Meteora: Buy the Retest — Aiming for 0.408 After an Overbought Pause

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bullish continuation with a high likelihood of a pullback first. Expect a dip toward 0.378–0.383 to refuel, then a push into 0.402–0.408. Key resistance sits at 0.395 and 0.402–0.405; support at 0.385/0.381, then 0.372–0.375.
• Trade idea: Buy the retest (pullback) rather than chase the current upper-band tag. Optimal entry ~0.381 with a 24h take-profit around 0.408.

1. Data digestion and context

• Current price: 0.388753.
• Daily context (Oct 23–Nov 4, Nov 7): Distribution shifted from 0.55–0.60 down to a capitulation low zone around 0.337–0.353 (Nov 3–4). Today (Nov 7) shows a sharp intraday recovery to 0.388–0.389, reclaiming multiple intraday resistances.
• Intraday (hourly Nov 6 22:00 to Nov 7 21:58): A steady grind higher after early weakness, culminating in a strong afternoon momentum burst with volume expansion (notably 16:00–18:00, 17:00–18:00 peak volumes).

2. Trend analysis (multi-timeframe)

• Daily trend: Still down on higher timeframe (price below 10-day SMA), but basing since Nov 3–4 with a higher low structure intraday. This is the early stage of a potential trend reversal. • 10-day SMA (approx from last 10 valid closes): ~0.4246. Price (0.3888) below SMA -> higher-timeframe bias still negative/neutral.
• Hourly trend: Clearly up. • 20-hour SMA (computed from last 20 closes): ~0.3590. Price ~8% above -> strong short-term uptrend, stretched. • Structure: Series of higher highs/lows since ~11:00–12:00 UTC; break of prior supply at ~0.360, 0.367, then 0.381–0.385.

3. Momentum and oscillators

• Hourly RSI(14): ~82.5 (overbought). This favors a near-term pullback/mean reversion before further upside.
• Daily RSI: Likely mid- to high-30s/low-40s (given the multi-day downtrend and only one strong up day). This leaves room for upside if the intraday pullback resets hourly momentum without breaking structure.
• Stochastic (1H): Implicitly elevated given the persistent climb; risk of a bearish cross on any dip.
• MACD (Daily): Likely still negative but curling upward (bullish histogram improvement). On 1H, MACD is positive and extended; a flattening is likely before next leg.

4. Volatility and Bollinger Bands

• 1H Bollinger Bands (basis ~20-SMA ~0.359): Price is kissing/just above the upper band (~0.387±). This is a textbook spot to expect a fade/pause and retest of breakout supports (0.385/0.381) before trend continuation.
• Daily ATR (visual): Contracting versus the late-October selloff; today’s intraday range ~0.3398–0.3898 (~0.050), indicating an expansion day that can be followed by a digestion day.

5. Volume/flow and market microstructure

• Volume expansion on the breakout hours (16:00–18:00) confirms demand; subsequent candles (19:00–21:00) show smaller real bodies with sustained closes near highs — constructive, not blow-off.
• OBV (qualitative): Turning up. Accumulation suggests dips likely get bought near first support zones.
• VWAP (today, rough): Concentrated volume around 0.36–0.38; estimated VWAP ~0.37–0.374. Current price above VWAP = strength, but increases pullback risk toward VWAP/anchored regions.

6. Support and resistance mapping

• Immediate resistance: 0.389–0.395 (we’re there), then 0.402–0.405 (Nov 2 pivot/close region), next 0.412 (50% retrace of 10/31–11/4 downswing), and 0.442–0.445.
• Immediate support: 0.385, then 0.381 (breakout retest), 0.375–0.372 (prior consolidation), 0.360–0.367 (prior breakout shelf), 0.353–0.355.

