MPLX Breakdown: Short the Dead‑Cat Bounce Into 0.163–0.166, Target 0.148

Executive summary

• MPLX has broken decisively below multi‑month supports (0.197–0.212 and 0.168–0.171) on expanding hourly volume, printing new lows at ~0.1565. The structure across daily and intraday timeframes has transitioned from October distribution into a markdown phase. Momentum, trend, and volatility indicators align bearishly. The highest‑probability 24‑hour path is a reflexive bounce into supply (0.162–0.166) followed by continuation lower toward 0.148–0.152.

1. Multi‑timeframe market structure

• Daily trend: Lower highs since Sep 14 high (~0.369). After an October down‑channel with supports in the 0.24 → 0.22 area, price broke 0.219–0.223 late Oct, then 0.197 on Nov 3, and today flushed below the August floor (0.168–0.171). This establishes a new lower low, confirming a bearish daily structure (LL/ LH sequence intact).
• Intraday (hourly on Nov 4–5): A sequence of wide red candles 21:00–23:00 with heavy volume shows a stop‑loss cascade. Subsequent candles formed a tight, weak consolidation/bear flag under 0.162–0.163, failing to reclaim prior supports.
• Pattern context: October formed a descending triangle (lower highs vs. flat support ~0.219), broken on Nov 3. The post‑break retest failed and transitioned to aggressive markdown.

2. Moving averages and trend filters

• Daily 20/50/100 SMA/EMA (approximated from closes Aug→Nov):
  • 20D EMA ≈ 0.24–0.25; 50D EMA ≈ 0.26–0.27; 100D EMA ≈ 0.25–0.26. Price (0.1565) is far below all, indicating a strongly established downtrend with increasing separation (bearish impulse, unlikely to V‑revert without a base).
• Intraday EMAs (hourly): 9/21/50 EMAs all stacked bearishly and fanning apart; price riding below 9EMA since ~20:00 Nov 4. Momentum trend intact.
• ADX/DMI (daily, qualitative): ADX likely >25 with −DI dominant, indicating a trend‑strong selloff rather than a range.

3. Momentum oscillators

• RSI (daily, est.): Low 30s/upper 20s after the break. Oversold but can remain oversold during markdown phases.
• RSI (hourly): Deeply oversold (likely 18–25), with only tepid mean‑reversion bounces. No confirmed bullish divergence yet (new price lows matched by new/flat momentum lows), so continuation risk remains high after any small bounce.
• Stoch RSI: Pinned low on intraday, consistent with trend‑down; any cross‑up is likely to be a shortable bounce unless it is accompanied by a structural reclaim (>0.171).
• MACD (daily and hourly): Bearish with widening histogram; 0‑line far above. This supports “sell the rallies.”

4. Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (daily): Bands expanding; price walking the lower band—classic trending downside behavior. Mean reversion tends to fail at the mid‑band (20SMA), now far above.
• Keltner Channels/ATR: On an elevated ATR day, price is closing near the session’s lower KC. Expect high realized volatility to persist for ~1–2 more sessions. 24‑hour expected range ~0.012–0.020.
• Donchian Channels: Fresh 20‑day low set—breakout to the downside.

5. Volume analytics

• Hourly volume spiked on the break from ~0.18 → ~0.162–0.160, confirming a genuine breakdown rather than a low‑liquidity wick. OBV is rolling over and making new lows with price—no positive divergence yet.
• Volume profile (last 3 months): HVNs around 0.22–0.24 and 0.26–0.30; the 0.17–0.19 pocket was a historical LVN/slab of thin liquidity. Once it gave way, price slid quickly to mid‑0.15s. Next notable historical liquidity likely congregates near 0.150, then 0.142–0.145.

6. Ichimoku (contextual, daily)

• Price well below the Kumo; Tenkan < Kijun and both below cloud (bearish TK cross). Lagging span below price and cloud. Future cloud twist remains bearish. Net: rallies into Tenkan/Kijun (roughly 0.20–0.23 region) are strong sell zones; current distance suggests trend exhaustion is possible later, but we’ve not seen a reversal signal yet.

