Short the 0.300 Supply: Meteora’s Bear Rally Likely Fades Within 24 Hours

Executive Summary

• Bias next 24 hours: Mildly bearish-to-range with rallies likely capped at 0.296–0.302 and a higher probability of a re-test of 0.282–0.278.
• Plan: Sell the pop into 0.300 (38.2% retrace of today’s downswing), target 0.281.
• Key invalidation (for risk control): Sustained acceptance above 0.302–0.306 opens room to 0.313.

1. Market Regime and Structure (Multi‑Timeframe)

• Daily context (past month): Strong primary downtrend. Price peaked at 0.5628 (11/12), then lower highs/lows into the current 0.29 area. Multiple expansion days with heavy volume on down legs (11/12–11/14; 11/18; 11/21) confirm distribution.
• Recent daily sequence: 11/20 close 0.3290, 11/21 close 0.3194, 11/22 close 0.2970, 11/23 intraday low 0.278 and bounce to ~0.29. That’s a fresh lower low beneath the 11/22 low (0.29296), confirming bearish structure.
• Hourly structure (last 24h): Clear descending channel/flag. Series of lower highs: ~0.3019 (22:00), 0.3009 (12:00), 0.2987 (14:00), breakdown to 0.278 (17:00), then a reactive bounce to ~0.290. Overhead supply thickens 0.296–0.302.

2. Support/Resistance Mapping

• Immediate supports: 0.284–0.282 (intraday shelf), 0.279–0.278 (session low and liquidity sweep), then 0.272 (extension).
• Immediate resistances: 0.296–0.302 (intraday supply, prior mid-band and 38.2% fib), 0.306–0.313 (50–61.8% fib of the 0.335→0.278 leg and likely anchored VWAP cluster from the 11/12 impulse), 0.328–0.335 (prior daily pivot/resistance).

3. Momentum and Oscillators

• RSI (hourly, qualitative): Dipped into oversold during the 17:00 flush, then rebounded; currently mid-30s/low-40s region behavior. No decisive bullish reversal; only a mild bullish divergence (price lower low at 0.278 vs. momentum not making proportionally lower low). This typically supports a bounce to resistance, then continuation.
• RSI (daily, qualitative): Likely low-30s area after a month-long decline—oversold but not extreme capitulation. In downtrends, daily RSI can stay suppressed; rallies tend to fade at the 40–50 RSI zone, aligning with the 0.296–0.306 price band.
• Stochastics (hourly, qualitative): Fast stoch rebounded from oversold, approaching midline—typical of bear-market bounces. A cross down in the 40–60 zone at resistance would be a sell trigger.

4. Moving Averages

• Hourly EMAs: Price below the 20/50-EMA stack; 20-EMA near ~0.294–0.296, 50-EMA near ~0.298–0.300. The bearish EMA slope and overhead confluence coincide with resistance.
• Daily MAs: Price below 20/50-DMA by a wide margin (20-DMA likely in the low 0.40s). No sign of a bullish cross. MA slope down confirms trend.

5. MACD

• Hourly MACD: Negative, histogram contracting since the 17:00 low—this supports a relief bounce but not a trend change unless we close above 0.302–0.306 with expanding momentum.
• Daily MACD: Bearish and likely widening. Any hourly buy signal would be countertrend.

6. Volatility and Bands

• Bollinger Bands (hourly): Price tagged/lived near the lower band on the drive to 0.278, now mean-reverting toward the mid-band (~0.294–0.296). Upper band sits near 0.302. Typical bear-rally path is to mid/upper band then roll. This places the optimal short setup into 0.299–0.302.
• ATR (hourly est.): Last 24h high-to-low ~0.024; typical hourly swings ~0.004–0.006. A 0.300 short with a 0.309–0.311 risk and 0.281 target offers a favorable R:R within expected move envelopes.

