MANTRA (OM) Full-Spectrum Technical Analysis – July 2025

1. Trend Analysis (Multi-timeframe)

Weekly Trend:

• From April high of $1.09 to the current price of $0.2126, there is a confirmed strong long-term downtrend (over 80% drawdown in 3 months).
• Price has formed a series of lower highs and lower lows. The decline has been consistent, with only periodic, relatively weak, short-term bounces.

Daily Trend:

• In June, OM broke below the major $0.30 support and continued weaker with little sign of capitulation or reversal.
• Lows in late June ($0.20–$0.21) were briefly broken ($0.195 on June 22), then OM bounced but failed to sustain above $0.22–$0.23.
• For July, the price stays capped under local resistance ($0.23), unable to mark a higher high. Lows have not meaningfully increased.

Hourly Trend:

• Intraday, OM is printing lower highs and has experienced a minor uptick to $0.22, now reverting to $0.2126. There's no momentum break in sight.

Conclusion:

• All timeframes are locked in a bearish structure, with weak countertrend bounces. The path of least resistance remains down.

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2. Support & Resistance Levels

Key Resistance:

• $0.23: Recent daily/4h rejection zone (see July 3–5, July 11 PM, and July 12). Sellers appear every time OM pokes above here.
• $0.215–$0.217: Minor intraday resistance, acting as a midpoint ceiling during the past 48 hours.

Key Support:

• $0.20: Briefly broke on June 22, strong psychological level, pivotal on higher selling volume spikes.
• $0.195: Absolute June low, last-dead-cat-bounce pivot.
• $0.185–$0.19: Next historical support from December 2023 levels (not visible in current series but inferred by context).

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3. Volume and Momentum

• Volume is contracting alongside price, with lower-than-average participation. There is no accumulation evidence (no significant green volume spikes on drops for reversal).
• The spike in volume on July 11 ($0.2213 close) did not mark a shift—it was matched by a return of sellers and a rejection from $0.238. OM's inability to sustain any gains above $0.22–$0.23 after the volume spike is decisively bearish.
• OBV (On-balance Volume) would likely be sloping down, and Volume Price Trend (VPT) is negative—minor rallies on weak volume, selloffs gathering volume.

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4. Oscillator and Momentum Indicators

RSI (Relative Strength Index):

• RSI would be in the 30–35 range, possibly dipping lower on intraday timeframes—oversold, but importantly staying in an oversold region without significant attempt to revert. This can persist in strongly trending (down) markets.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):

• Histogram would be negative; signal line below zero, no bullish crossovers. Divergences are weak, if present at all. No positive momentum shift.

Stochastic Oscillator:

• Deep in the lower band; typically would signal oversold, but as seen, price is making lower closes despite that—a classic sign of strong bears.

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5. Moving Averages

• 20/50/100 EMA (Exponential Moving Averages): Price consistently trading below all relevant short and medium-term moving averages. All moving averages are trending downward.
• Price is being capped at the 20-EMA (which is acting as dynamic resistance), and all rallies are failing to overcome even the shortest EMAs on the 4H and 1H charts.
• The spread between MAs is wide, confirming the momentum of the downtrend and lack of retracement.

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6. Pattern Recognition

Bear Flag / Continuation Patterns:

• Several instances of bear flag or descending channel formation visible in the last two weeks. Every bounce has been followed by a breakdown.

No Double-Bottom Patterns:

• There’s no clear sign of a reversal pattern (double bottom, rounded bottom, or inverse head and shoulders). OM’s attempt to base in the $0.20–$0.22 range repeatedly fails.

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7. Order Book / Market Structure Analysis (Hypothetical)

• The price action shows strong supply absorption at $0.22–$0.23, and thin demand below $0.21, hinting at risk of cascading stops/slippage for any major sell volume event.

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8. Volatility Analysis

• Price moves have contracted, signifying reduced volatility since the last large breakdown from $0.30 to $0.22. However, reduced volatility in a downtrend frequently precedes another expansion lower. The risk is for a volatility-driven move below $0.20.

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9. Event/Risk Factor Review

• There is no sign of news-driven spikes, and the structure looks technically led, not event led. Any sudden large negative catalysts could accelerate the drop due to thin liquidity under $0.20.

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10. Intermarket/Relative Value

• If broader crypto/altcoins remain weak or risk-off, OM is even more at risk due to its already weak structure; OM is underperforming peers.

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11. Summary, 24-Hour Outlook & Trading Decision

• OM is heavily oversold, in a persistent downtrend, making lower lows and lower highs. There are no credible reversal signals. Minor bounces have failed at every resistance level, and support at $0.20 looks vulnerable. Downward momentum dominates, while buyers step away on every rally attempt.
• The optimal trade is shorting OM on a failed bounce or on continuation below $0.21, with a first profit target near June’s lows ($0.20) and extension to $0.195. Risking a stop above the breakdown level ($0.222) ensures favorable R/R.

Trading Playbook (24H):

• Sell (Short Position) on failed bounce into $0.215–$0.217, or momentum breakdown below $0.210
• Take profit at $0.199 (June low), extension target $0.195
• Risk/stop above $0.223

Summary Table

Action	Entry	Target	Stop
Sell (Short)	$0.215	$0.199	$0.223

NOTE: If OM unexpectedly surges above $0.225 on very high volume, a cover or trade reevaluation is warranted; currently, probability favors bears.

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