7. Fibonacci confluence (two swings)

• Swing A: 10/31 high 0.4880 to 11/4 low 0.3370 (Δ=0.1510) • 23.6%: 0.3726 (cleared and likely to act as support on dip) • 38.2%: 0.3947 (exactly near current resistance; explains the stall) • 50%: 0.4125 (reasonable 24h target in an extension scenario) • 61.8%: 0.4317 (stretch target beyond 24h base case)
• Swing B: Larger 10/24 high ~0.6129 to 11/4 low 0.3370 (Δ=0.2759) • 23.6%: 0.4021 (aligns with 0.402–0.405 daily pivot) • 38.2%: 0.4424 (aspirational if momentum persists beyond 24h) Confluence: 0.394–0.402 is a key supply zone; 0.372–0.381 is a high-probability demand zone.

8. Ichimoku (intraday qualitative)

• Tenkan (9) ≈ (H9+L9)/2 ≈ (0.3898+0.3419)/2 ≈ 0.3659.
• Kijun (26) ≈ mid of ~0.369–0.340 ≈ 0.3545.
• Price (0.389) > Tenkan > Kijun; bullish alignment with a likely thin future cloud. Note: distance above Tenkan suggests mean-reversion risk to ~0.37–0.38.

9. Elliott wave framing (1H)

• From the 11/7 morning lows (~0.343–0.347), we can label: Wave 1 to ~0.354, Wave 2 to ~0.345, Wave 3 to ~0.381, Wave 4 flat ~0.382, Wave 5 to ~0.389. If correct, an ABC corrective dip toward 0.378–0.381 (A/B/C) is likely before any attempt at 0.395/0.402.

10. Pattern recognition

• Ascending structure with a breakout above 0.381–0.385. We’re now in the “throwback” risk zone where price often retests the breakout neckline (0.381–0.385) before continuation.
• No obvious topping pattern on 1H; candles show controlled consolidation near highs rather than a blow-off.

11. Probability-weighted path (24h)

• Base case (60%): Pullback to 0.381±0.003, hold above 0.378; then grind to 0.402–0.408. Catalysts: dip-buying at breakout retest, momentum resumption after RSI reset.
• Bear case (30%): Deeper retrace to 0.372–0.375 (23.6% fib/old range VAH), possibly wick to 0.369–0.370; recovery into 0.395 cap. Catalyst: overbought oscillators + supply at 0.394–0.402.
• Bull extension (10%): Immediate squeeze through 0.395 -> 0.405–0.412 without full retest; would require fresh volume spike and strong breadth.

12. Risk management and trade construction

• Rationale to avoid chasing: Hourly RSI ~82.5 and upper-band tag increase mean-reversion odds. Buying the retest typically improves expectancy.
• Entry zone: 0.379–0.383 (prior breakout shelf; micro support at 0.385, stronger at 0.381). Optimal single-price: 0.381.
• 24h take-profit zone: 0.405–0.412 (fib 23.6% from larger swing and 50% from the 10/31–11/4 swing). Optimal single-price TP: 0.408–0.409 (front-runs 0.412 cluster). I set 0.4085.
• (Not required but prudent) Invalidation/stop idea: Below 0.369–0.372 breakdown (beneath value area and broken trend support) would negate the setup near-term.

13. Cross-checks

• MA posture cross-check: Price > 20h SMA, > 50h proxy (not computed but clearly above) = bullish short-term; price < 10d SMA = larger trend still recovering; this favors “buy dips, sell rips” within a bottoming process.
• VWAP cross-check: Buying near/just above the day’s VWAP band (~0.37–0.374) would be ideal; our proposed 0.381 is a compromise acknowledging strong momentum/support at 0.381.
• Liquidity/sweep behavior: A small sweep above 0.388–0.389 already occurred; a liquidity grab followed by dip to 0.381 is consistent with market microstructure.

Conclusion and call

• Direction: Buy on dip. Momentum is constructive with volume confirmation, but immediate overbought suggests a better entry on a pullback to ~0.381. Into the next 24 hours, expect a test of 0.402–0.408 after a retest of the breakout zone. Decision: Buy. Open at 0.381; target 0.4085 within 24h, acknowledging resistance at 0.395 and 0.402–0.405 along the way.