Meteora poised for a 61.8% rebound: Buying the 0.420 pivot for a push toward 0.45

Executive summary (24h outlook)

• Bias: Moderately bullish within a broader range. Expect a grind higher toward 0.437–0.452 if 0.419–0.421 support holds. Breakdown risk below 0.406 leads to 0.388–0.392.
• Optimal plan: Buy pullbacks into 0.420 ±0.002 (61.8% retracement + daily pivot zone) and target a push into R1/R2 at 0.437–0.451.
• Key invalidation: Hourly close below 0.406 (S1) or a daily push below 0.402 (intraday swing low) flips bias to short.

Full step-by-step analysis

1. Market structure and price action

• Higher time frame (daily): From 10/23 high (intraday 0.900) the trend descended into an 11/03–11/05 base around 0.332–0.359. A sharp impulse ran to 0.5628 on 11/12, followed by a three-day pullback. Price now sits at 0.4236, roughly mid-range of the 10/28–11/16 distribution, and just above the 20-D SMA.
• Near-term structure (last 10–12 sessions): Sequence: base (0.35) → breakout (to 0.56) → retrace into 0.40–0.42 demand. The pullback has respected a higher low vs. 11/13’s 0.393, suggesting buyers are defending above ~0.40.
• Intraday (hourly on 11/16): Low at 0.4027 (16:00), then higher lows into 0.423–0.425. Price is compressing under 0.425–0.427, forming a modest ascending triangle. A clean hourly break/hold over 0.426–0.427 opens 0.433–0.437, then 0.447–0.452.

2. Key levels confluence

• Fibonacci retracement of the 11/05 low 0.3324 to 11/12 high 0.5628 (range 0.2304): • 38.2%: 0.4739 • 50%: 0.4476 • 61.8%: 0.4202 Current price 0.4236 is just above the 61.8% level (0.4202), a classic buy-the-dip area if trend resumes.
• Daily pivot levels based on 11/16 (H≈0.4335, L≈0.4018, C≈0.4236): • P = 0.4196 (sits within the 61.8% fib cluster) • R1 = 0.4374 • R2 = 0.4513 • S1 = 0.4057 • S2 = 0.3879 The 24h plan aligns with long above P toward R1/R2.
• Prior swing reactions: • Support: 0.401–0.406 (intraday low + S1), 0.420–0.421 (fib 61.8 + pivot P) • Resistance: 0.433–0.437 (hourly supply + R1), 0.447–0.452 (50% fib + R2), 0.462–0.474 (11/12 close and 38.2% fib)

3. Moving averages and trend filters

• 5-D SMA ≈ 0.4396; 10-D SMA ≈ 0.4123; 20-D SMA ≈ 0.4130. • Price 0.4236 < 5-D (near-term softness) but > 10-D and > 20-D (medium-term constructive). Typical mean-revert setup: short-term pullback within an improving intermediate trend.
• EMA posture (approximate): EMA(12) slightly above EMA(26) after the 11/11–11/12 surge, with narrowing spread as price consolidated. That implies MACD is positive but fading—consistent with consolidation prior to the next directional move.

4. Momentum and oscillators

• RSI(14) daily (estimated) ≈ 60.2. Interpretation: bullish momentum overall but cooling; room to oscillate higher before overbought. The last three sessions’ red candles pulled RSI off highs without breaking the bullish regime.
• Stochastic (14): %K ≈ 40% with room to turn up from mid-lows; supportive of a bounce if price holds 0.419–0.421.
• MACD (daily): Positive line with a flattening histogram; a push above 0.426–0.430 on expanding volume likely re-widens the histogram positive.

5. Volatility and ranges

• Daily ATR(14) rough ≈ 0.050–0.060. Within 24h, a 0.03–0.05 swing is common given recent action. That places R1/R2 at 0.437/0.451 within reach from 0.420–0.424 entries.
• Bollinger Bands(20,2): Midline ≈ 0.413 (20-SMA). Estimated lower ~0.337, upper ~0.489 given recent dispersion. Price slightly above midline, allowing upside room before hitting band resistance.

6. Volume analytics

• Daily volume spikes: 11/12 (252.7M up), 11/13 (240.6M down), 11/14 (328.2M up) showed heavy two-way participation. Subsequent declines saw lower volume (11/15–11/16), hinting that sellers are losing pressure into support.
• OBV implication: Large up-volume days roughly offset large down-volume day; net OBV remains elevated vs. early November, consistent with accumulation attempts during pullbacks.
• Intraday VWAP (11/16): Price reclaimed and held above session VWAP (~0.419–0.421), a positive micro-bias as long as it remains above.

7. Ichimoku

• Tenkan (9) ≈ (0.5628 high + 0.3451 low)/2 ≈ 0.454; price below Tenkan = short-term corrective.
• Kijun (26) skewed by the 0.900 high; likely well above current price, keeping a conservative bearish bias on classical Ichimoku.
• Cloud context: With Tenkan above price and price above 20-D SMA, this reads as pullback-within-recovery; a Tenkan recapture (≈0.454) is the trigger for a larger leg up beyond the 24h horizon.

8. Pivots and market profile synthesis

• Next 24h’s P=0.4196 aligns with fib 61.8% at 0.4202, creating a strong magnet/support. R1=0.4374 matches intraday supply shelf; R2=0.4513 coincides with 50% retracement 0.4476. This multi-tool confluence reinforces a buy-the-dip strategy into 0.420.

9. Pattern recognition

• Hourly ascending triangle under 0.426–0.427 (horizontal cap) with rising lows from 0.4027 → 0.411 → 0.418+. Measured move on breakout: add ~0.010–0.012 to 0.426 → 0.436–0.438 initial, then extension into 0.447–0.452 if momentum carries.
• Bullish divergence potential (hourly): The 16:00 low at 0.4027 likely printed with a higher RSI vs. earlier 0.405–0.409 lows, indicative of waning downside pressure.

10. Elliott wave framing (heuristic)

• Wave 1: 0.332 → 0.563. Wave 2: retrace toward 0.40–0.42 (61.8%). If correct, a developing wave 3 should attempt 0.45–0.47 first, then 0.50+ later. For the next 24h, the subwave projection aligns with R1/R2 objectives.

11. Risk management and scenarios (24h)

• Base case (60%): Hold 0.419–0.421, break 0.426–0.427, test 0.437 (R1), extend to 0.447–0.451 (R2/50% fib). Close near 0.447–0.451.
• Neutral (25%): Chop between 0.416–0.436 around P/VWAP, closing near 0.425–0.432.
• Bear case (15%): Lose 0.419 then 0.406 (S1). If 0.406 fails, swift tag of 0.388–0.392 (S2 zone). This invalidates the long setup for the session.
• Suggested protective stop (not part of order schema): 0.399–0.402 (below 11/16 swing and beneath S1) to limit downside if support fails.

12. Synthesis and decision

• Multiple-tool confluence (fib 61.8 + daily pivot P + VWAP reclaim + hourly ascending structure + RSI in bullish regime) supports a tactical long on a pullback around 0.420.
• Targets fit within ATR and pivot projections (R1/R2). Risk/reward improves markedly by entering closer to 0.420 rather than chasing above 0.425.

Price prediction (next 24h)

• Expected range: 0.416–0.451 with upward bias; most-likely path: dip to 0.420±0.002, break to 0.437, extension spike into 0.447–0.451 before consolidating.