Meteora poised for a VWAP reversion and 0.50 retest: buying the 0.458 dip

Step 1 — Price action and market structure (multi-timeframe)

• Daily trend: The sequence from 2025-10-23 to 2025-11-14 shows a strong down leg into early November (lows 0.337–0.358), followed by a sharp V-shaped recovery peaking intraday at 0.5628 on Nov 12, then a corrective pullback to the 0.42 area on Nov 13 and a recovery to 0.4625 into the Nov 14 close. That produces: lower lows into Nov 4, then a bullish structure shift with higher highs (Nov 12 vs. Oct 31 high) and a higher low potentially forming around 0.444–0.456 on Nov 14. Structure is transitioning from bearish to neutral-bullish.
• Intraday (hourly, Nov 14): Price rallied hard in early hours from ~0.415 to ~0.476 (06:00), extended to ~0.50 (10:00–11:00), then pulled back into NY afternoon, rejecting ~0.504 (16:00 high) and closing near 0.4625. The intraday print shows supply overhead near 0.500–0.504 and demand reappearing 0.444–0.456.
• Key levels (derived from daily and hourly swings):
  • Resistance: 0.475–0.476 (local shelf), 0.489–0.490, 0.500–0.504 (intraday high cluster), 0.522 (Nov 13 R), 0.5628 (Nov 12 swing high).
  • Support: 0.456 (hourly pivot/Kijun area), 0.450, 0.444–0.445 (intraday demand and multi-touch support), 0.433, 0.422 (Nov 13 close zone), 0.404–0.405, 0.391.
• Tape character: Strong participation spike since Nov 12–14 with large volumes vs. prior days, indicating institutional activity. The 0.50–0.504 area was offered aggressively; the 0.444–0.456 band is defended repeatedly.

Step 2 — Moving averages (trend filters and crossovers)

• 5D SMA ≈ 0.4343; 10D SMA ≈ 0.3993; 20D SMA ≈ 0.4194.
  • Current price 0.4625 is above 5D, 10D, and 20D SMAs. Short-term momentum bullish; price has reclaimed the 20D, signaling potential trend transition.
  • Slope: 5D > 20D > 10D suggests recent acceleration with medium-term still recovering. A short-term bullish crossover stack supports a long bias.
• Expectation: As long as price holds above the 20D (~0.419), pullbacks are buyable. A daily close back below 0.419 would negate the nascent uptrend.

Step 3 — Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14): Estimated ~52.3 (neutral-to-bullish). RSI climbed from oversold in early Nov, cooled on Nov 13, and stabilized Nov 14. No overbought stress; room to run.
• Hourly Stoch (approx 14): Using last 14h range (H ≈ 0.504, L ≈ 0.431), current %K ≈ 43%. Neutral, supports the notion of a potential bounce from mid-range.
• MACD (daily, directional read): With price above 20D and recent upside burst into Nov 12, MACD likely positive or crossing up recently; histogram probably narrowed on Nov 13 pullback and re-expanding modestly after Nov 14 recovery. Bias: slightly bullish.
• ADX (daily, qualitative): Trend strength likely rising from sub-20 toward low/mid-20s after the Nov 12 range expansion. Indicates emerging trend, not yet mature.

Step 4 — Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14D) qualitative: Large ranges Nov 12–13 (0.13 range days) inflate ATR; earlier days were tighter. Reasonable 24h expected move from 0.462 ~ ±0.06–0.08, implying 0.40–0.54 probable band. Practical near-term range: 0.44–0.50 with tails.
• Bollinger Bands 20,2 (rough): Middle ≈ 0.419; upper ≈ 0.539; lower ≈ 0.299. Current 0.462 sits between mid and upper band, far from overbought. Space to test 0.48–0.50 without band pressure.

Step 5 — Volume, flows, and VWAP

• Volume surge: Nov 12–14 volumes (252M, 240M, 328M) dwarf prior readings, suggesting a regime change. Heavy interest near 0.45–0.49 today signals acceptance; 0.50–0.504 remains supply.
• OBV/Accumulation (qualitative): Up impulse into Nov 12 lifted OBV; Nov 13 gave back but Nov 14 reclaimed a portion. Net improvement vs. early Nov.
• CMF/MFI (qualitative): Mixed but leaning positive as strong up-hours carried higher volumes; late-day pullback was on lighter volume than the morning thrust. Slight accumulation bias.
• Day VWAP (Nov 14): Approx in the 0.472–0.475 region. Closing at 0.462 is below VWAP, indicating late-session discount relative to the day’s average. This often invites mean-reversion toward VWAP early next session if support holds.

