Meteora poised for a Fib 50→61.8% drive: Buy the dip toward $0.451, aim for a $0.483 test

Instrument: Meteora (MET38353) Timestamp of last print: 2025-11-17 05:06 UTC Spot: $0.4538606

Executive overview

• Bias next 24h: Moderately bullish continuation with a buy-the-dip profile. Baseline path: shallow pullback toward $0.448–0.451, then rotation higher to test $0.462–0.468; if broken, extension toward $0.477–0.485.
• Key levels: Support $0.446, $0.442–0.445, $0.432–0.435; Resistance $0.462–0.465, $0.477–0.485, $0.504–0.522.
• Trade idea (24h): Buy pullback. Open $0.4510 (limit), target $0.4829.

1. Price structure and trend diagnostics

• Daily trend: After the late-Oct drawdown from ~0.55 to ~0.44 (10/27), price based in the 0.35–0.41 zone (11/02–11/06) and staged a recovery into 11/12 (intraday high 0.5628) before retracing to 0.4225 (11/13). Since then, higher lows have formed (0.4310 on 11/15, 0.4344 close on 11/16) with today’s intraday push to 0.454, indicating constructive short-term momentum.
• Intraday (hourly 11/16–11/17): Price stair-stepped from ~0.4316 to 0.4539 with a clean sequence of higher highs and higher lows (notably 03:00–04:00 UTC expansion), suggesting continuation buyers are active.
• Market regime: Transitioning from range to mild uptrend; price is back above short and intermediate moving averages (see below), and trading in the upper half of the 20-day Bollinger envelope.

2. Moving averages (momentum confirmation)

• SMA(5) ≈ 0.4417; SMA(10) ≈ 0.4134; SMA(20) ≈ 0.4136. Spot (0.4539) > all three. Bullish short-term alignment with 5 > 10 ~ 20 and positive slope on 5-day; 10/20-day flattening-to-rising.
• Implication: Momentum skew is up; mean-reversion risk exists but with support below ~0.446/0.435.

3. RSI, Stochastics, MACD

• RSI(14) (close-to-close est.): ~54. Neutral-to-bullish, ample room to run before overbought; suggests trend continuation over immediate reversal.
• Stochastics (qualitative): Mid-to-upper range but not pinned; supports a pullback-then-continue scenario rather than an immediate fade.
• MACD (qualitative read over dataset): MACD line crossed above signal around the 11/10–11/12 upswing; histogram likely modestly positive and flattening after the 11/13 retrace. This typically precedes another attempt higher if price holds above short MAs.

4. Bollinger Bands and volatility

• BB(20) mid ~0.4136. Estimated σ ~0.038 (from recent dispersion). Upper band ≈ 0.4136 + 2σ ≈ 0.489; lower ≈ 0.337. Spot at 0.454 is in the upper half but not extended (distance to upper band ~7–8%). Room for a push into 0.47–0.48 without band breach.
• Volatility/ATR(14) (est.): ~0.047. A 1x ATR swing projects a plausible 24h range of ~0.407–0.501 from current if skewed. Realistic symmetric range for next session given compression: ~$0.444–$0.482 baseline, with tail risk to ~$0.432 on the downside and ~$0.489 on the upside.

5. Volume, OBV, and VWAP context

• Volume regime: Massive participation 11/12–11/14 (252–328M), indicating a high-liquidity value area built between ~0.42–0.46. Subsequent days saw normalization (100–110M) with price holding higher lows—constructive.
• OBV (qualitative): Post-surge, OBV likely consolidated sideways-to-up as price held above ~0.43; no evidence of heavy distribution in the last two days.
• Anchored VWAP from 11/12 surge (approx.): ~$0.455–0.460. Spot just below/near this zone; regaining and holding above anchored VWAP would typically catalyze a test of 0.462–0.468, then 0.477–0.485.

6. Support/resistance and pivots

• Historical S/R from closes and wicks: • Support: 0.446 (pivot-derived), 0.442–0.445 (late-Oct/early-Nov congestion), 0.432–0.435 (Fib 38.2% of 0.3525→0.5628; recent closes 11/15–11/16), 0.401–0.405 (Fib 23.6% / value shelf). • Resistance: 0.462–0.465 (prior close cluster; micro shelf), 0.477–0.485 (prevalent supply and Fib 61.8% ≈ 0.4833), 0.504–0.522 (swing highs 11/14–11/13), then 0.55–0.56 and legacy 0.60–0.62.
• Classic daily floor pivots using 11/16 (H=0.435739, L=0.401797, C=0.434382): • Pivot (P) ≈ 0.42397; R1 ≈ 0.44615; R2 ≈ 0.45792; R3 ≈ 0.48009; S1 ≈ 0.41221; S2 ≈ 0.39003; S3 ≈ 0.37827.
• Interpretation: Price is riding between R1 and R2, with R2 ~0.458 lining up near the 50% Fib and supply overhead. R3 ~0.480 aligns with the 0.477–0.485 resistance block—ideal take-profit magnet in a bullish session.

