Step-by-Step Technical Analysis: MANTRA (OM)

1. Recent Price Action and Trend Framing

• Price Crash: The chart shows a catastrophic overnight collapse from above $6 to ~$1 on 2025-04-13, with subsequent multi-day capitulation to sub-$0.30 by early June. This is likely the result of a token redenomination, exploit, or major exogenous shock.
• Range-Bound Trading: From mid-June onward, OM traded between $0.19 and $0.23, with occasional spikes above $0.22.
• Current Price: As of July 5, 2025, OM is at $0.2042—near recent local lows.

2. Volume & Liquidity Analysis

• Volume Spike at Crash: The high-volume bars during the initial collapse suggest forced liquidations and panic-selling—usually a sign of capitulation bottoming for a large part of market structure.
• Declining Volume: Post-crash, volumes trended down with each subsequent low, indicating exhaustion in selling pressure but little buyer interest.

3. Support & Resistance

• Support:
  • Key floor: $0.20 (recent local lows, observed repeatedly June 22–Jul 5)
  • Historical: Zonal support around $0.19 (lowest closes and wick tests)
• Resistance:
  • Overhead: $0.22–$0.23 (multiple recent tops, including June 24 spike)
  • $0.21 also acts as soft resistance (numerous failed intraday advances)

4. Moving Averages

• Short-Term (5–10h): Recent closes bounce off $0.204–$0.206, with brief excursions to $0.208. Short-term MAs are flat or gently downward sloping.
• Medium-Term (10–30d): Any longer-term moving average (including 21EMA/50MA) is trending sharply downward, due to the prolonged downtrend. Price currently sits below all but the fastest MAs.

5. Momentum Indicators (RSI, MACD, Stochastics)

• RSI (est. from chart structure): Appears oversold, with repeated touches close to historical local lows, but lacking any clear divergence.
• MACD: Likely bottomed, as histogram flattens and the fast line approaches the slow line from below, but with no strong bullish crossover yet—confirming a pause, not reversal.
• Stochastics: Also oversold, hovering near lower bound, suggesting selling momentum has run its course; but, so far, no reversal signal.

6. Candlestick Pattern Recognition

• Recent Sessions: Mostly show either small-bodied candles (doji, spinning tops) or downward closes with long lower wicks—consistent with uncertain and exhausted sellers.
• Absence of Bullish Engulfing/Reversal Patterns: No clear bullish reversal (like hammer, bullish engulfing) in the past 24–48h.

7. Order Book & Intraday Microstructure

• Micro Range: Highs per hour cluster at $0.208–0.209, while the lows probe $0.202, $0.203. Fair amount of choppiness between $0.2040 and $0.2065. Each rejection at $0.208 is met with swift pullbacks.
• Liquidity Probing: Mini flash-dips to $0.202–0.203 are being bought, but bounces are weak.

8. Pattern Analysis

• Descending Channel: Recent price action from late June to early July forms a choppy descending channel, with lower highs and lower lows.
• No Evidence of Accumulation: The absence of rising lows and rising volume into resistance indicates no real accumulation from major buyers.

9. Fibonacci Retracement (from swing high at $0.23 to low at $0.194)

• Key Levels:
  • 23.6%: $0.204
  • 38.2%: $0.209
  • 50.0%: $0.212
  • 61.8%: $0.215
• Price is stuck beneath 23.6–38.2% retracement level, indicating continued bearish pressure.

10. Volatility & ATR

• ATR Downtrend: Daily ranges have shrunk, reflecting a standoff between remaining sellers and bottom-fishing buyers. Breakout from current vol-crunch state is likely soon.

11. Sentiment & Confirmation

• Sentiment: Severely negative following the crash, with suppressed interest in buying.
• Confirmation: No evidence yet of base-building or real reversal. Bounces are used to sell.

12. Composite Outlook

• Immediate Path: The price pattern suggests a high likelihood of retesting and possibly breaking the $0.20 floor within the next 24 hours, unless unexpected news or a whale buy emerges.
• Risk: If $0.20 is lost, air pocket down to $0.194–$0.19 is possible.
• Upside: Any rallies to $0.208–0.21 are likely to be sold into, and do not represent a change of trend.

13. Trade Plan/Execution

• Bias: Short (Sell) below $0.206–$0.204 zone.
• Ideal Entry: Open near $0.204–$0.205 (current/close to micro-range high for better risk/reward).
• Target: $0.194–$0.197 zone for profit-taking (round number magnet, prior wick low, next demand zone).
• Invalidate above: $0.209, where momentum could squeeze higher for a quick stop-out.

14. Final Decision

• Bearish continuation is favored. Weak bounces, persistent lower highs and repeated retests of $0.20 suggest shorting any uptick is optimal. Market may see a volatility expansion to the downside soon.

---

Conclusion: SHORT setup. Sell/short at or near $0.204–$0.205. Target $0.195 for cover/take-profit within next 24 hours, unless price closes convincingly above $0.209.