Meteora Price Analysis Powered by AI

Meteora’s Momentum Reset: 50% Fib Backtest Sets Up a Fresh Push Toward 0.515

Comprehensive multi-timeframe view (Daily + Hourly)

Daily structure: After a multi-week decline from the 0.55–0.60 area into a capitulation low cluster around 0.35 (11-03 to 11-06), price has carved out a higher-low sequence and reclaimed key moving averages. Closes: 11-03 0.3587 → 11-11 0.4336 → 11-12 0.4679, indicating a constructive shift from distribution to accumulation.
Hourly structure (last 24h): A strong morning expansion into 0.5615 was faded, followed by a pullback that stabilized above 0.465–0.470 support. The session printed a swing high (0.5615), a lower high (~0.541/0.551), then a wash into 0.467–0.476 and a minor bounce failure. Net: a bull move with a deep retracement to a Fibonacci support cluster, typical for a breakout backtest day.

5-day SMA ≈ 0.4020 (current 0.4679 > SMA5)
10-day SMA ≈ 0.3825 (current > SMA10)
20-day SMA ≈ 0.4295 (current > SMA20) Interpretation: Price reclaiming above the 20-day baseline after a trend transition is a bullish early-cycle signal. Short- and medium-term slopes are turning up; pullbacks toward 0.46–0.43 are buyable while above the 20-SMA.

Daily: Momentum has shifted from oversold to neutral-bullish after a +30% rebound off the 0.35–0.36 base. With price above the 20-SMA and rising 5/10-SMAs, daily momentum likely sits mid-50s to low-60s (not overbought), leaving room for further upside.
Hourly: Intraday surge to 0.5615 then a retrace toward 0.467 suggests hourly RSI cooled into the low-to-mid 40s, often a buy-the-dip zone when the daily trend is turning up. MACD-style impulse followed by a reset aligns with a potential second push within 24h if 0.465–0.470 holds.

Daily volatility expanded materially today (H-L ≈ 0.135), after weeks of compression. Price is now above the mid-band (≈ 20-SMA at 0.4295), sitting between the mid- and upper-band. Post-expansion pullbacks to the mid/upper-band zone often precede continuation. Today’s deep retrace looks like a volatility reset rather than a trend failure, provided 0.44–0.46 holds.

Daily volume surged on 11-11 and remained elevated on 11-12—classic signs of accumulation and trend change. On-Balance-Volume style read would be rising given higher closes vs early-Nov lows. Intraday distribution on the fade from 0.56 was present, but buyers defended 0.465–0.470 repeatedly.

Swing: 0.3587 → 0.5615 (range ≈ 0.2028)
Key retracements:
- 38.2% ≈ 0.4836
- 50% ≈ 0.4601
- 61.8% ≈ 0.4362 Current 0.4679 sits just above the 50% retracement and near a visible support shelf—prime mean-reversion buy zone in an emerging uptrend. Below, 0.436–0.444 is the golden-pocket-to-structural support confluence.

Immediate support: 0.465–0.470 (hourly lows, 50% Fib confluence), then 0.444–0.448 (daily closes 10-31/11-01), then 0.436 (61.8% Fib) and 0.404–0.405 (11-02 pivot).
Resistance overhead: 0.483–0.485 (38.2% Fib/overhead supply), 0.498–0.503 (hourly supply shelf), 0.515–0.541 (intraday pivot band), 0.555–0.561 (today’s high zone), then 0.58–0.60 (late-Oct resistance).

Breakout-backtest: The move above 0.48–0.50 followed by a retrace to 0.465–0.470 resembles a breakout backtest rather than a breakdown, because it halted around the 50% Fib and above the 20-SMA.
Intraday micro H&S completed into 0.467 and did not extend beyond 0.465; failure to accelerate lower suggests absorption at support.
Potential bull flag on hourly: The steep impulse to 0.561 and a downward-sloping consolidation toward 0.47 often resolves higher if base support holds.

Given the expansion day, price likely sits at/above the turning line with the base line below, a constructive alignment. Cloud penetration and a potential future bullish TK-cross are consistent with early trend reversal. A reclaim of ~0.49–0.50 would likely flip near-term Ichimoku momentum back to positive.

Using 11-12 H/L/C (≈ 0.5615/0.4261/0.4679):
- Pivot P ≈ 0.485
- R1 ≈ 0.544
- S1 ≈ 0.409
- R2 ≈ 0.621 These align with key areas: P near 0.485 supply, R1 near 0.54–0.55 resistance band, and S1 deep into the prior base (unlikely unless a risk-off shock hits).

Recent daily ranges run ~0.05–0.13, implying intraday swings of 10–25%. That supports a tactical approach: buy near 0.462–0.470 with targets into 0.50–0.52 over 24h, while respecting a stop below 0.452 (beneath support and below the 50% Fib) to avoid a slide toward 0.444/0.436 if the level fails.

Wave 1: 0.359 → ~0.515, Wave 2: pullback to ~0.465, Wave 3: extension to ~0.561, Wave 4: ABC into ~0.467, positioning for a Wave 5 attempt toward 0.555–0.58 if 0.465–0.470 holds and 0.503/0.515 break.

Base case (bullish continuation): Hold 0.465–0.470, reclaim 0.485 pivot, rotate into 0.498–0.503, then probe 0.515. Probability: moderate.
Stretch: Momentum carry to 0.54–0.56 if 0.515 clears on volume. Probability: lower but credible given prior range expansion.
Bear risk: Lose 0.465 → test 0.452–0.456; if that fails, 0.444–0.436 golden pocket. Probability: modest unless market-wide risk-off.

Synthesis and trade plan

Confluence of factors—20-day SMA reclaim, 50% Fibonacci backtest, persistent higher lows, and heavy accumulation volume—support a tactical long. The optimal entry is a buy-the-dip at/just above 0.465–0.468. A first objective is the pivot/shelf at 0.515, which also aligns with recent intraday congestion; further extension could reach 0.54–0.56, but 0.515 is a high-probability 24h target.
Suggested risk anchor (not part of the required fields): a protective stop under 0.452 to invalidate the thesis near-term, keeping R:R ≥ 2:1 versus a 0.515 target from a ~0.466 entry.

24-hour price prediction

Likely trajectory: Consolidation 0.465–0.475 early, then a push toward 0.495–0.515. Volatility remains elevated; wicks below 0.465 are possible but should be short-lived if the trend transition is genuine.