Countertrend Bounce in a Bear Market: Buy the Dip into 0.226–0.229, Aim for the 0.239 Confluence

Instrument: Meteora (MET38353) Current price: $0.230873 Timeframe analyzed: Daily (Oct 23 – Dec 20) and Hourly (Dec 19–20) Horizon: Next 24 hours

Step-by-step multi-method technical analysis

1. Market structure and trend context

• Higher timeframe (Daily): Clear multi-week downtrend from late October (0.55–0.60) to the recent Dec 18 low at 0.2077. The sequence of lower highs and lower lows remains intact. The current bounce from 0.2077 to 0.2309 is a counter-trend rally within a broader bearish regime.
• Intermediate supports/resistances: • Major support: 0.204–0.208 (Dec 18 low/cluster).
  • Pivot support: 0.219–0.221 (recent hourly base/previous day R1 now potential support).
  • Near-term resistance: 0.235–0.236 (multiple hourly rejections; also Fib confluence), 0.242–0.245 (Dec 16 high/round-number cluster), 0.249–0.250 (50% retrace of the 12/10–12/18 swing, psychological 0.25), 0.258–0.260.
• Hourly structure (last 24h): Gradual grind higher from ~0.2206 to a 0.236 spike, followed by pullback and stabilization around 0.230–0.231. The micro up-channel is intact but momentum has cooled as price repeatedly stalls beneath 0.235–0.236.

2. Momentum (RSI, MACD, Stochastics)

• Daily RSI(14): Rising off oversold; estimate mid-40s to high-40s after the 12/18 capitulation and 2-day bounce. This suggests early-stage mean reversion but not yet a trend reversal (RSI < 50/55).
• Hourly RSI(14): Neutral-to-slightly bullish (~50–55), with a mild bearish divergence developing between the 12:00 high near 0.236 and later attempts near 0.232–0.233 (lower RSI peaks vs. price attempts), signaling waning intraday momentum at resistance.
• Daily MACD: Below zero, histogram less negative and curling up—typical of a bear-market bounce. No confirmed bullish cross on the daily yet.
• Hourly MACD: Near flatline with small positive histogram that has been narrowing since the 0.236 test; micro momentum cooling but not reversed.

3. Volatility and range (ATR, Bollinger Bands)

• Daily ATR(14) estimate: ~0.020–0.026 after the sharp early-December expansion; this implies a typical daily range of ~8–11% in the current price zone.
• Hourly ATR(14): ~0.003–0.004, matching observed intraday swings of 1–2 cents.
• Bollinger Bands (Daily, 20, 2): Price broke below lower band into Dec 18, then reverted back inside—classic mean reversion. Mid-band (20-SMA) likely near ~0.30, far above current price; lower band likely ~0.24 area recently—price is hovering just under that zone, consistent with resistance around 0.235–0.240.

4. Moving averages (trend filters)

• Daily 20/50 EMA/SMA: Sloping down; price trades well below these, confirming the dominant downtrend. The gap to the 20-day is wide, allowing for further mean reversion rallies without breaking the bearish macro context.
• Hourly 20/50 EMA: Price above the 20/50 on intraday basis after the 0.220–0.221 base; bullish micro bias so long as 0.228–0.229 holds on dips.

5. Fibonacci retracements and confluence

• Swing A (Dec 10 high 0.2906 to Dec 18 low 0.2077):
  • 23.6%: ~0.2273 (near current support/pullback zone).
  • 38.2%: ~0.2394 (first substantive upside target/resistance).
  • 50%: ~0.2492 (next resistance and psychological 0.25).
  • 61.8%: ~0.2589.
• Broader swing (Nov 30–Dec 18: 0.3256 to 0.2077):
  • 23.6%: ~0.2355 (precise intraday rejection zone).
  • 38.2%: ~0.2527.
  Confluence: 0.235–0.239 is a strong resistance band (two separate Fibonacci clusters). 0.249–0.253 is the next confluence layer if 0.239 breaks.

6. Pivot points (Classic, using Dec 19 data H=0.223121, L=0.205101, C=0.219590)

• Pivot P ≈ 0.21594.
• R1 ≈ 0.22678 (now acting as intraday support).
• R2 ≈ 0.23396 (price probed/rotated around this today).
• R3 ≈ 0.24480 (aligns with the 0.242–0.245 resistance zone).
  These pivots mapped well to today’s price behavior: support near R1, stalling near R2, headroom toward R3 if momentum refreshes.

