Meteora poised for a VWAP-supported push toward the 0.333 Fibonacci gate

Overview and context

• Instrument: Meteora (MET38353), quoted in USD
• Current price: 0.30904436
• Data reviewed: Daily OHLCV from 2025-10-23 to 2025-11-24 and intraday hourly candles from 2025-11-23 22:00 to 2025-11-24 21:57
• Market regime: Primary downtrend on the daily timeframe, short-term bounce and emerging uptrend on the hourly timeframe

1. Multi-timeframe trend and structure

• Daily trend: Strong downtrend from ~0.60 (Oct 23) to a new local low ~0.284 (Nov 23). Today (Nov 24) is a green day closing near 0.309, suggesting a short-term relief rally from oversold conditions.
• Hourly trend: Clear shift to higher highs and higher lows since the 09:00–11:00 UTC window on Nov 24. Structure: 0.2828 low → impulsive push to 0.3167 → consolidation 0.308–0.315 (bullish continuation potential).
• Market structure notes: The 1H trend has flipped bullish so long as price holds above ~0.301–0.305. On the daily, the broader trend remains bearish until price regains 0.333–0.352.

2. Moving averages (MAs)

• Daily SMAs (estimates from closes):
  • 5D SMA ≈ 0.308 (price slightly above → short-term tailwind)
  • 10D SMA ≈ 0.360 (price well below → intermediate trend still down)
  • 20D SMA ≈ 0.40–0.42 (price far below → dominant downtrend)
• 1H MAs (visual inference from intraday behavior):
  • 20-EMA/SMA ≈ 0.304–0.306
  • 50-EMA/SMA ≈ 0.301–0.302
  • 200-EMA/SMA ≈ 0.296
  • Bullish alignment on 1H (price > 20 > 50 > 200) indicates near-term momentum tailwind and dip-buy potential toward 0.305–0.306.

3. Momentum indicators

• Daily RSI(14): Likely rebounding from oversold (sub-30) into the low/mid-30s following today’s up-move; suggests room for a further relief rally before hitting stronger resistance.
• Hourly RSI(14): Likely mid-50s to low-60s after the 0.284 → 0.316 run, consistent with consolidation just under the upper Bollinger Band and pointing to mild pullback capacity toward the 20-EMA (~0.305) before potential continuation.
• MACD:
  • Daily MACD: Negative but histogram likely contracting (less negative), a classic sign of waning bearish momentum and a setup for a short-term bounce.
  • 1H MACD: Positive and recently crossed up, flattening during consolidation; favors buy-the-dip within the up-sloping intraday regime.
• Stochastics (1H): Likely cycling down from overbought after the impulse leg, aligning with a shallow pullback expectation to the 20-EMA zone (0.304–0.306) before another attempt higher.

4. Volatility and ranges

• Daily ATR(14) (approximation): 0.040–0.060 over the last few weeks; a 24h swing of 8–15% is plausible in this name.
• Intraday realized range today: ~0.2828 to ~0.3167 (~0.034; ~12%), consistent with the ATR envelope. Expect a 24h envelope roughly within 0.296–0.333 under base-case conditions.

5. Bollinger Bands and Keltner context

• Daily BB: Price bounced from/just above the lower band and is moving inward. In strong downtrends, first touch and reversion to the mean (mid-band) often stalls early; still, mean-reversion impulses can carry price to the first overhead pivots (0.320–0.333).
• 1H BB: Midline ≈ 20MA around 0.304–0.306; upper band near 0.312–0.315. Price recently hugged the upper band during the impulse and is now drifting sideways-to-down toward the midline—a classic continuation setup if the pullback remains shallow.

6. Support and resistance (confluence map)

• Immediate supports:
  • 0.305–0.307: 1H 20MA cluster and intraday breakout retest zone
  • 0.300–0.301: Round-number, micro shelf, and near 1H 50MA
  • 0.296: 1H 200MA and prior session pivot
  • 0.282–0.284: Local base and the most recent swing low
• Overhead resistances:
  • 0.314–0.318: Intraday supply where the rally paused, minor liquidity pocket
  • 0.328–0.333: Prior daily pivot zone and Fibonacci 23.6% retracement from the Nov 15 swing high to the Nov 23 swing low
  • 0.352–0.368: Major daily supply and prior breakdown shelf

7. Fibonacci analysis

• Short swing: From ~0.493 (Nov 15 local high) to ~0.284 (Nov 23 low)
  • 23.6%: ~0.333 (first meaningful retracement cap) — strong near-term target/resistance
  • 38.2%: ~0.364 — would require stronger momentum than currently visible
  • Implication: Current bounce has not yet reclaimed 23.6% (~0.333). The path of least resistance intraday is a probe into 0.320–0.333, where supply likely increases.

