Sell the 0.35 Wall: Fading Meteora’s Bounce Into Multi‑Layer Resistance

Market overview and context

• Instrument: Meteora MET38353 quoted in dollars
• Current price: 0.33855 as of 2025-11-26 21:57 UTC
• Data set: Daily OHLCV from 2025-10-23 to 2025-11-25 plus hourly for 2025-11-26
• Regime: Primary downtrend since late October with a strong mid November selloff, followed by a short-term bounce from 0.284 to 0.347 and current consolidation under nearby resistance

Price action and structure

• Higher time frame structure: Lower highs and lower lows persist from the 0.55 to 0.46 zone into the 0.28 low on Nov 23. The rebound to 0.3467 on Nov 25 is the first meaningful countertrend rally but remains below key lower highs at 0.372, 0.391, 0.404
• Current microstructure: Today’s hourly session pushed to 0.355 early, then produced lower highs 0.346 and 0.339 with a sequence of fades, suggesting supply between 0.346 and 0.355. Intraday support is building near 0.331 to 0.332 with a deeper support shelf at 0.316
• Key levels
  • Supports: 0.331 to 0.332 intraday shelf, 0.320 to 0.321 prior pivot density, 0.308 to 0.309 Nov 24 close cluster, 0.296 to 0.297, and cycle low 0.284
  • Resistances: 0.3467 Nov 25 close, 0.350 to 0.355 intraday supply and 23.6 percent Fibonacci, 0.365 R1 pivot, 0.372 late Nov swing, 0.390 to 0.392, 0.404
• Candlestick cues
  • Nov 23 printed a long lower tail relative to recent bodies, marking a selling climax zone around 0.284 to 0.292
  • Nov 24 strong bullish body, and Nov 25 continuation close near highs, then Nov 26 produced an inside day like consolidation under resistance, a classic pause beneath supply

Trend and moving averages

• Simple moving averages using daily closes
  • MA5 approximately 0.311. Price above MA5, showing short term rebound intact
  • MA10 approximately 0.351. Price below MA10, signaling the rebound has not reclaimed the 10 day mean
  • MA20 approximately 0.378. Price well below MA20. The 20 day slope remains down, confirming the dominant downtrend
• Read of alignment: Price above MA5 but below MA10 and MA20 equals countertrend bounce within a broader downtrend. Typical playbook is sell into first resistance while below the 10 to 20 day band

Momentum indicators

• RSI 14 daily estimated near 37 to 39 after today’s slight fade. This is weak momentum, out of oversold but below the midline. Such RSI tends to cap rallies near 40 to 50 resistance until further basing occurs
• MACD 12 26 9 qualitative read: MACD below zero with histogram improving the last two sessions on the bounce, but still early and fragile. Momentum repair needs a close above 0.351 to 0.355 to pull MACD further toward zero
• Stochastic oscillator qualitative: Turned up from oversold on Nov 24 to 25 and now rolling sideways under 50 on today’s consolidation. That suggests limited thrust unless price can break and hold above 0.355
• ADX qualitative: Trend strength from the selloff remains elevated but is compressing; typical of a pause before either a continuation leg down or a stronger mean reversion. With price under key MAs, continuation risk is nontrivial

Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands 20 period approximate
  • Middle band MA20 near 0.378
  • Estimated standard deviation around 0.05, placing lower band near 0.278 and upper band near 0.478
  • Interpretation: Price bounced off the lower band cluster 0.284 to 0.296 and is gravitating toward the mid band. However rejection at 0.350 to 0.355 below the middle band suggests mean reversion may stall and recheck lower supports before any further approach to the mid band
• ATR 14 daily approximate 0.045 to 0.055 based on recent daily ranges. A one day projected range from the current price spans roughly 0.295 to 0.385 under typical conditions. This supports tactical targets within 2 to 3 cents of current price as realistic in the next 24 hours
• Keltner Channel qualitative: With EMA20 near 0.378 and ATR band widths around 0.05, price is inside the lower half of the channel after a prior lower channel breach. Often this configuration sees a retest of the lower channel edge if midline cannot be reclaimed quickly

Volume and participation

• Volume crescendo mid November on the breakdown and initial bounce signals high participation in the sell move and short covering on the rebound
• Nov 24 to 25 bounce occurred on rising volume, bullish for a short term rally. Today’s intraday volume faded on the pullback, indicating a pause rather than aggressive selling, but supply appeared at 0.346 to 0.355 where volume ticks rose into those pushes
• OBV qualitative: Still in a downchannel with a small higher low forming, consistent with a reactive bounce but not a full regime change