7. Fibonacci and Measured Moves

• Intraday fibs (11/22 ~0.335 high → today 0.278 low):
  • 38.2%: ~0.300 (precise confluence with supply)
  • 50%: ~0.3065
  • 61.8%: ~0.313 Shorting the 38.2–50% zone in a downtrend is statistically favorable when other tools align.
• Extension: A measured move from 0.335→0.296 (~0.039) projected from 0.296 targets ~0.257; that’s beyond 24h, but underscores bearish background.

8. Ichimoku (hourly)

• Price below Kumo; Conversion (Tenkan) below Base (Kijun); future cloud bearish. Kijun likely near ~0.297–0.299. First true resistance is Kijun/Cloud base; rejection here is typical in downtrends.

9. Candles and Price Action Nuances

• 15:00–17:00 sequence: Heavy volume flush into 0.278 formed a long lower tail at 17:00 followed by a modest bounce. This smells like a liquidity sweep rather than a lasting reversal: no follow-through accumulation, and subsequent candles stalled under 0.290–0.292 before tentative pushes.
• The session shows a micro bear flag from 18:00–21:00, with lower-high structure intact.

10. Volume and Order Flow

• Rising sell volume on down legs (15:00, 17:00) and lighter volume on upswings suggest sellers still control. The 19:00 bounce showed decent volume but immediately met supply below 0.290–0.292.
• Volume nodes: 0.282–0.286 saw significant prints; 0.296–0.302 has repeated taps and rejections, implying a supply zone with limit orders.

11. VWAP/Anchored VWAP (qualitative)

• Session VWAP likely below the 0.296–0.300 band; price trading below VWAP signals intraday sellers in control. An anchored VWAP from the 11/12 high plausibly resides ~0.305–0.31, matching fib and MA resistance.

12. Pattern Synthesis

• Dominant pattern: Descending channel with a recent bear-flag consolidation under the mid-band and Kijun, following a liquidity sweep to 0.278. Classic play: short the mean-reversion into resistance.
• If the market accepts above 0.302 with momentum, scenario flips to a deeper retrace to 0.306–0.313 before reassessing.

13. Scenario Analysis (24h)

• Base Case (55%): Bounce stalls at 0.296–0.302; price rolls back to 0.284–0.281; a brief probe of 0.279–0.278 possible.
• Alternative Upside (30%): Acceptance above 0.302 triggers squeeze to 0.306–0.313 (50–61.8% retrace) before sellers reassert.
• Downside Extension (15%): Immediate failure from current ~0.290 retests 0.282–0.278 quickly and extends to 0.274–0.272 on momentum.

14. Risk Management and Execution

• Entry: Scale into a short between 0.299–0.302 with a core trigger at 0.300.
• Invalidation: A 30–60 minute hold above 0.306 or a strong hourly close >0.306 with rising volume. Hard stop typically 0.309–0.311 to cover upper-band/50% fib overshoot.
• Targeting: Primary TP 0.281 (front-run the 0.279–0.278 shelf). Secondary runner (if allowed) 0.276–0.274 on momentum.
• Position sizing: Right-size for a ~0.010–0.011 risk to 0.309–0.311 vs. ~0.019 potential to 0.281 for ~1.7–1.9R; better if entries fill closer to 0.302.

15. Why Not Long Here?

• While there’s a mild bullish divergence and an oversold bounce underway, the weight of evidence (trend, MAs, cloud, supply overhead, fib confluence) favors fading the bounce rather than buying it. Longs are higher probability on acceptance >0.306 with retests holding as support.

16. Time/Flow Considerations

• Weekend liquidity regime can exaggerate both squeezes and fades. Expect false breaks; stick to levels and confirmation (rejection wicks, failure to hold above 0.302, roll under 0.296 mid-band) for short triggers.

Bottom Line

• The confluence at 0.300 (38.2% fib, hourly EMA cluster, mid/upper band proximity, Kijun/VWAP resistance, repeated supply) is compelling for a low-risk short. Base-case path is a fade back toward 0.282–0.278 within 24 hours.

Trade Plan Summary

• Decision: Sell (Short)
• Entry: 0.300 (allow 0.299–0.302 scale)
• Take Profit: 0.281
• Invalidation guideline (not part of the order schema): 0.309–0.311 stop or hourly acceptance >0.306