Breakout-Pullback-Reload: Positioning for Meteora’s Next Leg Toward 0.456

Comprehensive multi-timeframe technical analysis for Meteora (MET38353) over the next 24 hours

1. Market regime and context

• Primary trend (daily): Downtrend from late October (series of lower highs and lower lows) with a recent bounce from the 0.34–0.36 base. Price is now attempting a short-term trend reversal. Current price 0.4233 remains marginally below the 20-day baseline but has reclaimed short MAs, suggesting a transitional phase from bearish to neutral-bullish.
• Intraday regime (hourly, Nov 11): Impulse up from ~0.3997 to 0.4580 (18:00), followed by a pullback to ~0.423. That sequence establishes a higher high and a higher low structure on the hourly. Volume spiked on the breakout hour (18:00), confirming real demand, then price reverted to test support zones.
• Liquidity and behavior: Noticeable volume expansion on thrusts higher (e.g., the 18:00 candle) versus lighter volume pullbacks—constructive for continuation if supports hold.

2. Price action structure

• Daily swing map
  • Swing high cluster: 0.474–0.498 (Oct 30–31) and 0.481–0.485 (Oct 29) overhead supply.
  • Intermediate resistance: 0.431–0.436 (confluence: intraday HVN, pivot R2, and hourly supply flip). Then 0.445–0.452 and the recent spike high 0.458.
  • Supports: 0.414–0.416 (Fib 38.2% retrace of the 0.345→0.458 leg), 0.401–0.405 (50% retrace and yesterday’s intraday high area), then 0.388–0.392 (61.8% retrace/cluster) and structural floor 0.352–0.365 (triple-bottom region).
• Intraday sequence (Nov 11): Steady climb through the morning, breakout to 0.458 at 18:00 on strong volume, rejection wick indicates supply above 0.455, then pullback into the 0.423 region near intraday VWAP/20-EMA zone. This looks like a classic breakout-pullback setup with shallow retracement so far.

3. Moving averages and trend filters

• Simple MAs (daily closes)
  • SMA(5) ≈ 0.369 (pre-today) rising toward ~0.383 when including today’s print.
  • SMA(10) ≈ 0.377.
  • SMA(20) ≈ 0.434. Interpretation: Price 0.423 is above 5 and 10-day MAs but still slightly below the 20-day. A short-term bullish cross (5 over 10) is forming, an early trend reversal signal. A reclaim of the 20-day (~0.434) would confirm more robust upside.
• Hourly MAs (est.): Price retreated to around the 20-EMA/21-EMA band (~0.418–0.421) and is holding above the 50-EMA on the hour, supportive of continuation if that band holds on dips.

4. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) daily: Estimated ~34.4 as of Nov 10; including today’s advance lifts it towards the low-to-mid 40s. That is a shift from bearish to neutral, with room to run before overbought.
• RSI(14) hourly: After peaking on the breakout, it cooled to the 45–55 zone on pullback—classic consolidation behavior in an emerging uptrend.
• Stochastic (hourly): Likely reset to midline after overbought at the 18:00 spike; can support another push higher if price holds 0.414–0.421 support.
• Takeaway: Momentum is improving from oversold daily conditions; intraday momentum cooled without collapsing—bullish tilt.

5. MACD and trend momentum

• Daily MACD: Still below zero but histogram is contracting towards positive. This inflection is typical at the early stage of a trend reversal.
• Hourly MACD: Crossed bullish earlier in the session and remains constructive despite the pullback; histogram decreased during the retrace but stayed positive, indicating a corrective pause rather than a reversal.

6. Volatility and ranges (ATR/Bands)

• Daily ATR(14): Roughly ~0.045–0.055 based on recent daily ranges; call it ~0.05. With current 0.423, a 24-hour swing of ±0.025–0.03 is common, but impulsive conditions can touch ±0.04–0.05.
• Bollinger Bands (daily, 20,2): Mid-band near the 20SMA ~0.434; upper band ~0.53, lower ~0.34 by rough estimate. Price sits just below the mid-band—room to expand up before confronting band resistance.

7. Ichimoku (daily, heuristic due to outlier high)

• Tenkan (9-period mid of H/L) approximates near 0.418. Price above Tenkan: short-term supportive.
• Kijun (26-period mid of H/L) skewed higher by the Oct 23 outlier high; practically sits well above price, signaling that while long-term trend is still bearish, short-term mean-reversion is underway.
• Cloud: Price remains below cloud; reversal is in progress but not confirmed on this system until further strength.

8. Volume analytics and OBV

• Volume spiked strongly on the 18:00 breakout candle (largest intraday bar of the day). That suggests genuine interest above 0.43.
• Pullback volume is lighter relative to breakout—bullish. OBV on intraday would show a higher high; daily OBV likely put in a higher low compared to early November—confirmation of accumulation.