Intraday microstructure, VWAP and pattern read

• Hourly shows a compressing range 0.332 to 0.346 with lower highs through the US afternoon session
• VWAP for the session estimates around 0.334 to 0.335. Current price 0.338 trades slightly above VWAP but below the session high, typical of an afternoon fade after a mid day pop
• A developing symmetrical triangle or wedge is visible intraday with resistance trendline from 0.355 to 0.346 to 0.340 and support trendline from 0.318 to 0.322 to 0.331. A break will likely define the overnight direction. Given higher time frame downtrend, odds favor a downside resolution unless 0.346 to 0.355 breaks decisively

Fibonacci and confluence

• Swing measured from Nov 12 high 0.563 to Nov 23 low 0.284 yields key retracements
  • 23.6 percent at approximately 0.350, aligns with today’s intraday rejection zone 0.350 to 0.355
  • 38.2 percent near 0.391, aligns with a strong daily resistance shelf 0.390 to 0.404
  • 50 percent at around 0.423, even stronger overhead resistance
• Confluence conclusion: The 0.346 to 0.355 band represents first meaningful Fibonacci and structural resistance inside a broader downtrend. It is an attractive short entry zone with clear invalidation above 0.355 to 0.360

Ichimoku lens

• Tenkan sen 9 period mid estimated near 0.377 based on recent highs and lows, above current price and falling
• Kijun sen 26 period mid likely in the 0.42 zone, far above price
• Cloud likely well overhead. Price below Tenkan, Kijun, and the cloud indicates bearish regime. A Tenkan cap typically serves as dynamic resistance until reclaimed, reinforcing the sell the rally bias

Classic floor pivots using Nov 25 H L C

• High 0.352824, Low 0.303853, Close 0.346670
• Pivot point PP approximately 0.33445
• R1 approximately 0.36505, S1 approximately 0.31607, R2 approximately 0.38342, S2 approximately 0.28548
• Current price just above PP. A common intraday pattern is mean reversion from PP toward either R1 or S1. Given overhead supply and trend, the higher probability path is PP to S1, matching our tactical short target framework

Wyckoff read and risk framework

• The 0.284 area looks like a selling climax and automatic rally to 0.346. A secondary test could occur into 0.320 to 0.308 before a broader accumulation base forms. That argues for a near term pullback even if a larger basing process is beginning

Elliott style count qualitative

• Consider the move from 0.563 to 0.284 as an impulsive five leg down. The bounce to 0.346 appears as an A wave, with a probable B leg pullback towards 0.320 to 0.308 before a C wave tries the 0.365 to 0.390 zone. This supports a short over the next 24 hours aiming for 0.320 area

Probability weighted scenarios next 24 hours

• Base case 55 percent: Rejection on any retest of 0.346 to 0.350, price rotates down through 0.334 VWAP to 0.328 to 0.322 and tags 0.320 to 0.316 S1 zone. Bounce attempts into the US morning next day
• Bull case 30 percent: Strong overnight bid breaks 0.350 to 0.355, quick extension to 0.365 R1 and potentially 0.372. Requires volume expansion and a daily close above 0.355 to confirm
• Bear tail 15 percent: Liquidity vacuum below 0.316 drives a stop run to 0.308 to 0.300 and possibly 0.296. This aligns with S2 proximity but would likely need a broader risk off impulse

Trade plan and risk controls

• Bias: Sell strength into 0.346 to 0.350 with a tight invalidation above 0.357 to 0.360. The reward to risk is favorable toward a 0.320 take profit versus a 0.357 risk
• Entry concept: Limit sell at 0.346, optional add near 0.350 if reached
• Take profit concept: First target 0.320 at the upper edge of the S1 band to respect ATR constraints within 24 hours. Secondary target if momentum accelerates 0.316 and stretch 0.308, but base case is 0.320
• Stop concept for reference only: 0.357 to 0.360 above the 0.355 supply and the day high zone. That defines roughly 11 to 14 ticks of risk to target 26 ticks of reward, about 1 to 2.3 reward to risk

Catalyst independent considerations

• With price still below MA10 and MA20 and under the Ichimoku Tenkan, the path of least resistance remains down or sideways until proven otherwise. The nearby confluence of 23.6 percent Fibonacci, pivot derived R1, and visible intraday supply at 0.346 to 0.355 creates a clean asymmetric short setup in the next session window

Bottom line view and 24 hour forecast

• Expect a retest of 0.346 to 0.350 that fails, followed by a rotation lower toward 0.330 and a test of 0.320. A sustained hourly close above 0.355 would invalidate the short term bearish call and open 0.365 to 0.372

Decision

• Action: Sell on strength into resistance
• Rationale: Countertrend bounce into multi method resistance inside a broader downtrend, with momentum still sub 50 RSI, MACD below zero, and pivot and Fibonacci confluence at 0.346 to 0.355