Meteora coiling at 38.2%: poised to squeeze into 0.259 if 0.246/0.250 breaks

Meteora (MET38353) – full-spectrum technical read and 24-hour trading plan

Summary first:

• Bias (next 24h): Mildly bullish. Expect a grind higher toward 0.250–0.259 if 0.244–0.246 is reclaimed and held.
• Rationale: Short-term momentum has turned up (price > 5SMA and 10SMA), volatility has compressed near a key 38.2% retracement, and price sits above the daily pivot with nearby resistance clustering that, once broken, can invite a quick squeeze to the next confluence band (0.258–0.260).
• Key risk: Broader trend remains down (price < 20SMA/21EMA). A failure back through 0.239–0.236 reopens 0.2347 (pivot) and 0.2260 (S1).

1. Market structure and trend context

• Multi-week trend: Bearish. From late Oct highs (~0.90 intraday) to a mid-November stabilization, then a secondary down-leg through early December. Recent daily closes: 0.2906 (12/10) → 0.2077 (12/18 low close), rebound to ~0.2418 (12/21) and 0.2403 now.
• Short-term inflection: Since the 12/18 capitulation close (0.2077), price is printing higher lows and has reclaimed the daily pivot zone—suggesting a tactical bounce within a larger downtrend.
• Intraday (hourly 12/22): Morning push to 0.2567, then orderly pullback to 0.2384, and a tight base around 0.240–0.242 into the close. This resembles a bull flag/coil under first resistance.

2. Moving averages and trend filters

• 5-day SMA ≈ 0.2286; 10-day SMA ≈ 0.2350; 20-day SMA ≈ 0.2723 (estimates from recent closes). • Price (0.2403) > 5SMA and 10SMA: short-term momentum positive. • Price < 20SMA: intermediate trend still down.
• Implication: Near-term mean reversion remains intact, but the bigger bearish regime caps upside beyond 0.26–0.27 on first try.

3. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) daily (approx): rebounded from oversold in mid-December; currently mid-40s to high-40s. This is constructive for a continuation bounce (headroom exists before overbought).
• Stochastics: Off lows, likely in mid-range (40–60) with room to cycle higher on a resistance break (0.246–0.252).
• MACD (12,26,9 proxy): Below zero (bearish regime) but histogram has been contracting toward zero since 12/18—momentum loss on the downside and potential for a bullish cross if price clears 0.252–0.256.
• CCI: Likely improved from sub -100 to around -50/0 zone; aligns with a recovery phase from oversold.

4. Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands(20): Midline ~0.272 (20SMA). Current price in the lower band zone (lower third), but above the estimated lower band (~0.20–0.21). Bandwidth narrowed over the last week—classic pre-breakout compression.
• ATR(14) daily (est): ~0.016–0.020. A 1.0–1.25x ATR push would put 0.256–0.260 within reach in a single session, provided resistance breaks.

5. Volume, OBV, and participation

• Volume peaked in late Nov; recent sessions show lighter but steady participation. The 12/18 sell-off looked capitulative; subsequent days exhibit healthier up-day closes on decent volume—OBV slope likely turning up tactically.
• Intraday 12/22: Heavier prints on the morning rally near 0.252–0.256, then lighter volumes into the pullback base—typical of bull flag digestion.

6. Key levels and confluences

• Support: • 0.2394–0.2403: 38.2% Fib of 12/10 high (0.2906) to 12/18 low (0.2077) sits at ~0.2394; current price is hovering slightly above. • 0.2384: Today’s intra-hour low. • 0.2347: Daily pivot P derived from 12/21 (H=0.2433, L=0.2189, C=0.2418). • 0.2260 (S1) and 0.2218 (12/17 close) then 0.2077–0.205 (major support zone).
• Resistance: • 0.2444–0.2460: First supply shelf (hourly clustering and minor MA confluence). • 0.2487–0.2527: Intraday swing highs (7–9 UTC), includes pivot R1 ≈ 0.2504. • 0.2591: Pivot R2 and 61.8% retrace (~0.259) of the 12/10→12/18 move; psychological target and profit-taking magnet. • 0.265–0.270: Overhead resistance band; 0.2906 (12/10 close) is the larger mean-reversion cap.

7. Fibonacci mapping

• Using 12/10 high 0.2906 and 12/18 low 0.2077: • 38.2% ≈ 0.2394 (where price is coiling now). • 50% ≈ 0.2492 (aligns with pivot R1 region—first real test). • 61.8% ≈ 0.2590 (aligns with R2/target area).
• Implication: Clean confluence ladder. A break through 0.249–0.252 often drives a measured move to 0.259.

