OM poised for a VWAP reclaim squeeze: buy the 0.275 pullback for a push toward 0.286 within 24h

Step-by-step technical audit of OM (MANTRA)

1. Data sanity and context

• Dataset: Daily OHLCV from May 13 to Aug 8 plus intraday (hourly) for Aug 9–10. Current price: 0.27654.
• Notable events: Massive volume/price spike on Jul 20 (H 0.3899, C 0.3609) and follow-through fade into late July; since Aug 1, price has ranged 0.235–0.285 with tightening volatility.
• Recent action: Aug 6–8 closes 0.2792, 0.2768, 0.2802; Aug 10 hourly coil around 0.276 with higher lows versus early-session dip to 0.2711.

2. Multi-timeframe trend structure

• Long-term (May→now): Downtrend from ~0.44 in May to ~0.20 in late June, punctuated by Jul 20 event spike; structurally still below likely 50D MA, so broader downtrend not yet negated.
• Medium-term (last 20 sessions): Stabilization and basing between ~0.24 and ~0.29; higher lows since Aug 1; constructive sideways-to-up bias.
• Short-term (last 24–48h): Hourly shows compression with mild series of higher lows (0.2731 → 0.2762 → 0.2776), indicating emerging bid into resistance 0.278–0.281.

3. Moving averages (approximations from provided closes)

• 10SMA ≈ 0.2555 (current > 10SMA): Positive short-term momentum.
• 20SMA ≈ 0.2727 (current > 20SMA): Above the intermediate mean; mild bullish bias.
• 50SMA (inferred) > current (given May–June higher prints), so larger trend still down. This MA-stack signals a countertrend bounce within a larger downtrend.
• Read-through: Near-term upward bias but with overhead friction from higher-timeframe sellers.

4. RSI/Stochastic momentum

• Daily RSI(14) ≈ 49–50 (computed from last 14 closes): Neutral, slightly below bullish threshold; ample room to rise without overbought concerns.
• Hourly Stochastic proxy (14) using today’s H/L (0.2900/0.2711) at current 0.2765 → %K ≈ 28–30: near short-term oversold band on intraday basis after a dip-and-coil; this favors a bounce attempt.

5. MACD/Signal (qualitative)

• Daily MACD likely near/below zero but curling up (given move above 10/20SMA and higher lows in August). Histogram likely narrowing toward zero: momentum improving but not yet a confirmed bullish expansion.
• Hourly MACD tends to flip near zero in compressions; given higher lows and flat tops, risk skew is toward a positive cross on a modest volume uptick.

6. Volatility: Bollinger, ATR, Keltner

• Daily Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid ≈ 0.2727. With recent range, estimated ±0.030–0.033: lower ≈ 0.24, upper ≈ 0.305. Current at 0.2765 sits slightly above midline → neutral-to-bullish.
• Hourly Bollinger: Visible squeeze; bandwidth tight (~1.5–2.5 cents across the day), symptomatic of upcoming volatility expansion.
• Daily ATR compressed versus July; hourly ATR subdued, favoring mean reversion trades or narrow-range breakouts.

7. Support/Resistance map (confluence-driven)

• Intraday supports: 0.273–0.274 (multiple hourly touches), S1 pivot cluster ~0.271; deeper support 0.269–0.270 (Aug 8 L 0.2693).
• Near resistances: 0.278–0.282 (intraday supply and micro range top), 0.286–0.290 (hourly highs and pivot R1 neighborhood). Stronger daily resistance: 0.295–0.300 (38.2% Fib/psych round), 0.313–0.320 (50% Fib/late-July supply).
• Takeaway: The 0.286–0.290 band is the pivotal cap for the next 24h; sustained acceptance above would open 0.294–0.300.

8. Fibonacci context (Jul 31 L 0.2378 → Jul 20 H 0.3899 retracement)

• Range: 0.1521. Key retraces from the July 31 low 0.2378: 38.2% ≈ 0.2959; 50% ≈ 0.3138; 61.8% ≈ 0.3317.
• Current price below 38.2%: medium-term trend still corrective; any rally into 0.296–0.314 likely meets supply without strong volume.

