre-crash strength then consolidation; price below 50SMA, so medium-term trend is still down, limiting upside to 101–106 on first test. • Short-term EMA stack (5/10/20) is compressed and flattening – a classic pre-move coiling signal; small up-tilt likely if we reclaim the 20SMA.

• Ichimoku (daily, qualitative): • Price below the cloud; cloud ahead thinning and flattening around 100–103, implying nearby dynamic resistance and potential magnet level on mean reversion. Tenkan expected near 98; Kijun ~101–102.

2. Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Midline ≈ 97.3; upper ≈ 110–111; lower ≈ 84–85. Price is just under the midline and bands have narrowed from the Oct/early Nov extremes – contraction favors a directional push. Given proximity to support and midline, a tilt toward the midline to slightly above (98–101) is favored.
• Keltner Channels (EMA20 ± 1.5×ATR14): With ATR14 ≈ 6.0, center ≈ 97.3; upper ≈ 106.3; lower ≈ 88.3. Current price is slightly under center – typical mean-reversion target is the center-to-upper inner zone (98–101) barring fresh shocks.
• ATR(14): ~6.0. A 1×ATR swing can carry price to ~102.7 on the upside or ~90.7 on the downside from current, but realized ranges lately are closer to 0.6–0.9×ATR. A 24h move to the 100–101 handle is well within typical dispersion.

3. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) (qualitative): Neutral to slightly bearish recently, likely 45–49, curling up from the mid-40s after the Nov 16 dip to 95.9. A push above 50 on an intraday reclaim of 98 would confirm a momentum shift.
• Stochastic (fast/slow): Coming out of a low-mid range; %K likely crossing above %D, a short-term buy impulse consistent with bounces off support.
• MACD (12,26,9): Below zero but histogram contraction visible post-Nov 16, implying downside momentum is waning. A small bullish cross is plausible if price closes above ~98–99.

4. Volume and flow

• Volume regime: Post-crash volumes elevated then tapered into consolidation. Nov 15 spike (attempt to 109 intraday) was rejected, then volume cooled on Nov 16 dip – a benign sign of seller exhaustion near support.
• OBV/Accumulation-Distribution (qualitative): OBV improved on Nov 7–9 burst to 110+ and has since drifted sideways; no aggressive distribution near 95–97, consistent with absorption.
• Volume profile (inferred): High-volume nodes around 96–97 and near 100. Price oscillates between these nodes; acceptance around 96–97 often precedes rotation to 99–101.

5. Key levels and confluences

• Horizontal support: 94–96 (multi-touch: Oct 15, Oct 23–24, Oct 31, Nov 12–14, Nov 16). Secondary support: 90–92 (Oct 17, Oct 21–22). Structural low: 85–87 zone (Nov 3–6) – unlikely in 24h absent market shock.
• Resistance: 98.0–98.2 (daily pivot and Fib 38.2%); psychological/round 100; 101.1 (R1 from pivots); 102.5 (Fib 38.2% of Nov 9→Nov 16 downswing); 104–106 (50SMA and descending trendline confluence).
• Fibonacci retracements: • Oct 9 high 127.45 → Nov 4 low 80.10: 38.2% ≈ 98.18, 50% ≈ 103.78, 61.8% ≈ 109.38. • Nov 9 high 113.24 → Nov 16 low 95.90: 38.2% ≈ 102.5, 50% ≈ 104.6, 61.8% ≈ 106.7. Confluence highlights 98–101 as the first major magnet zone; 104–106 is a heavier ceiling.
• Daily floor pivots (based on Nov 16 H/L/C ≈ 103.23/94.92/95.90): • Pivot P ≈ 98.02; R1 ≈ 101.12; R2 ≈ 106.33; S1 ≈ 92.81; S2 ≈ 89.71. Price under P favors early-session tests upward toward P; if reclaimed, R1 becomes viable within 24h.
• Anchored VWAP (qualitative): From Oct 10 capitulation close (~96.63), anchored VWAP likely ~99–101 after subsequent swings; this VWAP band reinforces the magnet near 100.

6. Pattern analysis

• Symmetrical triangle/coil: Rising lows (Nov 4 → Nov 6 → Nov 16) vs. falling highs (Nov 9 → Nov 15). We are near the lower boundary. Typical play: bounce toward the mid/upper triangle (98–101) before any decisive breakout.
• Candlesticks: • Nov 15: Long upper shadow (intraday 109.06 → close 101.77) shows supply above 106; but it also flushed weak longs. • Nov 16: Bearish day to 95.90 but not an impulsive expansion; body near lower range without volume acceleration – suggests exhaustion rather than fresh trend. • Nov 17 (latest intraday): Small green close near 96.69, a tentative stabilization candle.

7. Cross-method synthesis

• Mean reversion: With price slightly below the 20SMA/mid-BB and sitting in a dense HVN around 96–97, the statistical base case is a move toward the pivot/midline (98–100.5) within a day.
• Trend following: The 50SMA overhead reduces odds of sustained breakout; thus, set modest upside expectations (100–101) for the next session.
• Breakout risk: A close above ~101.5 opens a path to 104–106 (R2/50SMA/descending TL), but probability within 24h is lower given the coil stage and recent rejection.
• Downside scenarios: Failure to hold 95.5/94.8 could test 92.8 (S1) quickly; however, selling pressure has failed to accelerate on recent dips into this area, suggesting buyers are responsive.

8. Quantified expectation for the next 24 hours

• Expected range: 95.2–100.8 (base case), with tail extensions 94.5 or 101.5 on volatility spikes.
• Path dependency: Early reclaim of 98.0 pivot raises odds of tagging 100–101. Early loss of 95.5 invites a 94.0–94.8 test; below 94.6, momentum turns more negative (toward 92.8) – lower probability within 24h absent external shocks.

9. Trade plan (tactical, 24h)

• Setup: Mean-reversion long from support into confluence resistance.
• Entry: Staggered limit buy in the 96.0–96.4 pocket; primary trigger 96.2 to participate without chasing.
• Take-profit: 100.2 (below round-number supply at 100 and under R1≈101.1 to improve fill probability).
• Risk management (context only): A protective stop would typically sit below 94.6 (under the support shelf and just above S1≈92.8), yielding an attractive R:R versus a ~4.0 upside.
• Invalidations: A decisive hourly close <94.6 with expanding volume negates the bounce thesis; conversely, a strong impulsive break >101.5 with volume could justify momentum continuation targeting 103.8–104.6, but that’s beyond the base case for 24h.

10. Why Buy over Sell here

• Confluence at support (price, volume node, ATR bands, 20SMA midline) and a nearby, well-defined target zone (98–101) create a favorable skew for a long scalp/day trade.
• Momentum is turning up from neutral/oversold zones; sellers have not demonstrated acceleration on recent dips.
• The immediate overhead resistance cluster (100–101) offers a realistic, conservative TP inside 1×ATR and under daily R1, increasing odds of fill within one session.

Bottom line

• Probability-weighted outlook favors a bounce toward 98–101 over the next 24 hours. Execute a patient limit buy around 96.2 and exit into 100.2.