Fade the Bounce: Short Meteora into 0.214–0.216 for a 0.200 Liquidity Sweep

Executive summary (next 24h)

• Bias: Bearish continuation with sell-the-bounce edge; primary trend down across all observed timeframes.
• Thesis: After breaking successive daily supports (0.238 → 0.225 → 0.221), price is hovering just above psychological 0.200 and pivot S2. Expect reflex rallies into intraday supply (0.213–0.216) to be faded, targeting a liquidity sweep of 0.200/0.199.
• Plan: Short a push into 0.214–0.216 with take-profit near 0.199. Invalidation above 0.222–0.223 (hourly swing/high-of-day zone).

1. Multi-timeframe trend and structure

• Long-term (since late Oct): From an early dataset spike high ≈0.90 (2025-10-23) to current ≈0.208, the asset is in a persistent downtrend (>75% drawdown). Lower highs/lower lows dominate.
• Intermediate (Nov → mid-Dec): Distribution at 0.32–0.35 (late Nov) led to a sustained breakdown into the 0.26s and then another leg lower to 0.22 → 0.20s this week.
• Recent daily structure:
  • 2025-12-10 to 2025-12-18 closes: 0.2906 → 0.2657 → 0.2586 → 0.2590 → 0.2393 → 0.2413 → 0.2454 → 0.2218 → 0.2081 (current). Persistent lower closes with only shallow bounces — classic bearish momentum regime.
  • Key broken levels now acting as resistance: 0.2215 (H1 swing), 0.2168 (hourly supply), 0.2122 (daily pivot S1 from 12/17 calcs).
• Intraday (H1, 2025-12-18):
  • Asia/EU sessions: stair-step down from ~0.222 to ~0.212, then to ~0.208; U.S. hours printed a flush to 0.2042 and a meek rebound to ~0.208.
  • Market structure: lower highs (0.2228 → 0.2216 → 0.2153 → 0.208), lower lows (0.2166 → 0.2125 → 0.2082 → 0.2042). Bearish micro-structure remains intact.

2. Moving averages (trend filters)

• Daily 20/50 SMA/EMA (approximate): Price is materially below all of them; the 20D likely around upper 0.20s/low 0.30s, the 50D higher still. This separation indicates a strong bearish trend with potential for mean reversion bounces but not a trend change.
• H1 20/50 EMA: Sloped downward; price trades below both for most of the day with sporadic tags from beneath. Any tests into these EMAs near 0.214–0.216 should find supply.
• Implication: Momentum/trend filters favor shorts on rallies until daily closes reclaim and hold >0.221–0.226.

3. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14) (qualitative): Likely in the low-mid 20s after multiple heavy down days — oversold but in a bearish regime. In such regimes, oversold can persist and rallies fail at resistance.
• H1 RSI(14): Hovering mid-30s to low-40s on rebounds, dipping into high-20s on flushes. A small bullish divergence was likely between ~0.208 low and ~0.204 low (RSI slightly higher on the second low), but the ensuing bounce stalled below resistance — classic weak divergence within a downtrend.
• MACD (daily and H1): Below signal and zero lines; histogram negative though shortening slightly intraday, consistent with bear-market bounces rather than reversals.

4. Volatility and range statistics

• Daily high-low ranges (recent):
  • 12/10: ~0.0503; 12/11: ~0.0283; 12/12: ~0.0176; 12/14: ~0.0205; 12/15: ~0.0242; 12/17: ~0.0282; 12/18 so far: ~0.0186.
• ATR(14) (daily, approximate): ~0.020–0.022. A typical 24h move of ~9–11% at current prices.
• H1 ATR: ~0.0045–0.0050. Suggests 2–4 H1 ATR moves can revisit 0.214–0.216 and/or 0.200 in the next session.
• Implication: There is room for a test into 0.214–0.216 and still enough room to tag sub-0.200 within 24h without violating recent volatility norms.

5. Bollinger Bands (daily)

• Price is hugging/living below the lower band, indicating trend pressure rather than a clean revert-to-mean environment. Squeeze/expansion favors continuation lower after weak bounces. Any tag of the daily 20SMA (center band) is far overhead, so bounces should be faded into nearer resistances first.

6. Volume, OBV, and flow

• Daily volumes surged in late Nov on breakdowns and remained elevated during down legs; more recent sessions show sufficient activity on down days and only modest volume on bounces.
• OBV (qualitative) trends down: distribution during rallies, accumulation absent.
• Intraday: The 19:00 flush to ~0.204 carried the largest hour volume of the day, likely sweeping stops but not attracting strong sustained dip buying — a tell that supply still dominates.

