Meteora at S2: Sell the bounce before the next leg lower

Executive summary

• Bias: Bearish. Price is in a decisive downtrend, trading below all short-term averages, sitting at/under classical S2 support with momentum and breadth weak. Expect a relief bounce into resistance followed by another leg lower within 24 hours.
• Plan: Sell into strength (limit short) near 0.372–0.380 (prior support/pivot now resistance). Primary take‑profit 0.339–0.342. Invalidation on sustained reclaim above 0.404–0.406.

1. Market snapshot and context

• Instrument: Meteora (MET38353), quoted in $. Current price: 0.35952 as of 2025-11-03 08:46 UTC.
• Recent path: From 0.90 (10/23 intraday high) to 0.36 now (−60%), with persistent lower highs/lower lows across daily and hourly frames. Today printed new breakdown lows on the 1h (0.3595).
• Liquidity/volume: Elevated during the late-October selloffs (Oct 27–29), easing afterward. Hourly prints show activity on selloffs; volume spikes tend to coincide with down legs (distribution/markdown behavior).

2. Multi-timeframe trend analysis

• Daily structure: Sequence of lower highs: 0.900 (10/23) → 0.613 (10/24) → 0.582 (10/27) → 0.486–0.499 (10/30–10/31) → 0.452–0.449 (11/1–11/2). Lows stepping down as well: 0.511 → 0.507 → 0.516 → 0.440 → 0.428 → 0.441 → 0.461 → 0.441 → 0.422 → 0.391 → 0.359. Clear down channel.
• Hourly structure (11/02–11/03): Range broke from 0.404–0.411 to 0.374, consolidated 0.369–0.376, then flushed to 0.359–0.360. Failed bounces at 0.396–0.405 keep converting supports into resistance.
• Moving averages (approximated):
  • 5D SMA ≈ 0.425 (using last 5 closes incl. current): price −15% below.
  • 10D SMA ≈ 0.477: price −25% below.
  • 1H 20-period SMA (approx) trending from ~0.402 to ~0.375; price well below. Interpretation: Strong bearish momentum; any bounce is countertrend unless key MAs are reclaimed.

3. Momentum and breadth

• RSI (qualitative estimate):
  • Daily RSI likely in oversold zone after −60% in ~11 days and multiple closes under short MAs.
  • Hourly RSI likely sub-30 after continuous lower lows from 0.4046 → 0.3595 within ~24h. Oversold can persist in trends; expect reflex bounces into resistance rather than durable reversals.
• MACD (qualitative): Histogram negative, MACD < signal on both D and 1H given consistent lower highs. Momentum still pointing down; no bullish cross observed.
• Stochastic (1H): Likely pinned low with minor upticks on micro-bounces; until a base forms above 0.372–0.380, stochastic resets are sellable.
• CCI/ROC: Both would read deeply negative on 1H/4H; confirms trend strength.

4. Volatility and range

• Daily True Range examples:
  • 11/02: H-L ≈ 0.058 (≈14%).
  • Recent ranges often 10–20%: heightened volatility.
• Bollinger Bands (1H, approx): Expanding southward; price hugging/breaching lower band into 08:00. When bands expand and price rides the lower band, trend continuation is favored, but bounces to mid-band (~0.372–0.380) are common.
• Keltner/ATR view: Price below lower KC; expect mean‑reversion pops that offer better short entries.
• Donchian channels: New 20‑hour lows were set at 0.3595; breakdown conditions intact.

5. Market structure: support/resistance and supply/demand

• Immediate supports:
  • 0.359–0.360: fresh intraday low. Thin support; likely to break on next momentum push.
  • 0.356–0.357: Classical S2 pivot proximity (see pivot calc below).
  • 0.339–0.342: Anticipated measured move/halfway to S3, prior liquidity magnet.
  • 0.330–0.335: Next potential demand if capitulation accelerates.
• Overhead resistances:
  • 0.372–0.376: 1H consolidation shelf and 20-EMA/mid-BB area; first sell zone.
  • 0.380–0.381: Prior daily S1/pivot reaction zone; confluence with 1H midline.
  • 0.396–0.405: Heavy intraday supply cluster; former support now resistance; multiple failed reclaims on 11/02–03.
  • 0.441–0.445: Daily resistance if an outsized squeeze occurs.

