Fade The Weekend Bounce: Shorting MANTRA (OM) Into 0.224–0.227 Supply

Summary view

• Timeframe focus: Daily trend is down; intraday (1H) is a weak corrective bounce. Expect choppy upside into resistance, then another leg lower within 24 hours.
• 24h bias: Fade the bounce. Probable range 0.213–0.226; high-probability supply at 0.224–0.227; supports at 0.216–0.214 and 0.210.

Step-by-step technical dissection

1. Market structure and trend

• Daily structure: Clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows from the Aug 10 swing (~0.29) through successive breakdowns (0.241 → 0.233 → 0.214/0.209). The strong July 20 spike was fully retraced; distribution followed by persistent supply.
• Intraday (1H): Since the Aug 29 low (0.2095), price has made marginally higher intraday highs/lows up to ~0.220, forming a gentle ascending channel. This looks corrective (overlapping, low momentum), typical of a bear flag within a broader downtrend.

2. Key levels (multi-timeframe S/R)

• Resistance/supply: • 0.224–0.227: Confluence zone (Fibonacci 50–61.8% of the 8/29 dump, 1H channel top, prior breakdown shelf). Primary short area. • 0.229–0.233: Heavier supply (8/27–8/29 pivot cluster; 78.6% retrace; daily resistance shelf). If price accepts above this, bear thesis weakens.
• Support/demand: • 0.216–0.214: Intraday pullback shelf from today’s grind higher; minor demand. • 0.212–0.210: 8/29 low zone and liquidity pocket; high-probability magnet if the bounce fails. • 0.201–0.205: Next daily demand block if 0.209 breaks on momentum.

3. Fibonacci mapping (last dominant swing)

• Swing: 8/29 high 0.2368 → low 0.2095. • 38.2% = ~0.2199 (just tested/held; price slightly above now) • 50% = ~0.2232 • 61.8% = ~0.2264 • 78.6% = ~0.2310
• Implication: The current bounce is straddling 38.2%; optimal fade sits at 50–61.8% (0.223–0.226). A probe toward 0.226–0.227 is ideal for entry.

4. Moving averages

• Daily: Price remains below declining short-/intermediate-term MAs (e.g., 20D/50D SMAs), confirming a bearish regime. Rallies into those MAs historically sold.
• 1H: Short MAs (e.g., 20/50 EMA) have curled up but sit below or near heavier resistance. Expect them to flatten if price stalls at 0.224–0.226.

5. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI: Sub-50, likely in the high 30s/low 40s; bear market RSI characteristics (rallies fade near 50–55 RSI). No bullish divergence of consequence since trend persistently lower; momentum regime still negative.
• 1H RSI: Mid-50s to low-60s on the grind up, showing waning momentum near resistance. Failure to push into high-60s on approach to 0.224–0.226 would validate a fade.
• MACD: Daily below zero with a modest histogram contraction—typical of a weak counter-trend bounce. 1H MACD positive but shallow; watch for a turn down near the 0.224–0.226 zone.

6. Volatility and Bollinger Bands

• Daily: Price recently rode the lower band and has re-entered the bands. In downtrends, the first reversion to the mid-band (approx the 20D MA) often fails; that mid-band is well above current (~0.24–0.25), indicating room for rallies to fail early.
• 1H: Bands are relatively tight (squeeze-like). Squeezes exiting into higher-timeframe resistance have higher failure rates. Expect expansion soon; bias for downside once the 0.224–0.226 test completes.

7. Volume, OBV, and participation

• Distribution profile: Massive July distribution followed by steady net outflows; OBV trend biased lower. Recent bounce occurs on mediocre weekend volumes—not the signature of sustainable accumulation.
• 8/27 uptick in volume didn’t produce follow-through; 8/29’s drop saw heavier sell-side pressure. Today’s uptick is on lighter volume.

8. Ichimoku lens (contextual)

• Daily: Price below Kumo; Kijun/Tenkan overhead. Any tests of conversion/base lines near ~0.23–0.24 likely meet supply.
• 1H: Price is attempting to approach the cloud top; projected cloud ahead remains thin/flat—resistance aligns with 0.224–0.226.

9. DMI/ADX

• Daily: -DI > +DI with ADX elevated enough to respect trend; trend-following shorts remain valid on rallies. No clear DI cross signaling regime change.
• 1H: +DI marginally above -DI during bounce; ADX low—signals weak trendiness, more of a corrective drift than impulsive buying.

10. VWAP and mean-reversion cues

• Intraday session VWAP sits slightly below current price, acting as mild support during the grind. If price spikes into 0.224–0.226 and rolls back under VWAP, expect a quick mean reversion toward 0.216–0.214.

11. Pattern diagnostics

• Bear flag: The intraday channel from 0.2095 to ~0.220 with tight ranges and overlapping candles is classic flag behavior. Continuations typically resolve in the direction of the prior impulse (down).
• Potential liquidity sweep: A wick through 0.226–0.227 to tag stops before reversal is plausible; patience on entry sizing is key.

12. Risk framing, targets, and invalidation

• Primary setup: Short the 0.224–0.227 supply. Target the 0.213–0.212 demand region within 24 hours.
• Invalidation: Sustained acceptance above 0.229–0.233 (close back inside that prior supply shelf) weakens the short and risks a move toward 0.236–0.240.
• Risk/reward: Short 0.2248, TP 0.2128, suggested SL ~0.2296 yields roughly 2.3–2.6R depending on fill.

13. 24-hour path expectation

• Base case (60%): Grind up toward 0.224–0.226 during thin weekend liquidity, reject, then traverse back to 0.214–0.212.
• Alt bullish (25%): Quick push through 0.227, brief test of 0.229–0.233, then stall. Only above 0.233 would momentum extend toward 0.236–0.240.
• Alt bearish (15%): Immediate fade from current 0.220 without tagging ideal entry; straight drop to 0.214–0.212.

Execution notes

• Entry method: Staggered limit orders across 0.2242 / 0.2248 / 0.2258 to improve average fill; first rejection candle on 15–60m with RSI rollover improves timing.
• Management: If trade triggers and price reclaims 0.227 with increasing volume, tighten risk quickly; if it fails VWAP post-entry, consider adding on a weak retest.

Risk reminder: This is a technical view on a high-volatility token. Use strict position sizing and pre-defined stops. Weekend books are thin; slippage is possible.