Step 6 — Fibonacci mapping (swing calibration)

• Swing low (Nov 9–10 region) to swing high (Nov 12): Using L ≈ 0.345–0.352 and H ≈ 0.5628, key retracements:
  • 38.2% ≈ 0.480
  • 50% ≈ 0.454
  • 61.8% ≈ 0.429
• Price action: Pullback found buyers near 61.8% (0.428–0.433) and reclaimed the 50% (0.454). Currently below 38.2% (0.480), implying a tactical magnet to 0.48–0.49 if buyers press.
• Extensions (near-term): If 0.504 breaks, 1.272 ≈ 0.534 and 1.618 ≈ 0.583 become medium targets. In the next 24h, 0.49–0.50 is the more realistic test zone.

Step 7 — Ichimoku (hourly read)

• Tenkan (9): Approx (HH+LL)/2 of last 9h ≈ (0.504 + 0.445)/2 ≈ 0.4745.
• Kijun (26): Given earlier lows near 0.431 and highs around 0.50, Kijun likely sits somewhere in high 0.46s to low 0.47s. Price (0.4625) is slightly below Tenkan and flirting with Kijun. This often precedes a mean-reversion push to Tenkan/Kijun, i.e., 0.468–0.475, provided support holds.
• Cloud (qualitative): After the early thrust, price likely entered/hovered around the cloud; with a reclaim of 0.47+, the path reopens toward 0.49–0.50.

Step 8 — Pivots (classic) for next session

• Using Nov 14 H ≈ 0.5040, L ≈ 0.4138, C ≈ 0.4625:
  • Pivot P ≈ (H+L+C)/3 ≈ 0.4601
  • R1 ≈ 0.5064; S1 ≈ 0.4162
  • R2 ≈ 0.5503; S2 ≈ 0.3699
• Interpretation: Price is marginally above P at 0.4625, favoring an initial lean toward a test of P→R1 path if 0.456–0.460 holds. R1 is very close to the known supply shelf at 0.504, reinforcing that region as primary upside objective/resistance in the next 24h.

Step 9 — Donchian channels and breakout context

• 20D Donchian: Upper ≈ 0.5628 (Nov 12), lower ≈ 0.3375 (Nov 4). Current is mid-channel with upward pressure. A mid-channel traverse typically targets the upper-middle area first (0.48–0.50) before attempting upper-channel.

Step 10 — Pattern recognition

• Potential inverse H&S baseline retest: Left shoulder (late Oct/early Nov lows around 0.40), head at 0.337–0.353 (Nov 3–4), right shoulder around 0.352–0.365 (Nov 8–9), neckline zone 0.42–0.43. Nov 10–12 breakout, Nov 13 retest into 0.422, and Nov 14 bounce fits a classic retest/continuation script. Targets usually project toward the 0.50–0.52 region first.
• Candles: Nov 13 was a large-range indecision/negative close; Nov 14’s strong green recovery printing above the 20D is constructive. Intraday rejection of 0.504 shows where the sellers are stacked.

Step 11 — Mean reversion vs. trend continuation framework

• With price < daily VWAP but > 20D SMA and above the 50% retracement, the next 24h likely sees:
  • Scenario A (60%): Early dip to 0.456–0.458 fills, then mean reversion push to 0.472–0.475 (VWAP/tenkan) and an extension probe toward 0.488–0.498. Rejection likely at 0.500–0.504 on first test.
  • Scenario B (30%): Deeper flush toward 0.444–0.445 to test demand; if absorbed, a later-day bounce toward 0.47 area. This path is choppier but still net constructive.
  • Scenario C (10%): Failure below 0.444 triggers a momentum slide back to 0.433/0.422 and possibly 0.405 if the market de-risks. Low probability unless external shock.

Step 12 — Risk, reward, and execution planning

• Long thesis rests on: reclaimed 20D, RSI ~52, short-term MA stack bullish, 50–61.8% Fib retrace reclaim, strong demand band 0.444–0.456, and pivot P ≈ 0.460 acting as a fulcrum. Day VWAP above spot favors a reversion bid if support holds.
• Optimal entry: A limit buy around 0.458 (into minor support/Kijun/pivot zone) balances fill probability and risk.
• Profit target: 0.498 (just below 0.50/0.504 supply and R1), capturing the likely first resistance test.
• Implied stop (not required by schema but prudent): 0.444 (below the defended demand and undercutting recent lows). Risk ≈ 0.014 per unit; reward ≈ 0.040, R:R ≈ 2.8:1.

Step 13 — Probability-weighted price path (next 24 hours)

• Base case: 0.456–0.458 early, then 0.472–0.475 VWAP/tenkan test, then 0.488–0.498 into resistance. Intraday wick into 0.500 possible but expect rejection on first attempt.
• Range expectation: 0.444–0.498 (with outlier wicks 0.439–0.504). Close bias: 0.475–0.490 if bulls control the session; otherwise 0.458–0.468 if range-bound.

Synthesis and conclusion

• Confluence of reclaimed medium-term trend, healthy but not stretched momentum, supportive Fib structure, and clear demand shelf argues for a Buy-the-dip approach. Overhead supply at 0.50–0.504 should cap first attempts; thus, a tactical target just beneath that zone optimizes exit odds. Failure below 0.444 would negate the setup.