7. Ichimoku (heuristic, 1H)

• Price slightly above Tenkan and Kijun after the bounce; Kijun near ~0.228–0.229 provides intraday reference support.
• Cloud (Kumo) likely flat-to-slightly descending near 0.232–0.236; repeated rejections under the flat Kumo top often indicate supply absorption is ongoing. A decisive 1H close above ~0.236–0.238 would be a constructive micro breakout.

8. VWAP/Anchored VWAP (heuristic)

• Session VWAP today likely sits around 0.229–0.231 given the day’s distribution. Price hovering marginally above intraday VWAP is constructive.
• Anchored VWAP from the Dec 18 low would trail in the 0.226–0.230 region; price holding above that suggests buyers defend dips.

9. Candlestick behaviors

• Dec 18: wide red day closing near the low—capitulation-type print.
• Dec 19: constructive green day off the lows with higher close; not engulfing but bullish follow-through.
• Today (so far): Continuation green with upper wicks near 0.236, signaling supply at first resistance.

10. Volume analysis

• Massive distribution/volatile turnover Nov 27–28 (500–700m), then a multi-week fade. Recent daily volumes moderate (30–110m) with no capitulation climax on the most recent low—suggesting controlled liquidation rather than panic. Intraday upticks on pushes to 0.235–0.236 show supply presence; no blow-off top patterns intraday.

11. Pattern read and tactical setup

• Pattern: Bear-market rally within a dominant downtrend; intraday ascending channel/flag since 0.220–0.221 base.
• The first serious overhead test is 0.235–0.239 (Fib 23.6%/38.2% confluence + pivot R2 vicinity). Expect initial rejection(s) unless buyers expand volume and breadth.
• Risk location for longs: below 0.219–0.221 (break of yesterday’s new support and of the 1H Kijun/VWAP cluster).
• Reward location for longs: 0.239–0.245 initially; stretch target 0.249–0.253 if momentum surprises to the upside.

12. Elliott wave micro take (heuristic)

• From 0.2077, a 3-leg corrective structure (A-B-C) fits: A to ~0.236, B pullback to ~0.229–0.230, potential C toward 0.239–0.245. Failure of B at/under 0.219 invalidates the immediate C-up scenario.

13. Statistical/mean reversion angle

• Price remains significantly below the 20/50-day averages, favoring short-term mean reversion bounces even within a downtrend. The first magnet is the daily lower band/Fib confluence ~0.239–0.241, which aligns with a reasonable 24-hour upside objective.

14. Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (55%): Range-to-slightly-bullish drift. Dips into 0.226–0.229 find buyers; a retest of 0.235–0.239 occurs. If supply is not heavy, a push/close toward 0.239 is feasible.
• Bear case (25%): Breakdown through 0.219–0.221 turns the bounce into a bull trap; price revisits 0.212–0.208.
• Bull extension (20%): Clean break and 1H hold above 0.236–0.238 opens 0.242–0.245; on acceleration, 0.249–0.253 (half-back / Fib 38.2% of broader swing).

15. Risk management and execution

• Longs should avoid chasing into 0.235–0.239 resistance; better to buy pullbacks into 0.226–0.229 where VWAP/Kijun/pivot R1 converge.
• Stop discipline (not part of requested fields, but advised): Below 0.219–0.220 to invalidate the micro upstructure and protect against a slide into the 0.207–0.208 shelf.
• Take-profit discipline: Scale out around 0.239–0.241 (first wall); leave a runner only on strength above 0.241 with rising volume.

Conclusion and 24h directional call

• The dominant trend is down, but the next 24 hours show favorable odds for a controlled mean-reversion continuation toward the 0.239 confluence, provided 0.219–0.221 holds. Tactically, a buy-the-dip setup offers a better reward-to-risk than a chase or an outright short at current levels. Therefore, a Buy on pullback is preferred.

Predicted 24h path: Consolidation 0.228–0.232, test 0.235–0.239. If momentum builds, quick probe 0.242–0.245; if 0.219 breaks, abort long view and expect 0.212–0.208 retest.