Meteora: Buy the dip into 0.338 as the relief rally targets 0.365 within 24 hours

Summary view (24h): Short-term momentum has turned up from deeply oversold daily conditions, with price reclaiming intraday higher-lows/higher-highs and riding above intraday VWAP. However, a heavy supply shelf sits at 0.345–0.353 and again 0.360–0.372. Base case is a continuation grind higher into resistance with intraday dips; invalidation on a decisive slip back below 0.333–0.329.

Step-by-step analysis

1. Market structure and trend

• Higher timeframe (daily): Clear primary downtrend from late Oct highs (~0.90 high/0.56 closes) to the 11/23 swing low at 0.278. Series of lower highs/lows remains intact. Current rebound is a countertrend rally within this broader downtrend.
• Intermediate (daily last 10 sessions): Capitulation style slide into 0.284 on 11/23, followed by a green reversal day on 11/24 and a follow-through push on 11/25 intraday to 0.3526 before a fade to 0.3407. Structure now shows a potential short-term base between 0.309–0.333 with a first lower-high test around 0.352–0.356.
• Intraday (hourly 11/25): A staircase of higher lows from ~0.309 → 0.317 → 0.324 → 0.331 → 0.333 → 0.335, then breakout attempt to 0.3526, rejected back to 0.3406. Bullish micro-trend intact as long as 0.333–0.335 holds.

2. Key levels (support/resistance)

• Supports: 0.336–0.338 (intraday VWAP/5–10h EMA zone), 0.333 (hourly shelf), 0.329 (11/20 close pivot), 0.321/0.318 (11/21 area), 0.309 (11/24 close), 0.297 and 0.284 (swing low cluster/11/23 low).
• Resistances: 0.345 (local cap), 0.3526 (today’s spike high), 0.355–0.365 (congestion), 0.372–0.380 (daily SMA20/BB mid), 0.387 (38.2% Fib of 0.5628→0.2781 downswing), 0.420 (50% Fib), 0.454 (61.8% Fib). Near-term gauntlet is 0.345→0.353→0.365.

3. Moving averages (daily)

• SMA5 ≈ 0.3076; SMA10 ≈ 0.3598; SMA20 ≈ 0.3794 (estimated from last 20 closes).
• Price 0.3407 is above SMA5 (supportive near-term), but still below SMA10 and SMA20 (countertrend rally status). A reversion to the 10–20 day means (0.36–0.38) is plausible if momentum persists; failure would pivot back into the 0.333/0.329 supports.

4. Momentum oscillators

• RSI14 (daily): ~39 on 11/24; with today’s advance, likely low-40s. Interpretation: recovering from oversold, below 50 but rising—consistent with a relief bounce that still has room before entering overbought territory.
• Stochastic (daily): Turning up out of oversold; signals a near-term push higher unless price loses 0.333 and momentum stalls.
• MACD (daily): Histogram likely less negative on today’s rally; signal-line cross not confirmed yet. This favors continued mean-reversion attempts but warns trend is not fully reversed.

5. Volatility and ranges

• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Center ~0.379, lower band estimated near ~0.28–0.29 after the recent selloff. 11/23 tagged the lower band; 11/24–25 is a walk back toward the mid-band. Typical relief rallies often gravitate toward the mid-band (SMA20) before choosing the next leg.
• ATR14 (est.): Roughly 0.035–0.050 based on recent daily swings. A 1×ATR move from current pricing implies 0.305–0.391 bounds; for 24h expectations, a 0.015–0.030 intraday envelope around current price is reasonable given the rebound and fresh supply overhead.

6. Volume, VWAP, and participation

• Daily volume: Expanding on the rebound day (11/24) and constructive participation intraday (11/25), indicating interest on up-moves—early-stage accumulation characteristics.
• Intraday VWAP (11/25): Estimated clustering around ~0.333–0.336 given most trading occurred 0.31–0.345, with heavier prints above 0.33. Last price 0.3407 is modestly above VWAP, confirming short-term buyer control. Pullbacks into VWAP should attract dip-buyers unless a broad risk-off move returns.

7. Fibonacci context (swing 11/12 high 0.5628 → 11/23 low 0.2781)

• 38.2%: ~0.387; 50%: ~0.420; 61.8%: ~0.454. Current price hasn’t reached the first retracement; statistically, many relief bounces at least probe 38.2% if sellers don’t immediately reassert. However, in the next 24h the more attainable waypoints are 0.352–0.365 and potentially the SMA20 zone on extension.

8. Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price below cloud; Tenkan likely turning up with a flat/soft Kijun above. Typical path: price rallies into Tenkan/Kijun resistance, often coincident with 0.352–0.372 band. A clean close above Kijun-like resistance would strengthen the case for a multi-day upswing.

9. ADX/DI (qualitative)

• Elevated ADX from the prior persistent downtrend; negative DI dominant but narrowing. This supports the view of a countertrend relief rally that can persist as shorts cover, but confirmation of a trend reversal is absent.

10. Candlestick/price action tells

• 11/23 printed a hammer-type reversal near the lower band; 11/24 posted a constructive green candle. 11/25 intraday produced an upper wick at 0.3526 (supply hit) but preserved higher lows into the close. This is typical of stepwise advances: breakout probe → supply → minor pullback → attempt again.

11. Pattern frameworks

• Wyckoff lens: Possible Phase C spring at 0.284 with AR toward 0.345–0.352. A successful back-up-to-the-creek (BUC) would be a controlled dip into ~0.336–0.338/VWAP that holds, then push through 0.352–0.355 toward 0.365–0.372.
• Channeling: Price rebounded off the lower bound of a descending channel; mid-channel likely aligns near ~0.36–0.37, consistent with our near-term target zone.

12. Mean reversion vs momentum blend

• Mean reversion: Below SMA10/20, statistically likely to retest these averages (0.36–0.38) if buyers remain engaged.
• Momentum: Hourly structure remains positive above 0.333; breakout continuation needs to clear 0.345 then 0.3526 with volume. Failure to do so likely retests VWAP/0.333.

13. 24-hour path scenarios

• Base case (55%): Dip toward 0.338–0.336 (VWAP/5–10h EMA zone), then attempt through 0.345; if 0.3526 breaks, extension to 0.360–0.365. Likely close in the 0.352–0.364 range.
• Bearish alt (25%): Early fade below 0.333 leads to 0.329 and possibly 0.321; strong buyers appear near 0.318–0.309. Would delay the bounce by 24–48h.
• Bullish alt (20%): Strong open drives straight through 0.3526; squeeze toward 0.368–0.372 (SMA20 vicinity) before consolidating.

14. Trade plan logic (tactical)

• Preference: Buy-the-dip into intraday value (0.336–0.338) where risk can be defined just under 0.329. Reward aim at first resistance shelf 0.360–0.365. R:R roughly 3:1 (risk ~0.009–0.010; reward ~0.024–0.027) if filled at 0.338.
• Confirmation add-on: Momentum add above 0.353 is valid for aggressive traders, aiming 0.365–0.372, but carry higher slippage risk.

Conclusion

• Bias: Short-term bullish (relief rally) within a larger downtrend. Expect an attempt to push 0.352–0.365 over the next 24 hours, provided 0.333 holds. Optimal entry is on a controlled dip to 0.338.

Risk note

• A decisive break and hourly close below 0.333 increases odds of testing 0.329/0.321 and would postpone the upside objective. Size positions accordingly.