6. Pivots and Fibonacci confluence

• Classical daily pivots using 11/02 (H=0.449366, L=0.391002, C=0.404564):
  • Pivot P ≈ 0.41498
  • R1 ≈ 0.43895, R2 ≈ 0.47334
  • S1 ≈ 0.38059, S2 ≈ 0.35661, S3 ≈ 0.32222 Current price 0.3595 ≈ S2; often produces a reflex bounce toward S1 (0.3806) before trend resumes lower toward S3 (0.3222) if weakness persists.
• Fibonacci retracements (from 0.4880 high on 10/31 to 0.3595 low now):
  • 23.6% ≈ 0.3898, 38.2% ≈ 0.409, 50% ≈ 0.424, 61.8% ≈ 0.438. Note how 0.389–0.409 aligns with the 0.396–0.405 supply and pivot P (0.415). Thus, rallies into 0.389–0.409 are high‑odds fade zones; 0.380–0.389 is the first sell region.

7. Pattern recognition and channels

• Descending channel/flag on 1H: Lower highs near 0.405, lower lows breaking 0.369 → 0.359. Measured move from the last flag (0.396 to 0.372 ≈ 0.024) projects from 0.372 to ~0.348, consistent with our 0.339–0.350 target area.
• No credible reversal candle on 1H at lows; latest 08:00 candle closed on its low, indicating selling pressure into the print.

8. Ichimoku (1H/4H qualitative)

• Price below cloud; cloud angled down. Tenkan < Kijun, price < Tenkan; Span A < Span B. Any bounce likely capped near Kijun/mid-band around 0.372–0.380 initially, and 0.396–0.405 on stronger squeeze.

9. Volume/flow analytics

• Distribution traits: Stronger volumes accompanying down candles (Oct 27–29, and multiple 1H sell waves). Failed attempts to build value above 0.40 and 0.396 show sellers active on every retest. OBV would be sloped down.

10. Regression/Z-score view (heuristic)

• 1H linear regression slope negative; price ~2–3σ below short-term mean earlier today, now stabilizing ~1.5–2σ below. This favors a small drift back toward the mean (0.372–0.378) before sellers reassert.

11. 24-hour roadmap (probabilistic path)

• Base case (55%): Relief bounce toward 0.372–0.380 (S1/1H mid-band), rejection, continuation lower to 0.342–0.349 within 24h. Liquidity hunts may spike as low as 0.333–0.336 before a late-day stabilizing bounce.
• Bear acceleration (25%): Minimal bounce; direct break of 0.356 leads to quick extension to 0.335–0.338 and possibly 0.325–0.330 wicks (approach toward S3 0.322).
• Bull surprise squeeze (20%): Reclaim 0.380 then 0.396–0.405. Only a firm hold above 0.405 would negate the short-term bear case and open 0.409–0.415 (Fib 38.2/Pivot P). Probability currently lower given structure and momentum.

12. Trade plan and risk management

• Thesis: Sell the rip into confluence resistance where reward-to-risk is maximized.
• Entry (short): 0.3723 limit sell (first resistance shelf, aligns with intraday midline and below S1 0.3806 to improve fill probability if bounce is shallow).
• Invalidation/stop (not part of order fields, for risk framing): 0.4055 (above the 0.404–0.405 supply and multiple 1H failures). If using a tighter stop, 0.3968 is an alternative but risks whipsaw.
• Take profit (primary): 0.3390 (midway between measured move target ~0.348 and the S2→S3 path; captures the expected continuation leg while front‑running deeper bids).
• Secondary management: If price fails to bounce to entry, a momentum continuation entry could be considered via a sell stop ~0.356, targeting 0.333–0.339. If a squeeze exceeds 0.380, add patience: scale entries 0.376–0.381 with the same invalidation.
• Position sizing: Reflect high ATR; size down to accommodate 7–9% adverse moves without forced exits.

13. Why not buy the dip?

• While hourly oscillators are oversold, trend, structure, and volume profile favor rallies being sold until 0.405+ is reclaimed. A tactical long would be countertrend and lower odds without clear reversal evidence.

14. Invalidation criteria

• Strong hourly close >0.405 with follow-through holds above 0.396 on retest would invalidate the short and flip bias to neutral-to-cautious-long toward 0.409–0.415.

Bottom line

• Expect a reflexive bounce into 0.372–0.380, then continuation lower toward 0.339–0.349 over the next 24 hours. Use strength to establish shorts; avoid chasing lows unless using a breakout plan with disciplined stops.