Meteora’s Gap-and-Go Setup: Bulls Eye the 0.47–0.48 Supply Wall

Market context and immediate setup

• Symbol: Meteora (MET38353); Currency: $. Current price: 0.45386 (as of 2025-11-20). Last recorded daily close (2025-11-19): 0.37229. Today’s price implies a strong gap-up of ~21.9%, signaling a short-term momentum shift after a multi-week corrective phase.
• Recent path: Large volatility since late Oct: sharp drop from the Oct 23 spike (intraday high ~0.90) into an early-Nov low cluster (~0.347–0.353), then a mid-Nov rebound peaking 0.5628 (Nov 12), followed by a pullback to 0.3723 (Nov 19). Today’s gap reclaims the 0.44–0.45 “volume shelf.”

Price structure, trend and key levels

• Primary supports: • 0.434–0.435 (Nov 16 close; shelf from repeated touches) • 0.43099 (Nov 15 close); 0.41907 (Nov 18 close) • 0.403–0.4046 (Nov 2, Nov 17 closes; 20SMA proximity) • 0.372–0.373 (Nov 19 close) and the structural floor 0.347–0.353 (Nov 4–6/19 lows)
• Overhead resistances: • 0.458–0.462 (cluster of Nov 11/12/14; prior closes and short-term neckline) • 0.476–0.485 (Oct 29 high 0.48545; Oct 30/Nov 18 highs; near Bollinger upper band) • 0.493–0.505 (Nov 15/14 highs), then 0.522 and 0.5628 (Nov 12 swing high)
• Chart patterns: • Triple-bottom/accumulation zone near 0.347–0.353 with a more recent “spring” into 0.3476 (Nov 19 low) and immediate reclaim suggests Wyckoff-style spring + test. • A W-reversal emerging with a neckline in the 0.458–0.462 zone. A decisive daily close >0.462 would complete the pattern and often targets the 0.49–0.50 supply. • Today’s gap up over yesterday’s close builds a potential gap-and-go, but partial gap fills into 0.44–0.445 are common.

Moving averages and trend metrics

• 5-day SMA ≈ 0.4120; 10-day SMA ≈ 0.4228; 20-day SMA ≈ 0.4026. • Today’s price has reclaimed all three SMAs. The stack is not fully bullish (10SMA > 5SMA > 20SMA would be ideal), but price > all MAs is a constructive short-term trend signal.
• Mean reversion: Price is ~1.3–1.5 standard deviations above the 20SMA (est. 20-day sigma ~0.037), stretched but not overbought; room remains toward 0.47–0.48 without statistically extreme conditions.

Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14): Using closes through Nov 19, RSI ~52.7; with today’s +0.0816 gain, RSI likely lifts into ~58–62. This is bullish momentum without overbought risk.
• Stochastic (14): %K ≈ (Price - 14D low)/(14D range) = (0.4539-0.3476)/(0.5628-0.3476) ≈ 49%. Midline cross upward suggests fresh upside potential.
• MACD (estimate): The Nov 10–12 thrust turned MACD positive, then the pullback likely brought the signal toward flat. Today’s impulse should push a renewed bullish cross or expanding histogram, supporting follow-through.

Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) (approx): ~0.050–0.060. Implies an expected next-24h range of roughly ±0.05 around the magnet level, assuming no new macro shock. From 0.454, probabilistic range: 0.438–0.482 (base case), with tails to 0.434 (support sweep) or 0.485 (R3/upper-band tag).

Bands and envelopes

• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid ~0.403; upper estimated ~0.476–0.48; lower ~0.33. Price is approaching but still beneath the upper band, leaving capacity to tag 0.476–0.48 if momentum persists.

Fibonacci mapping (Nov 12 high to Nov 19 low)

• Swing high: 0.562756; swing low: 0.372286; range: 0.19047. • 23.6%: 0.41697 (reclaimed) • 38.2%: 0.44505 (currently respected as intraday dip zone) • 50%: 0.46753 (first major fib resistance) • 61.8%: 0.49007 (confluent with supply just below 0.50)
• With price wedged between 38.2% and 50%, the next “natural” magnet is ~0.468; an extension could probe 0.49.

Pivots (Classic, from Nov 19 H/L/C: 0.41991/0.34761/0.37229)

• Pivot P ≈ 0.37994, R1 ≈ 0.41226, R2 ≈ 0.45224, R3 ≈ 0.48457.
• Price leaped above R2 early; R3 ~0.4846 aligns with the 0.485 supply and Bollinger upper band tail. Textbook pivot behavior suggests resistance into 0.48–0.485 on first test.

