Meteora coils above the neckline: Bull stack points to a $0.50 test within 24 hours

Note: This is an analytical opinion for educational purposes, not financial advice.

Executive overview (24h): Meteora (MET38353) printed a higher low on Nov 17–18 and is now trading at $0.4539, above its 5/10/20-day moving averages with improving momentum and expanding volume. The tape suggests a continuation push into the $0.47–$0.51 resistance stack within the next 24 hours, provided $0.44–$0.446 holds on dips.

1. Price action and market structure

• Higher lows: Nov 5 close 0.3678 → Nov 9 0.3524 (minor) → Nov 17 0.4034. The Nov 16–17 retest around 0.434–0.403 acted as a successful pullback into support, followed by strong demand on Nov 18.
• Resistance ladder above: 0.462–0.466 (23.6% Fib and R1 pivot), 0.476–0.481 (prior supply), 0.504–0.522 (swing-high supply). Current price sits just beneath the first shelf, favoring a momentum continuation if reclaimed.
• Inverse head-and-shoulders (IHS) context: Left shoulder (Nov 3–4), head (Nov 5 low ~0.332), right shoulder (Nov 9). Neckline ~0.433–0.436 was broken Nov 11–12, then cleanly retested Nov 16. Pattern has largely met its first measured move (~0.534), but the successful neckline retest and hold often precedes another attempt toward intermediate resistances (0.50–0.52).

2. Trend and moving averages

• 5/10/20 SMAs: SMA5 ~0.429, SMA10 ~0.421, SMA20 ~0.408. Price at 0.454 > all three; bullish “5>10>20” stack suggests an emerging uptrend.
• Short-term EMA posture (proxy): EMA9 ≈ 0.425–0.43, EMA21 ≈ 0.41–0.415. Price above both indicates positive momentum and dip-buying interest likely near 0.446–0.448 and 0.433–0.436.

3. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) estimate ≈ 57–60 (rising, below overbought). This is a classic “RSI range shift” from bear (20–50) to bull (40–80). It implies room to run before 70–75 overbought readings.
• Stochastic: %K likely rising through mid/high-60s with a recent bullish cross above %D, consistent with a near-term continuation push.
• MACD (12/26/9): Histogram likely turning back up as price reclaims fast MAs after the neckline retest. Signal-line cross risk is reduced while price holds above ~0.44.

4. Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid-band ≈ 0.408 (SMA20). Price riding above mid-band with room toward the upper band (~0.49–0.50 given recent dispersion). A “band walk” attempt is possible if 0.466 breaks cleanly.
• ATR(14) estimate: ~0.06–0.07. A 1x ATR move from 0.454 projects 0.388–0.520 for the day; 0.50 is within a routine volatility envelope.

5. Fibonacci mapping (Oct 23 high to Nov 5 low)

• Range: High 0.9002 → Low 0.3324 (Δ ≈ 0.5678). Key retracements from low:
  • 23.6% ≈ 0.4664 (nearby resistance)
  • 38.2% ≈ 0.5493
  • 50% ≈ 0.6163
  • 61.8% ≈ 0.6832 Current price is just below the 23.6% level; a close above ~0.466 would open 0.476 then the 0.50–0.52 pocket before 0.549.

6. Classical pivots (based on Nov 18 H/L/C: 0.4763/0.3894/0.4191)

• Pivot P ≈ 0.4283; R1 ≈ 0.4671; R2 ≈ 0.5151; R3 ≈ 0.5540; S1 ≈ 0.3802.
• Confluence: R1 (0.467) aligns with Fib 23.6% (0.466). R2 (0.515) aligns with the top of the next resistance block. This adds confidence to a 0.50–0.515 near-term objective.

7. Volume, OBV, and money flow

• Volume expansion: Massive activity Nov 12–14 and Nov 18 (346M) indicates institutional-grade participation. The Nov 18 wide-range day with heavy volume, yet a net up-close vs prior day, suggests “stopping volume” and accumulation under 0.47–0.48.
• OBV behavior: Likely net rising since Nov 10–12 given outsized up-day volumes (Nov 12 +252M, Nov 14 +328M, Nov 18 +347M) outweighing down-day subtractions. Rising OBV under resistance hints at an imminent push through nearby supply.
• CMF/MFI (qualitative): With closes frequently in the upper half of daily ranges on big volume, flow skews constructive.

8. Wyckoff lens

• Phase: Post-selloff accumulation between ~0.35–0.44; sign of strength (SoS) Nov 11–12; last week’s pullback looks like a “back-up” (BU) to the neckline around 0.433–0.436. Current lift is an expected continuation in a re-accumulation range targeting prior supply at 0.50–0.52.

9. Ichimoku (daily approximation)

• Price likely above Tenkan and Kijun after the recent bounce; cloud thickness from the big selloff remains, but a bullish TK posture favors upside probes as long as price stays above the Kijun pivot (~0.43–0.44 zone). A sustained hold above 0.466 would raise odds of a bullish Kumo interaction ahead.

10. Candlestick context

• Nov 18: Wide-range, high-volume candle with long lower shadow relative to prior range—consistent with demand absorption. Today’s trade above 0.45 confirms follow-through buying. No obvious exhaustion wick yet under 0.47.

11. Elliott wave framing (tentative)

• A-B-C down into Nov 5 low (~0.332). Wave 1 up into Nov 12 (~0.563) followed by Wave 2 corrective pullback into Nov 16–17 (~0.403–0.434). Current move likely the early stages of Wave 3/minor iii aiming at 0.50–0.52 short term.

12. Liquidity, supply/demand and levels to watch

• Demand zones: 0.44–0.446 (intraday dip-bid), 0.433–0.436 (neckline retest shelf), 0.419–0.421 (pivot P area).
• Supply zones: 0.462–0.466 (R1+Fib 23.6), 0.476–0.481 (prior highs), 0.504–0.522 (swing supply), 0.549 (Fib 38.2) if momentum exceeds expectations.

13. Scenario map for the next 24 hours

• Base case (60%): Early dip toward 0.448 ± 0.002, buyers defend, breakout above 0.466, probe 0.476, and tag 0.50–0.505. Consolidation likely under 0.515.
• Bull extension (25%): Strong momentum sweep through 0.476 leading to 0.515 (R2). A spike to 0.522 is possible if volume remains outsized.
• Bear risk (15%): Rejection at 0.466–0.476, fade back to 0.433–0.436. A daily close below 0.419 would undermine the setup and delay upside for several sessions.

14. Risk management thoughts

• Invalidation zone for the long thesis sits under 0.419–0.421 (below pivot P and mid-band), with a deeper structural invalidation under 0.433–0.436 neckline on a high-volume close. For trade planning, a protective stop would typically sit in the 0.428–0.433 corridor; however, only entry and take-profit are specified here.

Conclusion: Multiple, independent signals align bullishly—5/10/20 SMA stack, RSI range shift, OBV expansion, neckline retest and hold, pivot/Fib confluence at 0.466 offering a nearby trigger. Expect a continuation attempt into 0.50–0.505 over the next 24 hours, with optimal entry on a shallow dip into 0.446–0.448 or a momentum break above 0.466. Chosen plan favors a limit buy just below spot to capture a better risk/reward while still being realistic for a fill.