7. Support/Resistance mapping (confluence)

• Immediate supports: 0.205–0.206 (tested), 0.200 (round), 0.199–0.198 (liquidity sweep zone), 0.194–0.193 (next extension if momentum accelerates).
• Immediate resistances: 0.212–0.213 (daily pivot S1 / intraday supply), 0.214–0.216 (H1 EMA cluster and prior intraday highs), 0.221–0.2228 (H1 swing high / day high), 0.2268 (50% retrace of the 0.249→0.204 leg), 0.2326 (61.8% retrace).
• Read: The 0.214–0.216 pocket is attractive for shorts due to multi-tool confluence (H1 MAs, recent highs, below 38.2% fib) and proximity to invalidation.

8. Fibonacci and pivots

• Last swing high/low: 0.24937 (12/17 H) → 0.20420 (12/18 L so far).
  • 38.2%: ~0.2209
  • 50%: ~0.2268
  • 61.8%: ~0.2326
  • Price stalled earlier below 0.221–0.222, respecting the 38.2% resistance zone.
• Classic daily pivots (using 12/17 H/L/C: 0.24937/0.22121/0.22182):
  • P ≈ 0.2308
  • R1 ≈ 0.2404
  • S1 ≈ 0.2122 (tested today and flipped to resistance)
  • S2 ≈ 0.2026 (next magnet; aligns with round 0.200)
  • Current 0.208 sits between S1 and S2, typically a bearish position with an edge toward S2 tests.

9. Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Price < Tenkan < Kijun, and < Kumo; cloud ahead is bearish and above price.
• Chikou span trails below price action and below cloud — full bearish stack. Any rallies to Tenkan/Kijun (likely ~0.214–0.220) are shortable levels.

10. VWAP and anchored references

• Session VWAPs likely overhead given persistent net selling; anchored VWAP from the 12/17 high would sit around the low 0.22s — matching the 0.221–0.2228 resistance band.
• Expect sellers to defend areas where price reclaims VWAP temporarily.

11. Regression/mean reversion view

• A 30-session linear regression channel slopes down strongly; price is riding the lower half. While a mean reversion pop can occur, statistically it’s more likely to revert toward the midline and fail than to fully reverse the downtrend within 24h. That places the sell zone below 0.221 and the profit zone near 0.200.

12. Pattern diagnostics

• Bear flag breakdown: The 0.32–0.35 consolidation in late Nov/early Dec resolved lower. Current leg looks like a continuation phase after a brief consolidation in the 0.24–0.26s.
• Candles: 12/17 printed a long-body bearish candle closing near the lows; today’s intraday bounce attempts are small-bodied and fail at resistance — classic follow-through behavior before a round-number test.

13. Liquidity and stop-hunting dynamics

• Equal/clustered lows around 0.204–0.205 were swept at 19:00 with a marginal rebound. The next obvious liquidity pool sits just below 0.200; a wick into 0.198–0.199 in the next 24h is probable if sellers press once more.
• Overhead, the 0.221–0.223 band contains resting stops for shorts; this is the clean invalidation area for tactical shorts initiated below.

14. Scenario probabilities (24h)

• Bearish continuation with bounce-fade (primary): 55–60%
  • Move: Pop to 0.213–0.216; failure → drive to 0.200/0.199.
• Range-bound chop (secondary): 25–30%
  • 0.205–0.215 oscillation, no decisive break.
• Sharp V-reversal >0.223 and hold (low probability): 10–15%
  • Requires sustained buy volume and reclaim of 0.226–0.227 (50% fib) to alter the daily tone.

15. Risk and trade construction

• Entry rationale: Short the 0.214–0.216 supply pocket (H1 EMA cluster, prior intraday highs, underside of S1), improving R:R while maintaining high fill probability.
• Take-profit rationale: 0.198–0.200 aligns with S2 and round-number magnet; also the obvious next liquidity pocket.
• Invalidation: 0.2229 (above 0.2215–0.2228 intraday swings and near the day high band). A 1H close above 0.223 would warn of a deeper fib retrace toward 0.226–0.232.
• Indicative R:R if filled at 0.2149: TP 0.1989 (+7.5%); stop 0.2229 (-3.7%); R:R ≈ 2.0.

Conclusion and 24h call

• The confluence of trend filters, momentum regime, pivot/Fib alignment, and observed intraday supply at 0.214–0.216 favors a tactical short. Expect a test of 0.200/0.199 within 24 hours unless 0.222–0.223 is reclaimed and held.