7. Fibonacci structure and measured moves

• Major swing: Aug 15 low (~0.1706) → Sep 14 high (~0.3689). Price has given back 100% of that upswing and has extended lower. 1.272 extension from that swing projects ~0.117; 1.618 ~0.048. Those are extreme tail targets, but the message is that we’re in an extension regime. Closer term intraday swings suggest:
  • From the last intraday supply pivot (~0.193–0.199) to the breakdown low (~0.1565), a 38.2–61.8% bounce would land near 0.168–0.176. The nearest congested supply shelf is tighter at 0.162–0.166; above that, 0.171 is a stronger pivot (August floor). Any rally into 0.171 that fails is a high‑probability short.

8. Support/resistance map and orderflow cues

• Broken supports turned resistance: 0.171, 0.179–0.183, 0.197–0.200, 0.219–0.223.
• Immediate intraday supply: 0.162–0.166 (post‑break bear‑flag base) and 0.169–0.171 (August floor retest). These are the “sell the bounce” zones.
• Next downside magnets: 0.152–0.150 (psychological and liquidity pool), then 0.145–0.142.
• Bearish order blocks: 0.187–0.193 (Nov 4 mid‑session) and micro OB around 0.162–0.166.
• Liquidity: Stops likely clustered below 0.150; buy stops above 0.166/0.171. Expect mean‑reversion pops to run shallow shorts before trend continuation.

9. Additional indicators/confirmations

• Parabolic SAR: Above price throughout the selloff—bearish.
• CCI/ROC: Deep negative readings; supportive of momentum continuation.
• DeMark Sequential (heuristic): Likely entering 8–9 counts on lower timeframes; often invites a counter‑trend bounce—but without a level reclaim, it’s a short setup into resistance.
• VWAPs: Session/anchored VWAP from the 0.198 breakdown area sits well above price; price trading below anchored VWAP is bearish. Any test of intraday VWAP should be faded while below.
• Heikin‑Ashi inference: Consecutive solid red bodies with minimal upper wicks—trend intensity still high.
• Wyckoff: October was distribution with up‑thrusts and lower highs; Nov 3–5 is the markdown phase. A typical sequence is an automatic rally after capitulation, then secondary test/supply test—offering the short on the rally.
• Elliott wave (heuristic): Likely minor wave 3 down completed or near completion intraday; a shallow wave 4 bounce into 0.162–0.166, then wave 5 extension toward 0.148–0.152.

10. 24‑hour scenario map

• Base case (60%): Reflexive bounce to 0.162–0.166 fails; price rotates down to 0.148–0.152, with a daily close near 0.150–0.153.
• Bullish alt (20%): Short‑covering push extends to ~0.171 (prior August floor). If reclaimed and held on hourly closes, a squeeze could target 0.178–0.183. Probability lower without a catalyst.
• Bearish alt (20%): No real bounce; grind lower to 0.149–0.146 in Asia/early Europe before stabilizing.

11. Trade plan and risk framing

• Strategy: Fade the first decent bounce into supply. It aligns with trend, risk can be defined tightly above invalidation, and R:R is favorable.
• Entry zone (short): 0.162–0.166. Optimal single price: 0.1638 (limit sell).
• Invalidation (not part of order output but essential for plan): Hourly close above 0.171 (or a hard stop ~0.173) breaks the immediate thesis.
• Profit target (24h): 0.1480 primary; stretch to 0.145 if momentum accelerates.
• R:R example: Entry 0.1638, stop 0.1730 (−0.0092), TP 0.1480 (+0.0158) → R:R ≈ 1:1.7; better if entry fills closer to 0.166.
• Position sizing: Conservative given elevated ATR and event risk. Scale entries across 0.162, 0.1645, 0.166 for improved average, if available.

Conclusion

• Virtually all tools—trend MAs, market structure, momentum, volatility envelopes, volume confirmation, and Ichimoku—converge on a bearish continuation setup. Expect a dead‑cat bounce into 0.162–0.166 to be sold, with 0.148–0.152 as the next magnet. The tactical decision is Short, entered on a bounce.

Price prediction next 24h

• Path: Bounce to 0.163–0.166 → fade → low print 0.148–0.151 → settle ~0.151–0.153.