Meteora at the ledge: Sell the pop into 0.323–0.328 as the bear flag matures

Executive summary and market context

• Instrument: Meteora (MET38353), quoted in USD
• Current price: 0.31654 as of 2025-11-21 21:57 UTC
• Horizon: Next 24 hours, with execution on intraday levels
• Core view: Primary trend remains bearish. Price broke the 0.329–0.330 daily support, printed a fresh intraday low near 0.2978, then bounced to mid-0.31s. Setup favors selling a retest of 0.323–0.328 resistance, targeting a move back toward 0.300–0.305. Risk of a short-lived mean-reversion pop persists, but structure and momentum still point down.

1. Multi-timeframe price structure

• Daily trend: A sequence of lower highs and lower lows from late October highs (~0.90 spike, closing regime 0.55) into mid-November, then a sharp mid-month rally failure. Recent closes: 0.4336 (Nov 11), 0.4621 (Nov 12 high impulse), 0.4225 (Nov 13), 0.4588 (Nov 14), 0.4310 (Nov 15), 0.4344 (Nov 16), 0.4034 (Nov 17), 0.4191 (Nov 18), 0.3723 (Nov 19), 0.3290 (Nov 20), 0.3165 (today). The breakdown below 0.329 turned prior support into resistance.
• Hourly structure (Nov 21): Intraday high 0.3317, clear rejection early afternoon at 0.3268, followed by lower highs 0.3249–0.321 and steady fades to 0.315–0.313, with a modest end-of-session uptick to 0.3165. Price action since the 0.3268 spike resembles a bear flag within a broader descending channel.
• Key levels
  • Supports: 0.311–0.313 (today’s S1 pivot band), 0.303–0.305 (intraday shelf), 0.297–0.298 (session low and round-number defense), then 0.288 extension zone.
  • Resistances: 0.323–0.328 (intraday supply; 14:00 high 0.3268), 0.333 (breakdown retest risk), 0.344 (23.6% retracement of 0.493→0.298 swing), 0.372 (38.2% of same swing).

2. Trend and moving averages

• Short-term moving averages
  • 5-day simple average ≈ 0.368 (very rough), highlighting an extended downside gap to current price.
  • 10-day simple average ≈ 0.405, well above current price; slope downward.
• Medium-term view: 20-day mean likely in the low 0.40s with a declining slope. Price trading far below 10–20 day means confirms a strong downtrend and a persistent undervaluation versus recent averages. Historically, such distance invites reflex rallies, but unless reclaimed, rallies are sold.
• Conclusion: Bearish trend intact; rallies to falling MAs are distribution opportunities. The distance below the 10–20 day averages warns of mean-reversion pops, hence preference to sell strength, not weakness.

3. Momentum oscillators

• RSI 14 daily (estimated): Low 30s (approx 31–35). Persistent downside pressure with minor intraday rebounds. This is weakly oversold but not extremely washed-out. The lack of bullish divergence on successive lower closes adds to downside risk.
• Stochastic daily: Likely sub-20 and curling, matching a small bounce risk but still in bearish territory.
• MACD (12,26,9): Negative with a flat-to-widening histogram over the last three sessions after the 0.329 break, indicating momentum remains bearish. No clear positive cross yet.
• Read-through: Momentum confirms trend. Slight oversold readings can fuel countertrend bounces into resistance, but momentum does not yet argue for a sustained reversal.

4. Volatility and ranges

• Daily ATR (rough 14-day): Approximately 0.050–0.060. Today’s intraday range 0.2978–0.3317 (~0.034) shows mild range compression after several wide-range down days. Compression near lows often precedes another expansion in the direction of the dominant trend unless a decisive reclaim of resistance occurs.
• Implication: Expect a 0.03–0.06 move over 24 hours, with skew to the downside given the structural break.

5. Bollinger Bands (20,2) approximation

• Basis near low 0.40s with downward slope. Price probed or pierced the lower band around the 0.30 handle intraday and is now hovering just above it. Typical behavior: brief reversion inside the bands, then trend continuation unless price can retake the mid-band. The mid-band is far overhead; thus, rallies likely stall beneath 0.344.

6. Ichimoku framework (daily, approximate)

• Price well below the cloud. Conversion line (Tenkan) below the base line (Kijun); both declining. Lagging span below price and below cloud. Full bearish stack. Any bounce toward the Tenkan/Kijun zone (likely 0.34–0.39 range) faces heavy supply.