Volume, OBV, and profile

• Volume spikes Nov 12–14 and Nov 18 hint at a major distribution/absorption zone between 0.45 and 0.50. Expect sell liquidity near 0.462 and thicker supply 0.476–0.485.
• OBV through the last two weeks appears broadly sideways with swings on high-volume up days offset by down-day distribution—i.e., no strong bearish divergence; today’s up move likely nudges OBV higher.
• Volume shelf: 0.42–0.46 is an acceptance area. Reclaiming this band favors continuation to test the upper bound of the recent value area (~0.48–0.49).

Ichimoku (approx)

• Conversion line (9-period) ≈ (9H+9L)/2 ≈ (0.5628+0.3476)/2 ≈ 0.4552, essentially at current price. A push above 0.455–0.462 would signal momentum resumption. Kijun (26-period) likely lags near mid-0.45s; a cross above both lines is typically bullish for the next 1–3 sessions.

Wyckoff/Elliott/structure

• Wyckoff: Spring on Nov 19 into the 0.347–0.353 floor, immediate AR today into 0.45+, likely testing the neckline at 0.458–0.462. Sign of strength (SOS) would be a clean push/hold above 0.462. Failure there risks a pullback to 0.434–0.440 for a last test.
• Elliott (tactical): A down A-wave from Nov 12 to Nov 19, now a B-wave retracement aiming 0.467–0.490 (50–61.8% of the drop). C-wave risk later, but within 24 hours the B-wave can extend into first supply.

Liquidity/stop maps and gap logic

• There is fresh stop liquidity above 0.462 (neckline) and above 0.476 (prior swing). These zones often act as magnets intraday, especially after a gap.
• Gap tendency: After a 20% gap, partial retracement toward 38.2%–50% of the gap is common. Gap from 0.3723 to 0.4539 is ~0.0816; a 38.2% fill is ~0.423 (too deep for today’s context), but structural support sits higher at 0.44–0.445. Expect buyers to defend 0.444–0.448 on dips.

Confluence summary

• Bullish inputs: Price > 5/10/20 SMAs; RSI mid-50s rising; MACD inflection positive; reclaim of 0.44–0.45 shelf; Wyckoff spring; Fib roadmap targets 0.468–0.490; pivot R3 ~0.485 aligns with upper band.
• Cautionary inputs: Dense supply at 0.462 and 0.476–0.485; 10SMA still above 5SMA; gap risk of intraday dip toward 0.444–0.446; ATR implies swings can be sharp.

Next 24 hours – probabilistic path

• Base case (55%): Dip-buy behavior into 0.444–0.448, then push to 0.468–0.476, with spikes toward 0.482 possible. Close somewhere 0.458–0.474 depending on supply absorption.
• Bullish extension (25%): Clean break >0.462 early, run of stops to 0.476–0.485 (pivot R3/upper band), brief rejection, then consolidation above 0.462.
• Bearish fade (20%): Rejection near 0.458–0.462 and deeper fill to 0.434–0.440. As long as 0.430 holds, bigger structure remains constructive; loss of 0.430 risks retest of 0.403–0.404.

Trade plan and execution detail

• Bias: Buy dips into the reclaimed value shelf. The best risk-adjusted entry is a limit on a shallow pullback that tests 38.2% fib of the swing (0.445) and the shelf at 0.446–0.448.
• Entry (limit): 0.4460 (just inside the dip zone to increase fill probability).
• Take profit: 0.4785 (just below 0.48 and within the 0.476–0.485 supply/pivot R3 cluster to front-run sellers).
• Optional protective stop (not required but prudent): 0.4338 (below the 0.434 shelf and undercut of dip buyers). That yields roughly +0.0325 upside vs -0.0122 downside, R:R ≈ 2.7:1.
• Invalidation: A decisive break and hourly close below 0.433 weakens the long thesis and opens risk to 0.419/0.404; conversely, a strong impulse and hold above 0.462 early increases odds of a momentum continuation toward 0.476–0.485.

Bottom line

• Momentum and structure favor a tactical long targeting the 0.47–0.48 supply band over the next 24 hours. Ideal entry is a controlled pullback toward 0.446; first target sits just under 0.48, where multiple resistances converge.