7. Fibonacci and harmonic context

• Swing low 11/06: 0.3525; swing high (intraday) 11/12: 0.5628. Key retracement levels: • 23.6% ≈ 0.4021 (matches strong support ~0.401–0.405) • 38.2% ≈ 0.4328 (recent basing area 11/15–11/16) • 50% ≈ 0.4576 (just above current; near R2) • 61.8% ≈ 0.4833 (overhead resistance cluster)
• Harmonic element: The 11/13 drop to 0.4225 was a ~61.8% retrace of the 11/10–11/12 spike leg, then price reclaimed the 38.2% area—typical of a valid continuation leg toward the 61.8% extension of the pullback, placing 0.478–0.485 as the next magnet.

8. Ichimoku (approximate)

• Tenkan (9) ≈ midpoint of 9-period high/low; with high ≈ 0.5628 and low ≈ 0.3451, Tenkan ~ (0.5628+0.3451)/2 ≈ 0.4540—spot is essentially kissing Tenkan from below/at, which often precedes bullish continuation if closed above decisively.
• Kijun (26) skewed high due to the 10/23 outlier high ~0.90, so cloud remains above price, indicating broader downtrend context; however, in short-term timing, Tenkan recapture is the actionable signal.
• Chikou: Likely below historical candles due to the earlier large spike; strengthens the view that this is a tactical long within a still-recovering broader trend.

9. Candlestick and pattern read

• 11/15–11/16: Small-bodied higher close candles after the 11/13 shakeout—classic absorption near 0.43–0.44. Today’s intraday impulse shows initiative buying.
• Structural pattern: A potential double-bottom/accumulation base around 0.352–0.365 (11/03–11/09) with a successful breakout into 11/12; the 11/13 throwback held above 0.402/0.423 Fib bands—healthy retest. The current series of higher lows constitutes a nascent uptrend leg targeting the 0.477–0.485 supply zone.

10. Regression channel and mean-reversion lens

• Short-term linear regression (last ~20 sessions): Slope mildly positive; spot is above the regression mean but not at the channel extreme. Expect 1/4 to 1/2 sigma pullbacks to be bought; a dip toward ~0.448–0.451 is optimal risk-adjusted location.

11. Risk metrics and scenario pathing (24h)

• Baseline expectation (55–60%): Shallow dip to 0.448–0.451 followed by push through 0.462–0.465, probing 0.475–0.482. Close near highs if breadth holds.
• Bullish extension (25–30%): Strong break over 0.465 early, swift tag of 0.477–0.485; stretch risk to ~0.489 (upper band proximity) if momentum and participation re-accelerate.
• Bearish alternate (15–20%): Failure at 0.462, rotation back under 0.446; tests 0.442–0.445 and possibly 0.432–0.435. A daily close <0.432 would damage the setup and re-open 0.418/0.405.

12. Confluence summary

• Price > SMA(5/10/20), RSI ~54, MACD marginally positive, anchored VWAP (11/12) just above spot, Tenkan ≈ spot, pivots show R2 at 0.458 and R3 at 0.480 aligning with Fib 50%/61.8% and historical supply. Volume profile points to a high-participation value area in 0.42–0.46 now acting as a base. Together, these support a tactical long with a tight pullback entry and an initial target just below 0.483.

13. Trade construction (24h tactical)

• Direction: Long (Buy-the-dip bias).
• Entry: $0.4510 limit (slightly below spot, aligned with minor intraday retrace and above R1 pivot 0.446 to avoid missing the move). Alternative/add-on: breakout stop at $0.466 if momentum accelerates (not required for single-price spec).
• Target/TP: $0.4829 (front-run 0.483–0.485 Fib/offer block and R3 proximity 0.480–0.481). This optimizes fill probability while respecting known liquidity.
• (Not required but prudent) Protective stop: ~$0.4390 (below mid-support 0.442–0.445 and above the 0.432 shelf to acknowledge whipsaw risk), yielding approx R:R ~ 2:1 versus TP.

Forecast conclusion (next 24h)

• Expect a marginal pullback to the $0.448–$0.451 zone, then a push toward $0.462–$0.468. If 0.468 gives way, momentum likely carries to $0.477–$0.485. The path of least resistance is up while 0.446/0.435 supports hold. Hence, prefer Buy with a dip entry and a take-profit just ahead of 0.483.