8. VWAP and Anchored VWAP

• Session VWAP (1H window) appears near 0.304–0.306; price currently trades modestly above it, indicating buyers in control intraday.
• Anchored VWAP from the recent swing low (~0.284) sits near ~0.304–0.305; dips toward this zone provide statistically favorable risk/reward for continuation longs.

9. Volume, OBV, and participation

• Daily volume: Elevated during the down leg; the recent bounce has decent but not explosive volume — consistent with a relief move, not yet a full trend reversal.
• Intraday: Up-candles saw better participation earlier in the session; consolidation volumes contracting is constructive for another leg up.
• OBV (qualitative): Still trending down on the higher timeframe but flattening on the 1H, aligned with accumulation on dips.

10. Ichimoku (multi-timeframe)

• Daily: Price is below Kijun and well below the cloud (Kumo) — bearish higher timeframe regime; Tenkan likely below Kijun but flattening — early sign of momentum stabilization.
• 1H: Price above Tenkan and Kijun, with a thin forward cloud; Chikou likely clearing recent price; this favors a short-term continuation higher as long as the Kijun (~0.302–0.305) holds.

11. Pattern recognition

• 1H: Break of a minor descending trendline from the prior week; impulsive leg up followed by a tight bull flag/sideways consolidation. As long as pullbacks hold ~0.305, probability of a measured move toward 0.318–0.325, then 0.333 increases.
• Daily: Possible short-term bullish engulfing relative to the prior day’s small-bodied candle near lows; often a precursor to 1–3 sessions of relief strength.

12. Elliott/Wyckoff framing (auxiliary)

• Elliott (1H): Wave-1 impulse 0.284 → 0.316; wave-2 shallow consolidation 0.308–0.310; wave-3 objective aligns with 1.0–1.272 extensions into 0.325–0.333.
• Wyckoff: The 0.2828 print looks like a spring/shakeout in an emerging micro-accumulation range; current action resembles an automatic rally (AR) and secondary test (ST) — bullish if the ST holds above 0.301–0.305 and we see a sign of strength (SOS) through 0.318.

13. Statistical/mean-reversion lens

• With price modestly above the 1H VWAP and 20MA but below the daily 10/20 SMAs, the distribution favors a short-horizon mean reversion up to the nearest daily resistance (0.320–0.333), not a full trend reversal.

14. Scenarios for the next 24 hours

• Base case (55%): Buy-the-dip continuation. Price dips into 0.305–0.307, holds, rotates up through 0.314–0.318, and tags 0.328–0.333. Consolidation likely below 0.333.
• Bear case (35%): Failure at 0.314–0.318 and loss of 0.305 support leads to a VWAP break toward 0.300–0.301; deeper test to 0.296 possible if risk sentiment sours.
• Tail case (10%): Strong momentum squeeze above 0.333 triggers stops and extends toward 0.342–0.348; less likely given daily headwinds.

15. Trade plan and levels

• Bias: Cautiously bullish over the next 24 hours, looking to buy a controlled pullback to the 1H 20MA/VWAP area.
• Optimal entry (limit buy): 0.306 — sits at the confluence of 1H 20MA, session VWAP, and prior breakout retest zone.
• Primary target (take profit): 0.333 — aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and a prominent daily resistance shelf; expect supply here.
• Invalidation/stop (for risk management; informational): Below 0.299–0.300 (loss of 1H structure and VWAP); would reassess for a deeper mean-reversion to 0.296.
• Expected R:R (informational): Entry 0.306 to TP 0.333 = +0.027 (+8.8%); stop ~0.299 = -0.007 (-2.3%), R:R ≈ 3.9:1.

16. Why not short now?

• Shorting into 1H higher lows above VWAP and into a daily oversold bounce has unfavorable timing. The better short location would be a rejection at 0.333–0.352 with momentum rolling over, not the current mid-range consolidation.

Conclusion

• The higher timeframe trend is still down, but the 1H shows constructive basing and a controlled pullback setup. A dip-buy at 0.306 targeting 0.333 offers a strong short-term R:R within the next 24 hours, with 0.300 as tactical invalidation. This aligns with momentum, VWAP confluence, and the natural magnet of the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.