7. Volume and money flow

• Volume spikes timestamped Nov 12–18 on down-sessions outweigh complementary up-volume. OBV trend is down, with no convincing bullish divergence on the most recent low. Today’s failed push to 0.3268 occurred on a localized volume pop, but follow-through faded as volume thinned, consistent with a bear flag rather than accumulation.
• Read-through: Distribution regime persists. Supply overwhelms demand on rallies.

8. Fibonacci mapping

• Swing A: 0.493 (Nov 15) to 0.2978 (Nov 21 intraday low)
  • 23.6%: ~0.344
  • 38.2%: ~0.372
  • 50%: ~0.395
  • 61.8%: ~0.418 Current price sits well below 23.6%. The first fib cap 0.344 aligns with prior congestion; expect resistance before that at 0.328–0.333.
• Extension on the latest micro swing: 0.372→0.2978, with a countertrend high at 0.3268. 1.272–1.618 extensions project 0.288–0.276 for a possible final flush if 0.297 breaks on momentum.

9. Market profile and VWAP context

• Intraday value emerged around 0.316–0.321. The push to 0.3268 rejected quickly back into value, suggesting responsive sellers above value and a balanced-to-bearish profile.
• Anchored VWAP from the Nov 12 impulse area sits far above current price (estimated mid 0.40s), confirming sustained overhead supply. Day VWAP today likely near 0.318–0.320; price currently just under, hinting intraday sellers have slight control.

10. Candlestick and pattern read

• Daily: A small real body near session lows following a breakdown day is characteristic of a bear flag pause. No bullish engulfings or hammer signatures at key support were printed today.
• Hourly: Lower highs post-0.3268 with overlapping candles; this is a rising wedge or flag tilt within a downtrend that typically resolves lower.

11. Classical pivots for the current session (based on Nov 20 H/L/C = 0.3840/0.3289/0.3290)

• Pivot P ≈ 0.347
• Resistance R1 ≈ 0.365
• Support S1 ≈ 0.311
• Price has oscillated around S1 and failed to reclaim P by a wide margin, consistent with a weak session. S1 acting as a magnet suggests further tests of 0.311, with risk of S2 proximity if 0.311 gives way.

12. Elliott wave sketch (heuristic)

• The decline from mid-November shows features of an impulsive wave 3 extension. Today’s bounce resembles a shallow wave 4 that did not violate key resistance, setting up a potential wave 5 push toward 0.295–0.288. This aligns with Fibonacci extension targets and the channel lower bound.

13. Risk framing and scenarios

• Base case (probability 60%): Retest 0.323–0.328 supply zone, fail, then drift or accelerate to 0.305–0.302, with a possible probe of 0.298 if momentum expands.
• Alternate bullish mean-reversion (probability 30%): Sustain above 0.328 and squeeze toward 0.333–0.344. Without a daily close over 0.344, the broader bear trend remains intact.
• Low probability squeeze (10%): Break and hold above 0.344 triggers a stronger retracement to 0.372; this would neutralize the short thesis near term.

14. Strategy synthesis and execution plan

• Edge source: Sell strength into a well-defined intraday resistance band that aligns with the breakdown retest while momentum and OBV remain bearish.
• Entry zone: 0.323–0.328. Optimal limit: 0.3245 to increase fill probability beneath the session’s 0.3268 high and below the 0.328 pivot shelf.
• Targeting: First target 0.305–0.302. This captures roughly 2.0–2.5 ATR-hours of movement and sits just above the high-conviction 0.297–0.298 support to avoid a potential bounce.
• Invalidation reference: Hourly close above 0.333, or a daily close above 0.344, would invalidate the near-term short bias. (Not an order; for analytical context.)

15. Why not buy here?

• Despite oversold oscillators, the failed reclaim of 0.329, the bearish stack across EMAs, and persistent distribution volume argue that bounces are for selling until 0.333–0.344 is decisively reclaimed. Risk-reward favors shorting pops rather than catching a knife near 0.316 with limited room before resistance.

24-hour price path projection

• Expect an early-session push toward 0.323–0.328, fading into 0.315–0.312, then continuation to 0.305–0.302. A momentum break of 0.297 opens 0.292–0.288, but the base plan takes profits just above the figure to capture the meat of the move while front-running support.

Decision

• Bias: Sell the bounce. Open a short via limit at 0.3245. Target 0.3020 over the next 24 hours.