9. Pivots (Classic) using Aug 8 H/L/C = 0.2851/0.2693/0.2802

• Pivot P ≈ 0.27819; R1 ≈ 0.28712; S1 ≈ 0.27126; R2 ≈ 0.29404; S2 ≈ 0.26233.
• Current 0.2765 is just below P; a reclaim of P sets a magnet to R1 0.287, matching the 0.286–0.290 cap zone.

10. Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Daily: Price likely below cloud but above Tenkan and near/above Kijun given recent basing; Tenkan> Kijun or curling cross would align with a short-term relief bounce; cloud resistance expected ahead (0.29–0.31 zone) matching our R1/R2/Fib confluences.

11. Volume/OBV/Wyckoff lens

• July 20–21 distribution spike followed by markdown; since Aug 1, diminishing volume on declines and respectable volume on up days (Aug 6) → accumulation footprints. OBV (qualitatively) stabilizing, not trending down aggressively.
• Wyckoff: Potential Phase B/C of re-accumulation within 0.26–0.29; today’s intraday higher lows suggest a test of supply at 0.278–0.282.

12. Candles and micro-structure

• Recent daily small-bodied candles with upper/lower wicks indicate two-way trade but shrinking ranges (compression). Intraday on Aug 10 shows doji-like prints and a mild ascending base.
• Pattern: Intraday ascending triangle-ish behavior with flat-ish tops ~0.278–0.279 and rising lows; a modest breakout targets 0.286–0.288 (measured move ≈ 0.007–0.009 added to 0.279).

13. VWAP and mean-reversion bias (intraday)

• Approx today’s VWAP ~0.276–0.277; price rotating near VWAP after defending 0.273–0.274; buyers active near/under VWAP, suggesting long entries on slight pullbacks are favored with tight risk.

14. Keltner vs Bollinger squeeze

• Bollinger bands are tighter than Keltner on the hourly, signaling squeeze conditions; break direction often follows micro-trend (upward tilting lows). Probability-weighted skew is modestly up.

15. Scenario analysis for next 24h

• Base case (55%): Range expansion up into 0.286–0.288 after VWAP reclaim; stalls near pivot R1; close within 0.281–0.286.
• Bear case (30%): Sweep down to 0.271–0.273 (S1/stop-hunt), holds higher-timeframe support, then reverts to mean near 0.278; choppy session.
• Bull extension (15%): Clean break above 0.290 on rising volume → quick tag 0.294–0.296; fading likely into that Fib/previous supply.

16. Trade design (24h tactical swing)

• Bias: Buy-the-dip within 0.274–0.276 to target the R1 band 0.286–0.288, taking advantage of intraday squeeze and higher lows while respecting the 0.286–0.290 lid.
• Entry: Limit near 0.2753–0.2756 (slightly below current, above dense support, improves RR if wick-down occurs).
• Stop (risk control, not in output fields): 0.2698 (below S1 and Aug 8 low cluster), risking ~0.0055–0.0060.
• Take profit: 0.2860–0.2870 (just beneath R1/overhead supply to increase fill probability). R:R ≈ 1.7–2.1 depending on exact fill.

17. Why Buy vs Sell now?

• Pro-buy factors: Above 10/20SMA; hourly higher lows; RSI neutral with room; pivot map favors mean reversion up to R1; Bollinger squeeze with upward skew; VWAP proximity with bids seen on dips.
• Anti-sell factors: Shorting into 0.273–0.276 support risks a squeeze back to R1; better short entries would be 0.286–0.290 or >0.295 if rejection appears.

18. Risk notes

• If 0.271 fails on strong volume, expect quick test of 0.269–0.270 then 0.265; that would negate the long thesis in this 24h window.
• If breakout volume is strong, partial profit at 0.286 and runner to 0.294 is reasonable, but primary plan remains conservative given overhead supply.

24-hour price path expectation

• Expected range: 0.271–0.287 (biased to topside). Stretch targets: 0.294 on bullish extension; downside tail risk to 0.268 on failed support sweep.

Bottom line

• Play the squeeze toward R1: accumulate on a minor pullback, exit into 0.286 area ahead of the 0.286–0.290 supply wall.