8. Pivot points (from 12/21 H/L/C)

• P ≈ 0.2347; R1 ≈ 0.2504; R2 ≈ 0.2591; S1 ≈ 0.2260; S2 ≈ 0.2103.
• Current price above P and below R1: bullish intraday bias with room to test R1/R2 if momentum re-accelerates.

9. Ichimoku snapshot (qualitative)

• Price below Kumo on daily; Kijun (26-period baseline) much higher (~0.31–0.33 zone) from the earlier range. Tenkan (9) turning up and may cross above a flattened Kijun on lower timeframes, which often precedes a mean-reversion advance. Cloud resistance remains above; near-term rallies likely stall at 0.259–0.270 without a decisive trend change.

10. VWAP and market profile (intraday)

• Intraday VWAP (12/22) likely around 0.245–0.247 given morning strength near 0.252–0.256. Price is currently below VWAP—mean-reversion longs favor entries below VWAP with a plan to reclaim it. Acceptance back above VWAP often fuels a run toward the day’s value area high (~0.250–0.253) and into R1.
• Volume nodes: Notable liquidity pockets around 0.240–0.242 (current base) and 0.250–0.252 (supply). A move through 0.252 can air-pocket to ~0.259.

11. Candlesticks and patterns

• Daily: 12/18 printed a hammer-like low; subsequent candles show higher closes and smaller bodies—stabilization after washout. 12/22 shaping as a small-bodied doji near the 38.2% Fib—typical coil under resistance.
• Hourly: Morning spike → consolidation wedge; repeated taps at 0.244–0.246 and 0.248–0.252 form a compressing structure. This is a classic setup for a squeeze if supply thins.

12. Elliott/Wyckoff framing (heuristic)

• Post-selloff accumulation: Preliminary support (PS) around 0.221–0.226 and a selling climax (SC) at 0.207–0.205, followed by automatic rally (AR) to ~0.242 and secondary test (ST) today ~0.238–0.240. If valid, Phase B/C could resolve with an upthrust through 0.250–0.252 into 0.259 before rebalancing.

13. Regression, z-score, and risk metrics

• 20-session regression slope still negative; 5-session slope positive. Z-score vs 20SMA ~ -0.9 to -1.0 (price below mean by ~1σ). Mean reversion path-of-least-resistance is higher until mid-band (~0.27), but resistance bands likely fade moves earlier (0.259).
• Estimated 24h move envelope: ±0.012–0.020 (0.5–1.0 ATR). Upside path: 0.244 → 0.250 → 0.258/0.259. Downside path: 0.239 → 0.236 → 0.2347 → 0.226.

14. Scenario probabilities (subjective)

• Bullish continuation to 0.250–0.259: ~55–60%.
• Range/coil 0.236–0.248 without break: ~25–30%.
• Bearish break under 0.2347 toward 0.226: ~10–15%.

15. Trade plan and execution logic

• Long setup bias because: • Price > 5SMA/10SMA and above daily pivot (P), signaling tactical strength. • Coiling at 38.2% Fib with band compression—ripe for a push to 50%/61.8% levels. • Clear nearby invalidation and favorable R:R.
• Optimal entry: Buy-the-dip into 0.239–0.240 to align with the 38.2% Fib and just above today’s intraday low; alternatively, momentum add on reclaim/hold above 0.246 and/or through 0.250.
• Profit-taking target: 0.2589 (confluence of R2 + 61.8% Fib). Expect sellers there on first test.
• Risk management (not requested but critical): A protective stop below 0.2320 (beneath P breakdown) preserves structure; risk ≈ 0.007–0.008 vs reward ≈ 0.019–0.020 → R:R ≈ 2.5–3.0.

Path to target (tactical sequence):

• Step 1: Defend 0.239–0.240 base; avoid a close below 0.238.
• Step 2: Reclaim 0.244–0.246 zone and intraday VWAP.
• Step 3: Break and hold above 0.250 (R1/50% Fib); squeeze into 0.258–0.259.

Conclusion

• While the intermediate trend remains bearish, the short-term setup favors a long for a measured mean-reversion pop toward 0.258–0.259, provided 0.239–0.240 holds and 0.246/0.250 are reclaimed. The trade offers attractive R:R into nearby confluence resistance.