9. Fibonacci mapping (swing 0.345 → 0.458)

• Range = 0.113.
• Key retracements: 23.6% at ~0.4313, 38.2% at ~0.4148, 50% at ~0.4015, 61.8% at ~0.3881.
• Current 0.423 lies between 23.6% and 38.2%. A shallow-to-moderate pullback that holds above ~0.415 is typically bullish for another leg up. A deeper pullback (≤0.401) risks re-testing the base.

10. Classic pivot levels (derived from 11/10 H/L/C: 0.402/0.352/0.391)

• Pivot P ≈ 0.3817; R1 ≈ 0.4114; R2 ≈ 0.4317; R3 ≈ 0.4817.
• Today’s high 0.458 printed between R2 and R3; price now between R1 and R2. Reclaiming and holding above R2 (~0.432) would re-open the path to test 0.45–0.46.

11. Pattern diagnostics

• Breakout–pullback–continuation setup: Price broke above the 0.431–0.435 lid, tagged 0.458, then pulled back below that band. If price reclaims 0.432–0.435 on rising volume, expect the continuation attempt toward 0.45–0.46.
• Higher low formation: Lows progressed from 0.352 → 0.392 → 0.414–0.421 zone intraday, indicating buyers stepping up.
• Candlesticks: The 18:00 hour printed a long upper shadow (rejection near 0.458), but no follow-through liquidation—subsequent prices stabilized above 0.42. That’s typical for consolidation after the first thrust of a new move.

12. Elliott wave framing (heuristic)

• Wave 1: 0.352 → ~0.401 (+0.049)
• Wave 2: Pullback to ~0.392
• Wave 3: Expansion to ~0.458 (+0.066)
• Wave 4: Current pullback to ~0.423 (shallow 23.6–38.2%)
• Wave 5 potential: Target extension ~0.470–0.490 if momentum reignites; conservative intraday aim 0.452–0.458 in the next 24h.

13. Statistical/mean-reversion read

• Intraday VWAP proximity: Current price sits near/just above session VWAP band after the spike—a constructive location for risk-defined entries.
• Expectation: Mean-reversion early (0.414–0.431 range) followed by a directional test higher into 0.445–0.458 if buyers defend the 0.414–0.416 shelf.

14. Confluence map (levels that matter now)

• Key support confluence: 0.414–0.416 (Fib 38.2%, hourly EMA band, prior rotation lows), then 0.401–0.405 (Fib 50% + prior resistance).
• Key resistance confluence: 0.431–0.435 (Pivot R2/HVN), 0.445–0.452 (intraday supply), 0.458 (session high/rejection point).

15. What could go wrong (bearish risks)

• Failure to hold 0.414–0.416 would likely press price to 0.401–0.405; a decisive break below 0.401 opens 0.388–0.392 (61.8%), and losing that brings the 0.352–0.365 base back into play.
• Macro/flow risk: Liquidity pockets are thin in this price zone; wick-throughs can be sharp. Manage entries with limits and allow for spread.

16. 24-hour outlook and probability

• Base case (bullish continuation, 62%): Early consolidation 0.414–0.431, reclaim of 0.432–0.435 with volume, then push into 0.445–0.458; likely intraday high 0.452–0.460, low 0.412–0.418.
• Alt case (pullback first, 28%): Dip tests 0.414–0.416 quickly, even 0.405–0.408 tag, then buyers step in and price grinds back toward 0.44–0.45.
• Bear case (10%): Clean break below 0.401 leads to 0.388–0.392; in that case, bounce attempts likely capped below 0.414–0.416 near-term.

17. Trade plan synthesis

• Bias: Buy the dip into 0.414–0.416 zone where multiple supports converge.
• Trigger options:
  • Limit buy near 0.416 (just above 38.2% Fib and hourly EMA band) to maximize reward-to-risk.
  • Confirmation alternative (if no dip): Reclaim and 30–60 min hold above 0.435; however, that would reduce R:R from current levels.
• Target: First target 0.456 (just shy of the 0.458 supply/rejection point) within next 24 hours. Stretch target beyond 24h could be 0.470–0.474 if momentum accelerates, but base case TP kept conservative.
• Risk framing (informational): A logical protective line would be below 0.401 (50% Fib and prior resistance turned support). That yields an attractive R:R if entering ~0.416 and targeting 0.456. Note: only TP provided in the order details per the request.

Conclusion: The balance of evidence (SMA crossover, improving momentum, shallow Fib retrace held, breakout volume pattern, higher-low structure) supports a Buy-the-dip strategy with a target back to the 0.455–0.458 supply. Expect a choppy open to the session but a constructive close if 0.414–0.416 holds.