Metaplex Price Analysis Powered by AI

Oversold but Stabilizing: Tactical Bounce Setup on Metaplex (MPLX) Toward the 0.173 Pivot

Executive summary

Bias next 24h: Short-term mean-reversion bounce favored after a capitulation-style selloff; medium-term trend remains bearish. Base case expects a recovery toward 0.168–0.172 with sellers re-appearing into 0.173 pivot. Downside risk persists if 0.156–0.158 breaks, opening 0.150–0.152.
Decision: Buy (tactical long) for a rebound toward the daily pivot/overhead supply; keep tight risk controls as the primary trend is down.

Trend regime: Strong downtrend since mid-September’s 0.33 peak. A lower-high sequence (0.3239 → 0.3167 → ~0.30s → 0.26s → 0.23s) transitioned into a lower-low breakdown on 2025-11-04 with a large-range bearish candle: H 0.2012, L 0.1588, C 0.1604, volume 13.5M (elevated), suggesting capitulation pressure.
Key context: Price is now trading at/near multi-month lows, undercutting the August cluster (~0.168–0.176). That creates: • A vacuum of historical support below 0.168, leaving 0.156/0.150 as the next logical psychological/liquidity pockets. • A high probability of short-term mean reversion because price is extended far below moving averages and Bollinger lower band.

Session range: 0.1563–0.1639 with steady stabilization. The lowest low printed around 16:00 (0.1563), followed by higher hourly closes into 21:57 (0.1619). This is early evidence of a basing attempt.
Micro-structure: Buyers defended sub-0.158 twice and reclaimed into 0.160–0.162. Pullbacks are being bought modestly; supply still present near 0.162–0.1638.

20D SMA ≈ 0.2176 (computed from last 20 closes). Price at 0.1619 is ~25.6% below 20SMA — a rare extension typically mean-reverting in the short run.
50D/100D SMA (approx): 50D has drifted from the 0.26–0.27 region toward the low 0.24s; 100D higher still. Price is well below both, confirming the primary downtrend.
Slope: All key MAs are declining—trend is bearish, but distance from fast MAs is stretched, favoring a bounce.

RSI(14) daily ≈ 24 (derived from the last 14 changes). Deep oversold. Historically, sub-30 daily RSI often precedes 1–3 day bounces even in downtrends.
Hourly momentum (qualitative): After the 16:00 low, successive closes improved, suggesting a minor bullish divergence vs. earlier momentum lows.
Stochastics (qualitative): Likely buried <20 and curling up intraday, consistent with a short-term reversal attempt.

ATR(14) daily (est.): ~0.017. The 11-04 true range was ~0.042 — a volatility shock. Expect elevated realized vol for 1–2 days post-shock.
Bollinger Bands (20, 2σ): Mid ≈ 0.218; σ est. ~0.02. Lower band near ~0.178; price at 0.162 is well below the lower band, a statistically extreme deviation that typically mean-reverts toward the band or midline over time. Over the next 24h, a move toward the lower band zone (0.174–0.178) is ambitious but feasible to start bridging the gap; first resistance is likely before reaching it.

11-04 volume spike (13.5M) signals panic/capitulation. Subsequent intraday stabilization with moderate volume indicates supply absorption at 0.156–0.162.
Intraday VWAP (Nov 6) est. ~0.1609–0.1612; price currently a touch above, indicating sessions buyers are slightly in control. Pullbacks toward VWAP should attract dip bids on first test.
Volume by price (qualitative): Heavy acceptance built between 0.21–0.23 in late October; that zone is now far overhead and will serve as a supply shelf on rebounds.

Immediate supports: 0.160–0.162 (current acceptance); 0.156–0.158 (session low cluster). Below, psychological 0.150.
Immediate resistances: 0.164–0.165 (intraday offers), 0.168–0.171 (prior micro-shelf), then 0.173–0.175 (daily pivot/magnet), and 0.180–0.186 (pre-breakdown congestion; aligns with Fib 38.2%).
Classic daily pivots using 11-04 (H=0.2012, L=0.1588, C=0.1604): • Pivot P ≈ 0.1735 • R1 ≈ 0.1881, S1 ≈ 0.1457 • R2 ≈ 0.2159, S2 ≈ 0.1311 Price below P suggests overall bearish bias, but P at 0.1735 often acts as a mean-reversion target over 24–48h after a volatility shock.

Swing: 10-26 high 0.2305 to 11-04 low 0.1588 (Δ=0.0717) • 23.6%: 0.1757 • 38.2%: 0.1862 • 50.0%: 0.1947 • 61.8%: 0.2033 A first bounce frequently stalls between 23.6–38.2%. That frames 0.175–0.186 as ambitious near-term resistance. Our 24h base case caps below that, ~0.171–0.173.

Price far below Tenkan and Kijun (both likely 0.21–0.23 zone). Cloud overhead. This confirms macro-bearish regime; however, Tenkan/Kijun distance is stretched, supportive of short-term snapback attempts.

MACD line deeply negative and below signal after 11-04; histogram likely expanding negative but may start to contract if price stabilizes — another early reversal tell for the next 1–3 sessions, not a trend-change signal.

A 20-session linear regression channel puts price more than 2σ below the mean. Statistically, the next 1–2 sessions favor reversion toward ~0.17–0.18, with the caveat of continued high vol.

11-04 candle: wide red, close near low — continuation risk.
Today (11-06 intraday): small-bodied consolidating bars over the session low with higher closes — early base; potential micro “bullish divergence” vs. momentum.

Base case (60%): Mean-reversion bounce toward 0.168–0.172, with a test/approach of the 0.1735 pivot; sellers fade the move near 0.171–0.173.
Bear case (25%): Breakdown through 0.156–0.158, extending to 0.150–0.152 liquidity before attempting a later bounce.
Bull stretch (15%): Strong relief rally squeezes to 0.175–0.178 (near 23.6% Fib and under lower BB). Probability lower unless broader market (e.g., SOL) risk-on tailwind appears.

Strategy: Tactical long for mean reversion into resistance; not a trend reversal call. Use a tight stop due to elevated ATR.
Entry: Prefer a limit pullback buy near 0.1608 (first retest of intraday VWAP shelf 0.1609–0.1612). If momentum accelerates above 0.1638 without a pullback, consider a smaller position and wait for a flag retrace.
Profit-taking: Primary TP near 0.1715–0.1720 (beneath pivot 0.1735 and under local supply) to increase fill probability.
Suggested stop (not requested but prudent): ~0.1554 (below session low cluster 0.1563), risking ~3.3% for ~6.6% upside to 0.1715 (R:R ≈ 2:1). Adjust for your risk tolerance and liquidity.

Oversold RSI(14) ≈ 24 → supports bounce.
Price well below 20SMA and lower Bollinger → supports mean reversion.
Hourly basing with higher closes → supports entry timing.
Daily pivot magnet at 0.1735 → offers upside target/anchor.
Elevated ATR and recent capitulation volume → expect choppy path; use disciplined levels.

Key levels to watch in the next 24h

Support: 0.160–0.162 (session acceptance), 0.156–0.158 (must-hold), then 0.150.
Resistance/targets: 0.164–0.165, 0.168–0.171, 0.173–0.175 (pivot zone). Stretch: 0.175–0.178.

Bottom line

The dominant daily trend is down, but the market is acutely oversold and showing early stabilization intraday. A tactical long aiming for a rebound into 0.171–0.173 over the next 24 hours offers a favorable short-term setup with defined risk. If 0.156–0.158 fails, step aside and reassess around 0.150–0.152.